海外观察：2024年二季度美国GDP：美国经济继续慢着陆

Economic Overview - The U.S. economy is experiencing a slow cooling, with Q2 2024 GDP growth at 2.8%, exceeding the forecast of 2.0% and the previous value of 1.4%[22] - The core PCE inflation rate for Q2 2024 is at 2.9%, higher than the expected 2.7% and lower than the previous 3.7%[22] Consumer and Investment Trends - Consumer spending remains the largest support for the U.S. economy, contributing 1.6% to GDP growth, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5%[23] - Residential investment has declined, with an annualized quarter-on-quarter decrease of 1.4%, down from a positive growth of 16% in Q1 2024, contributing -0.05% to GDP[3] - Business investments in construction, equipment, and intellectual property have increased by 5.3%, 1.8%, and 4.6% respectively, driven by transportation and information processing equipment[24] Inventory and Trade Impact - Private sector inventory increased, contributing 0.8% to GDP growth, marking it as the second-largest contributor after consumer spending[7] - The trade deficit continues to weigh on GDP growth, with imports rising by 4.9% and exports by 3.5%, resulting in a 0.7% drag on GDP growth[8] Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - There are hopes for a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, with no signs of a sharp recession, although market volatility is expected to increase[4] - The strong dollar and limited growth in overseas economies are negatively impacting U.S. exports, indicating resilient domestic demand despite trade deficits[8]