宏观及大类资产配置中期策略报告【2024年7月】：稳旧促新，探寻确定性机会

Group 1 - The concept of "new quality productivity" is introduced as a core element of technology-intensive industries, emphasizing innovation and high-quality development [1][2][63]. - New quality productivity is defined as an advanced production capacity characterized by high technology, efficiency, and quality, aligning with new development concepts [2][63]. - The transformation from traditional economic growth models to new quality productivity is essential for achieving high-quality economic development [63][64]. Group 2 - Global economic recovery is uneven, with the U.S. showing strong domestic demand despite a slight GDP decline, while Europe is recovering from a technical recession [5][17]. - The U.S. labor market is stabilizing, with a balanced employment situation and a low unemployment rate of around 4%, allowing the Federal Reserve to focus on inflation control [7][17]. - Domestic economic indicators show a decline in price levels, with the GDP deflator negative for five consecutive quarters, indicating a potential "debt-deflation spiral" affecting economic momentum [8][11]. Group 3 - High-elasticity consumer spending has significantly declined, while low-elasticity consumption continues to expand, indicating a shift in consumer behavior [9][10]. - The traditional economic momentum, particularly in real estate, faces challenges, impacting various sectors including finance and manufacturing [11][12]. - Export growth remains a crucial driver for the domestic economy, with a 2.7% increase in exports in the first five months of the year, supported by global manufacturing expansion [26][21]. Group 4 - The report highlights the need for a dual approach in macroeconomic strategy, maintaining traditional economic momentum while fostering new momentum for high-quality development [65][63]. - The transition from capital-intensive industries to technology-intensive industries is necessary to meet the demands of high-quality economic growth [42][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of innovation and advanced productivity in driving economic development, moving away from inefficient production methods [64][63].