2024年7月人民币汇率市场预测：汇率POLL：平稳延续

Exchange Rate Forecast - The market's short to medium-term expectations for the RMB exchange rate remain stable, with predicted values of 7.26, 7.25, 7.25, and 7.15 for the end of July 2024, September 2024, December 2024, and June 2025 respectively[2]. - The highest and lowest predicted values for the same periods are 7.35 (highest) and 7.15 (lowest) for 1 month, 7.45 (highest) and 7.00 (lowest) for 3 months, 7.52 (highest) and 7.00 (lowest) for 6 months, and 7.65 (highest) and 6.90 (lowest) for 12 months[6]. Market Sentiment - The expectation of RMB depreciation has dissipated, with a prevailing sentiment of "stability with a slight upward trend" in the exchange rate due to a stable foreign trade environment and potential interest rate cuts by the ECB and other Western central banks[2][3]. - The capital market's recovery foundation is expected to strengthen as the RMB exchange rate stabilizes, leading to a potential upward trend in market expectations[3][15]. Economic Influences - The main factors influencing the exchange rate are shifting towards economic growth and inflation, with the impact of interest rate parity diminishing[3]. - China's economic recovery is anticipated to continue, supported by stable policy expectations and a favorable inflation outlook, which may lead to a gradual appreciation of the RMB[3][18]. Geopolitical Factors - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, are altering the international financial landscape and may impact commodity markets and overall financial stability[7][18].