行业深度报告：复合肥行业景气向上，布局磷矿未来可期

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the compound fertilizer industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The compound fertilizer industry is experiencing an upward trend in demand due to stricter policies and supply disruptions, leading to increased industry concentration [2][3] - The long-term demand for compound fertilizers is expected to improve, driven by food security concerns and an increase in the compound fertilizer application rate [3][20] - The supply-demand balance for phosphate rock is likely to continue, benefiting leading companies with resource and scale advantages [3][30] Summary by Sections 1. Policy Tightening and Supply Disruptions - The compound fertilizer industry is crucial for national food security, with most domestic companies being small and facing severe product homogeneity [2][15] - The industry concentration is expected to increase as outdated production capacity exits the market due to tightening safety and environmental regulations [15][19] - The effective production capacity of compound fertilizers in 2023 is approximately 140 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of about 2% [15] 2. Long-term Demand for Compound Fertilizers - Global crop planting areas are expected to remain stable or increase, supporting fertilizer demand [21] - The compound fertilizer application rate in China has risen from 22% in 2000 to 47% in 2022, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed countries [20][22] - The demand for compound fertilizers is expected to grow due to the increasing proportion of economic crops, which require higher fertilizer quality and quantity [24] 3. Integration of Upstream Phosphate Resources - The acquisition of phosphate rock resources is beneficial for cost control and industry synergy for compound fertilizer companies [3][30] - The average grade of phosphate rock in China is about 17%, significantly lower than that of major producing countries like Morocco [32] - The domestic phosphate rock production is projected to decline, with a nearly 38% decrease from its peak in 2017 due to ongoing environmental regulations [35]