红旗连锁：业绩稳健增长，Q2利润端有所波动

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is not explicitly stated in the provided documents, but the performance metrics suggest a stable outlook with potential for growth in the coming years [1]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.186 billion yuan for H1 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 3.67%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 267 million yuan, up 3.81% [1]. - The company’s main business, convenience store operations, showed revenue growth consistent with industry trends, achieving a total revenue of 5.791 billion yuan in H1 2024, a 3.62% increase [1]. - The company has completed the upgrade of 202 old stores and opened 16 new stores, bringing the total number of stores to 3,655 as of June 30, 2024 [1]. - The company has strengthened its online platform collaborations, attracting 5.35 million customers to physical stores through online channels, with online sales nearing 500 million yuan [1]. Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2024, the company achieved a net cash flow from operating activities of 435 million yuan, a decrease of 19.79% [1]. - The company’s revenue for Q2 2024 was 2.515 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.75%, while the net profit for the same period was 1.03 billion yuan, down 10.95% [1]. - The company’s gross profit margin for 2024 is projected to remain stable at 29.6% [3]. - The forecasted revenue for 2024-2026 is 10.43 billion, 10.68 billion, and 10.89 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 2.9%, 2.4%, and 2.0% [2][3]. - The projected net profit for the same period is 599 million, 616 million, and 625 million yuan, with growth rates of 6.8%, 2.9%, and 1.4% [2][3]. Market and Competitive Position - The company’s main revenue sources include food, tobacco, and daily necessities, contributing 43.85%, 34.97%, and 13.59% to total revenue, respectively [1]. - The company’s investment in new online banking and other ventures has seen a slight decline in returns, with investment income from joint ventures down by 4% year-on-year [1]. - The company is expected to benefit from the approval of resource integration and collaborative development by the Sichuan State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission [1].