基础化工行业深度报告：复合肥行业景气向上，布局磷矿未来可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the compound fertilizer industry [2]. Core Viewpoints - The compound fertilizer industry is experiencing an upward trend due to stricter policies and supply disruptions, leading to increased industry concentration. The stable development of the fertilizer industry is directly related to national food security [2][3]. - The demand for compound fertilizers is expected to remain strong in the long term, driven by food security concerns and an increasing compound fertilizer application rate, which has risen from 22% in 2000 to 47% in 2022, with significant room for growth compared to developed countries [2][3]. - The integration of upstream phosphate resources is anticipated to enhance cost control and industrial synergy for fertilizer companies, with a focus on companies like Yuntu Holdings, Yuntianhua, and Xinyangfeng [3]. Summary by Sections 1. Policy Tightening and Supply Disruptions - The compound fertilizer industry is characterized by low concentration, with over 3,000 companies holding production licenses, most of which are small and face severe product homogeneity. The CR5 and CR10 for the industry are approximately 14% and 37% respectively in 2023 [2][14]. - Stricter environmental regulations and policies aimed at reducing fertilizer usage are expected to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, thereby increasing industry concentration [14][16]. 2. Long-term Demand for Compound Fertilizers - Global crop planting areas are expected to stabilize or increase, supporting fertilizer demand. The Chinese government continues to emphasize food security, which is crucial for maintaining stable planting areas [20][21]. - The compound fertilizer application rate in China has significant growth potential, with the current rate at 47%, compared to 70%-80% in developed countries. This indicates a long-term upward trend in demand for compound fertilizers [20][22]. 3. Price Trends and Supply-Demand Dynamics - The price of compound fertilizers is influenced by the costs of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium, which account for about 90% of production costs. Recent trends show a rebound in prices due to improved supply-demand dynamics [27][29]. - The phosphate supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, with the price index for monoammonium phosphate increasing by approximately 36% year-on-year as of June 28, 2024 [27][31]. 4. Integration of Upstream Phosphate Resources - The report highlights the importance of securing phosphate resources for cost control and industry development. China's phosphate reserves are concentrated in a few provinces, with a low average grade of 17% [31][33]. - The "Three Phosphorus" rectification policies and stricter environmental regulations are expected to reduce the supply of phosphate rock, further impacting the industry [33].