社会服务行业免税与旅游中期策略：下半年基数有望走低，关注潜在政策拉动消费回流

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales performance in the duty-free sector showed divergence in the first half of 2024, with Hainan experiencing a decline in average spending per customer despite an increase in visitor numbers during peak travel seasons [2][12] - The outlook for the second half of 2024 suggests a potential recovery in sales growth due to a lower comparative base and policy changes aimed at boosting consumer spending [2][19] Summary by Sections Duty-Free - 2024 H1 Review: Sales in Hainan's duty-free sector faced pressure due to high comparative bases from 2023, with first-quarter visitor numbers exceeding expectations but second-quarter numbers declining [9][12] - 2024 H2 Outlook: The report anticipates a lower comparative base for sales growth in Hainan's duty-free sector, with a focus on the potential turning point for year-on-year growth [2][19] - Sales Data: The average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free sector decreased significantly, with a 16.08% drop during the Spring Festival and a 21.27% drop during the May Day holiday compared to the previous year [12][14] Tourism - 2024 H1 Review: The tourism sector maintained high activity levels during holidays, with significant increases in travel and revenue, particularly during the New Year and Spring Festival [28] - 2024 H2 Outlook: The report suggests that tourism hotspots in Northeast and Northwest China are expected to emerge, driven by seasonal demand and improved transportation [2][19] - Visitor Trends: The report notes a steady recovery in international flight operations, which is expected to enhance the duty-free shopping experience at airports [15][19] Key Companies Investment Ratings - Changbai Mountain: Market cap of 54.99 billion yuan, with a "Hold" rating [3] - Jiuhua Tourism: Market cap of 31.93 billion yuan, with a "Hold" rating [3] - Huangshan Tourism: Market cap of 78.12 billion yuan, with a "Hold" rating [3] - Songcheng Performance: Market cap of 202.30 billion yuan, with a "Hold" rating [3] - Sante Cableway: Market cap of 21.74 billion yuan, with a "Hold" rating [3] - Lijiang Co.: Market cap of 45.66 billion yuan, with a "Hold" rating [3] - Tianmu Lake: Market cap of 26.18 billion yuan, with a "Buy" rating [3] - China Youth Travel Service: Market cap of 69.42 billion yuan, with a "Hold" rating [3]