证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 龙头纸企提价待落地 【2026.2.9-2026.2.15】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2026.2.25 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 造纸行情走势图 纸品价格保持平稳，龙头提价节奏延续：本周纸品价格整体平 稳，箱板纸、瓦楞纸、白卡纸、白板纸价格均与上周持平。行 业提价逻辑持续强化，玖龙等龙头此前已落地 2 月调价，3 月 提价计划明确，白卡纸春节后提价概率较高，叠加多数纸厂停 机检修导致供给收缩，为后续纸价上行奠定基础。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 纸浆库存回升价格下行，供需格局相对宽松：纸浆期货库存升 至 15.46 万吨（周增 8165 吨），期货收盘价下降 84 元/吨至 5160 元/吨；国内漂 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 供需格局优化，动力煤价稳中有升 【2026.2.9-2026.2.15】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2026.2.25 煤炭行情走势图 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 风险提示 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 动力煤方面，本周动力煤各环节价格呈现震荡上行态势。港口 端、产地端与国际端价格均上涨。短期来看，节后上下游复工 复产推进，叠加库存处于低位，煤价有望延续偏强运行，中长 期在供给约束与需求韧性支撑下，价格将向合理区间修复，维 持窄幅震荡。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 炼焦煤方面，本周炼焦煤各环节价格呈现弱稳分化态势。港口 端价格周环比持平，产地端价格稳中有降，国际端澳洲峰景矿 硬焦煤 FOB 价周环比小幅下降。整体来看， ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 行业评级：看好 核心观点 发布日期：2026.2.25 煤炭行情走势图 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 供需格局优化，动力煤价稳中有升 【2026.2.9-2026.2.15】 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 动力煤方面，本周动力煤各环节价格呈现震荡上行态势。港口 端、产地端与国际端价格均上涨。短期来看，节后上下游复工 复产推进，叠加库存处于低位，煤价有望延续偏强运行，中长 期在供给约束与需求韧性支撑下，价格将向合理区间修复，维 持窄幅震荡。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 炼焦煤方面，本周炼焦煤各环节价格呈现弱稳分化态势。港口 端价格周环比持平，产地端价格稳中有降，国际端澳洲峰景矿 硬焦煤 FOB 价周环比小幅下降。整体来看， ...

存储芯片或进入卖方市场，如何抓住布局机会？ 【20260209-20260215】 | ◼ | 市场回顾：上周权益市场主要指数集体收涨，科创 50 指数涨 | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 最大，上涨 3.37%；申万一级行业涨跌互现，多数行业指数未 | 大同证券研究中心 | | | 能跑赢万得全 A 指数；债券市场长短端利率集体下行，其中十 | 分析师：杨素婷 | | | 年期国债下行 1.74BP 至 1.793%，10Y-1Y 期限利差有所收窄, | 执业证书编号： | | | 长短端信用利差均有所收窄；基金市场中偏股基金指数和二级 | S0770524020002 | | | 债基指数均周度收涨，中长期纯债基金指数和短期纯债基金指 | 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn | | | 数均周度收涨。 | | | ◼ | 权益类产品配置策略： | 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山 | | ➢ | 事件驱动策略：（1）SK 海力士：存储芯片行业已全面进入卖 | 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 | | | 方市场，可关注：博时半导体主题 A(012650)、嘉实科技创新 ...

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 2 月 24 日 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号： S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号 山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址： 新年新气象 市场或迎"暖春" 【20260209-20260215】 核心观点 大类资产总览：节前仍显波动，但暖意初现。 节前一周，权益市场波动幅度仍然较大，叠加前期获利资金 的了结与板块的轮动，市场经历了频繁且大幅的波动，这种 波动在节前稍显缓和，但依旧存在，在长假期带来的不确定 性中，场内资金仍处于分歧与调整的阶段。但同样也可以看 出，在历经了为期两周的调整后，节前市场虽有波动，但暖 意初现，一方面，场内成交金额持续维持较高区间，对市场 形成有效支撑；另一方面，投资者虽对长假期所带来的短期 不确定性有一定担忧，但中长期对市场依然有较大信心，因 此，前期的回调并未对市场引起较大的扰动。而债市则迎来 短期"蜜月周期"，资金面的持续宽松和权益市场、商品市 场逸散的低风险资金，都为债市短期是上行带来了充足的资 金补充。商品市场仍在回落，贵金属前期过 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The paper industry is experiencing a stable supply-demand balance, with leading companies implementing price increases. For instance, the average price of whiteboard paper has risen by 14 RMB/ton, while major players like Nine Dragons have raised prices for various paper types by 30-50 RMB/ton, with further increases planned for March [2][3] - The pulp inventory has increased to 146,400 tons, with a slight decrease in futures closing price to 5,244 RMB/ton. Despite short-term price fluctuations, the supply-demand balance remains tight, alleviating cost pressures on paper product profitability [2][12] - The industry is undergoing a green transformation, supported by policies promoting low-carbon initiatives. Leading companies are adopting renewable energy practices, indicating a clear trend towards "greening, scaling, and securing" the industry [2][9] Summary by Sections Industry News - Nine Dragons has announced price increases for corrugated paper and recycled paper across its eight bases, effective February 2, with further adjustments planned [3][4][5][6][11] High-Frequency Data - The pulp futures market shows a slight increase in inventory and a decrease in closing prices, indicating a stable market environment [12] - Domestic paper prices are generally stable, with specific increases noted in whiteboard paper due to reduced production from smaller mills [20] Company Events and Announcements - Zhejiang Jingxing Paper Industry has been recognized as one of the top 500 innovative enterprises in Zhejiang Province, highlighting its strong innovation capabilities [25][26] - Guangxi Jin Gui Pulp and Paper has successfully launched a new production line, enhancing its capacity and market reach [28] Investment Strategy - The current phase of the industry is characterized by "profit recovery and long-term growth." It is recommended to focus on companies with pricing elasticity and those benefiting from policy support. The strategy includes monitoring price adjustments and production halts among leading companies [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - Leading paper companies are intensively raising prices, with prices for whiteboard paper increasing by 14 RMB/ton, while prices for boxboard, corrugated paper, and white card paper remain stable. The price increase actions are concentrated, with Nine Dragons Paper raising prices for various paper types by 30-50 RMB/ton in February, and planning another increase of 50 RMB/ton in March. The probability of price increases for white card paper after the Spring Festival is high, supported by a reduction in supply due to increased downtime among small paper mills [2][3][11] - The pulp inventory has rebounded to 146,400 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 4,000 tons, while the closing price of pulp futures has decreased by 42 RMB/ton to 5,244 RMB/ton. The domestic prices for bleached needle pulp and bleached broadleaf pulp have slightly decreased, while international pulp prices remain stable. Short-term price fluctuations do not alter the tight balance of supply and demand, and cost pressures on paper product profitability are gradually easing [2][12] - The industry is experiencing a policy-driven green transformation, with suggestions to establish a green energy technology exchange platform to promote low-carbon transitions. Leading companies are practicing green development through renewable energy utilization, indicating a clear trend towards "greening, scaling, and securing" the industry [2][9] Summary by Sections Industry News - Nine Dragons Paper has announced price increases for corrugated paper and recycled paper across its eight bases, with increases of 30-50 RMB/ton starting from February 2 [3][4][5][6] - The pulp import structure in China is highly concentrated, with significant reliance on a few resource countries, highlighting potential supply chain risks [7] High-Frequency Data - The pulp futures market shows a marginal increase in inventory and a decrease in closing prices, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [12] - Domestic paper prices are stable, with slight increases in specific categories, while overall market activity remains subdued [20] Company Events and Announcements - Jiangxi Jingxing Paper has been recognized as one of the top 500 innovative enterprises in Zhejiang Province, reflecting its strong innovation capabilities [25][26] - Guangxi Jin Gui Pulp and Paper has successfully launched a new production line, enhancing its capacity and contributing to the green development of the industry [28] Investment Strategy - The current phase of the industry is characterized by "profit recovery and long-term growth," with a focus on "price elasticity and policy benefits." Investors are advised to track the progress of price increases and the operational status of paper companies, while also considering the long-term growth potential of companies with green technology advantages [32]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Insights - Leading paper companies are intensively raising prices, with prices for whiteboard paper increasing by 14 RMB/ton, while prices for boxboard, corrugated paper, and white card paper remain stable. The price increase actions are concentrated, with Nine Dragons Paper raising prices for various paper types by 30-50 RMB/ton in February and planning another increase of 50 RMB/ton in March. The probability of price increases for white card paper after the Spring Festival is high, supported by a reduction in supply due to increased shutdowns of small paper mills [2][3][11] - The pulp inventory has rebounded to 146,400 tons, with a week-on-week increase of 4,000 tons, while the closing price of pulp futures has decreased by 42 RMB/ton to 5,244 RMB/ton. The domestic prices for bleached needle pulp and bleached broadleaf pulp have slightly decreased, while international pulp prices remain stable. Short-term price fluctuations do not alter the tight balance of supply and demand, and cost pressures on paper product profitability are gradually easing [2][12] - The industry is experiencing a critical phase of "profit recovery + long-term growth," focusing on "price elasticity + policy benefits." The report suggests capitalizing on the price increase of leading companies and investing in companies benefiting from green transformation, as the establishment of a green energy technology exchange platform is expected to accelerate the industry's low-carbon transition [2][32] Summary by Sections Industry News - Nine Dragons Paper has announced price increases for corrugated paper and recycled paper across its eight bases, with prices rising by 30-50 RMB/ton starting February 2 [3][4][5][6] - The report highlights the importance of establishing a green energy technology exchange platform to assist traditional industries in their low-carbon transition, as suggested by representatives at the Shandong Provincial People's Congress [9] High-Frequency Data - The pulp futures market shows a marginal increase in inventory and a decrease in closing prices, indicating a stable supply-demand balance [12] - Domestic paper prices are generally stable, with specific increases noted in whiteboard paper prices [20] Company Events and Announcements - Jiangxi Jingxing Paper has been recognized as one of the top 500 innovative enterprises in Zhejiang Province, reflecting its strong innovation capabilities [25][26] - Guangxi Jin Gui Pulp and Paper has successfully launched a new production line, enhancing its capacity and contributing to the green development of the industry [28][30] Investment Strategy - The report recommends focusing on leading companies with price elasticity and those benefiting from green policies, while monitoring the progress of price increases and the operational status of paper companies [32]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is experiencing significant volatility, while the bond market is on the rise. Investor sentiment is cautious, leading to a lack of clear direction in the market [2][7][10] - The A-share market has seen increased fluctuations, with multiple trading days showing swings exceeding 2%. This is attributed to the collective adjustment of commodity sectors like metals and gold, alongside heightened risk aversion as the year-end approaches [3][10][11] - The report suggests a "wait and see" approach, emphasizing the need for investors to remain cautious as the market seeks a clear leading trend amidst increased volatility and uncertainty due to the upcoming 10-day market closure [3][11] Group 2 - The bond market is experiencing upward momentum due to dual external and internal factors, including the diversion of risk-averse funds from the equity and commodity markets, and a reduction in selling pressure on U.S. Treasuries as the Federal Reserve pauses interest rate cuts [4][31] - Despite the short-term opportunities in the bond market, there are concerns about potential renewed pressure from the equity and commodity markets as the economy continues to recover [5][31] - The recommendation for bond market investment is to focus on short-duration bonds, which may perform better in the current environment of fluctuating interest rates and market conditions [5][31] Group 3 - The commodity market is under pressure, with significant declines led by precious metals, resulting in increased risk levels. Investors are advised to take profits amid heightened volatility, which may deter new external investments [38] - The long-term outlook for the commodity market remains positive, driven by economic recovery and supply-demand dynamics, particularly for gold, which is expected to maintain its upward trajectory [38] - Investment strategies for commodities suggest maintaining positions in gold while avoiding high-risk entries in metals and crude oil, with opportunities for long-term investments during price dips [38]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation due to the dual weakness in supply and demand before the Spring Festival, but the certainty of supply contraction and rigid demand will offset each other, limiting the downward space for coal prices [4][12] - The market for thermal coal is experiencing a supply contraction, with prices showing a slight decline, while the demand remains supported by heating needs due to cold weather [11][12] - The coking coal market is seeing marginal adjustments in supply and demand, with prices fluctuating, and the overall supply remains tight [23][24] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The A-share market is experiencing overall fluctuations, with the coal sector outperforming the index, as funds shift from high-valuation technology and precious metals to low-valuation, high-prosperity sectors like consumption and aviation services [5][36] - The average daily trading volume in the market is 2.41 trillion yuan, indicating high market activity despite increased volatility [5] Thermal Coal - The supply-demand structure for thermal coal is improving, with supply constraints from major production areas due to safety regulations and the upcoming Spring Festival [11][12] - Prices for thermal coal are showing a mixed trend, with slight increases at ports and declines in some production areas [12][13] - The average price for Shanxi Datong thermal coal (Q5500) is 565 yuan/ton, down 7 yuan from the previous week [13] Coking Coal - The coking coal market is experiencing a mixed price trend, with some prices declining while others remain stable [24][25] - The average price for Shanxi Gujiao No. 2 coking coal is reported at 1250 yuan/ton, down 64 yuan from the previous week [25] - The overall supply remains tight, with independent coking plants showing a slight increase in operating rates [23][24] Shipping Situation - The shipping situation shows an increase in volume but a decrease in price, with various routes experiencing slight declines in shipping costs [33] Industry News - Significant collaborations are being established in the coal industry, such as the resource exchange agreement between Shaanxi Coal and Yanchang Petroleum [34] - The coal industry is undergoing a transformation towards a dual focus on raw materials and fuel, with policies aimed at controlling coal consumption in key regions [34]