证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 包装纸提价潮延续，造纸板块盈利修复可期 【2025.10.13-2025.10.19】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 发布日期：2025.10.20 造纸行情走势图 龙头引领纸品调价，成本传导机制打通：本周造纸行业旺季需 求与成本共振效应进一步凸显，包装纸价格呈现"龙头引领+ 全品类跟涨"态势：玖龙、山鹰等头部纸企密集发布调价通知， 玖龙多基地计划 10 月 20 日提价，山鹰华中基地 10 月 15 日上 调 T 纸、瓦纸 50 元/吨，带动终端价格同步上行——截至 10 月 17 日，白板纸、瓦楞纸、箱纸板均价周环均有所上涨，瓦 楞纸单周涨幅尤为显著。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 大同证 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the construction decoration industry as "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The issuance of 1.3 trillion special bonds has been fully implemented, leading to a strong performance in the construction decoration sector despite adverse market conditions [1] - The construction industry is showing signs of recovery, with the business activity index rising to 49.3% in September, indicating increased confidence in future demand [5][24] - The issuance of special bonds and urban renewal projects are becoming new focal points for investment, with a total of 36,839.17 billion yuan issued this year, achieving 83.73% of the annual target [5][19] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has initiated all major transportation projects, expected to significantly boost demand for engineering and materials [5] - The construction industry remains resilient, with infrastructure investment showing strong performance despite a weak economic recovery [5][22] Market Performance - The construction decoration sector outperformed the market index, with a weekly increase of 2.84% compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 0.37% increase [7][8] - Among 163 listed companies in the sector, 109 saw their stock prices rise, with the top performers including Guanzhong Ecology (36.14%) and China Nuclear Construction (21.02%) [9][12] Financial Metrics - As of October 10, the construction decoration industry's PE (TTM) is 12.37 times, ranking 30 out of 31 industries, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to other sectors [14] - The PB (LF) stands at 0.82 times, also ranking 30 out of 31, suggesting that the industry is undervalued [14] Investment Data - Fixed asset investment growth has slowed, with a cumulative year-on-year increase of only 0.5% as of August [22] - Infrastructure investment completed 15.76 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 5.42%, indicating a narrowing growth rate [22] Operational Data - The construction PMI for September was 49.3%, showing a slight increase, while new orders and business activity expectations indicate a recovery in demand [24][25] - New housing sales have decreased, while second-hand housing transactions have increased, reflecting a shift in market dynamics [25] High-Frequency Data - Cement shipment rates remain high, with prices showing a slight increase, while rebar prices have decreased [27][28] - The operating rate of asphalt plants has significantly increased, driven by seasonal demand [28][33] Important Events - The National Development and Reform Commission has highlighted opportunities for construction enterprises in the "Belt and Road" initiative, emphasizing the importance of high-quality development [35] - Major projects, including the completion of the Guyana New Demerara River Bridge, showcase the international engagement of Chinese construction firms [35]

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 中美两国博弈，煤炭板块韧性强 【2025.10.6-2025.10.12】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 风险提示 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 发布日期：2025.10.14 连续雨天影响，动力煤价表现偏强。双节期间及节后，雨天不 断，煤炭供给受到影响，大秦铁路检修、终端开启冬储和非电 煤旺季推进，短期看，预计共同支撑煤价走强。 煤炭行情走势图 供应整体平稳，焦煤价涨跌互现。本周，下游铁水产量仍维持 高位，焦企再次提涨的信心不足，多持观望态度，叠加 10 月 仍是需求旺季，预计对煤价仍有支撑。 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 大同证券研究中心 分析师：刘永芳 权益市场涨跌互现，煤炭大幅跑赢指数。中美两国相互博弈， 中国加强稀土相关物项出口管制，决定将反无人机技术公司等 外国实体列入不可靠实体清单，美国政府停摆期间，将多家中 国实体列入出口管制"实体清单"，特朗普宣称自 11 月 1 日 起，对中国产品征收 100% 关税等，受此冲击，全球市场巨震， 美国三大指数大幅下跌，A 股和港股高位下挫，前期涨幅较高 的科技股遭到暴击，涨幅较低的 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [3] Core Views - The semiconductor industry is experiencing strong demand, driven by the ongoing domestic substitution and the global AI wave, which is pushing high-end chip and related manufacturing demand to remain robust [24][28] - The storage chip sector is entering a new upcycle, with DRAM prices showing a strong upward trend due to high demand from AI servers, next-generation PCs, and data centers [26][27] - The "domestic substitution" has shifted from an optional strategy to a necessary one, creating a highly certain domestic market for equipment and materials companies, which can withstand global cyclical fluctuations [4][30] Summary by Sections Weekly Market Review - The market continued a weak oscillation pattern from September 22 to 26, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.21% to 3828.11 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 1.06% to 13209.00 points, and the ChiNext Index rising by 1.96% to 3151.53 points [8][10] - The semiconductor equipment ETF surged nearly 8% on September 23, with significant gains in semiconductor stocks, including Changchuan Technology and Shengmei Shanghai, which rose over 10% [31] Industry Data Tracking - The consumer electronics sector may face slowing growth in mobile phone sales, while domestic demand remains stable due to policies like "national subsidies" [20] - The semiconductor industry is currently seeing robust demand, with domestic semiconductor equipment demand remaining strong [24] - The storage chip industry is entering a new upcycle, with DRAM prices reflecting strong demand for high-performance memory [26][27] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies that achieve technological breakthroughs in key areas and have entered the mainstream chip manufacturing supply chain, as they are likely to be the foundation for China's semiconductor industry [30] - The TMT sector is expected to be a market leader due to its high growth potential and rich themes, especially in semiconductor and AI fields [5][30] Industry News and Important Announcements - Major positive developments in the semiconductor sector include a significant increase in chip concept stocks and a strategic partnership between Nvidia and OpenAI, with Nvidia planning to invest $100 billion [31][32] - Longchuan Technology expects a net profit increase of 131.39% to 145.38% for the first three quarters of 2025, driven by strong market demand [34]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The packaging paper prices are steadily increasing, supported by strong seasonal demand and effective price transmission from leading companies like Nine Dragons and Shanying [4] - The price of pulp is stabilizing, with domestic bleached softwood pulp priced at 5725 CNY/ton and bleached hardwood pulp slightly increasing to 4232.5 CNY/ton, indicating a trend towards a balanced supply-demand relationship [4] - The industry is accelerating its transformation towards high-end, green, and intensive development, as evidenced by significant projects like the 280,000-ton specialty paper project by Jindong Paper [4][26] - The valuation of the paper sector remains low historically, with strong cash flow and high certainty in mid-term performance, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] Summary by Sections Industry News - The recent price increases in raw paper are a response to rising costs, with many paperboard manufacturers issuing price hikes of 3%-4% [6] - Leading companies in the packaging paper sector have initiated multiple price increases since August, driven by high raw material costs [7] High-Frequency Data - The average pulp futures inventory has decreased to 239,900 tons, indicating a tightening supply [8] - The average closing price for pulp futures is 4999.2 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight increase [9] Company Events and Announcements - Nine Dragons Paper reported a 135.4% year-on-year increase in net profit for the fiscal year 2025, reaching 1.767 billion CNY, with significant growth in sales volume and revenue [27] - Jindong Paper's specialty paper project has reached a construction milestone, emphasizing the company's commitment to market transformation and green development [26] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the packaging paper sector that are benefiting from seasonal demand and price increases, while also considering companies with clear growth paths and resilience to economic cycles in specialty and consumer paper segments [29]

Market Review - The equity market showed mixed performance last week, with the STAR 50 index leading with a gain of 6.47%, while the North Stock 50 index fell by 3.11% [4][5] - Among the 31 sectors, the consumer healthcare sector continued to decline, while power equipment, non-ferrous metals, electronics, and environmental protection sectors performed relatively well [4][5] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on the IPO of Moer Thread, which has passed the review in 88 days, indicating a positive signal for the semiconductor and GPU sectors [15] - The non-ferrous metals industry has a new growth stabilization plan, which can benefit related funds [16] - The implementation of AI in transportation is expected to create opportunities in the transportation and AI sectors [17] Bond Market - The central bank's net injection in the open market last week was 11,223 billion, maintaining a balanced liquidity environment [24] - Long-term and short-term interest rates both declined, with the 10-year government bond yield falling to 1.865% [7][10] Fund Market - The equity fund index rose by 0.47%, while the secondary bond fund index increased by 0.08% [13][14] - Short-term and medium-long bond fund indices experienced slight declines [13][14] Asset Allocation Strategy - A balanced core plus barbell strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend and technology sectors [18][19] - The technology growth direction is supported by national policies and global trends in AI development [20] - The defense and military industry is highlighted as a strategic investment area due to geopolitical tensions [21] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include short-term bond funds and those benefiting from equity market opportunities [27][28]

Investment Rating - The report rates the paper industry as "Positive" [1] Core Insights - The paper industry is experiencing a peak season with stable prices, supported by a healthy supply-demand balance, which is expected to continue [4] - The cost pressures on paper companies are easing due to a reduction in paper pulp futures inventory and stable pricing, creating favorable conditions for profit recovery [4] - Multiple favorable policies are driving the industry's transformation towards high-end and green development, with significant initiatives such as the establishment of the Printing Paper Working Committee and strategic collaborations to enhance digitalization and branding [4][6][7] - The current valuation of the paper sector is at a historical low, with three supporting factors: stable peak season prices, alleviated costs, and policy-driven transformation, indicating clear improvement in the fundamentals [4] - The report highlights the strong cash flow and performance certainty of leading companies in the sector, suggesting potential for valuation recovery [4] Summary by Sections Industry News - Four paper companies, including Chenming and Nine Dragons, were listed in the "2025 China Top 500 Enterprises" [5] - A strategic partnership was formed between JD.com and the Baoding government to promote the digital and brand transformation of the paper industry [6] - The establishment of the Printing Paper Working Committee aims to enhance quality and fair competition in the industry [7] High-Frequency Data - As of September 19, 2025, the average inventory of paper pulp futures decreased to 244,800 tons, while the average closing price was 4,995.6 CNY/ton, reflecting a slight price adjustment [8] - Domestic paper prices remained stable, with whiteboard paper at 4,000 CNY/ton and corrugated paper at 3,040 CNY/ton, among others [20] Company Events and Announcements - Sichuan Xianhe New Materials announced a project to add 200,000 tons/year of household paper capacity [30] - Jindong Paper was recognized for its smart manufacturing initiatives, marking a milestone in its digital transformation [31] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on sectors with stable peak prices and new capacity releases, particularly in packaging and specialty paper, while also considering companies with strong policy support and technological advancements for long-term growth [33]

Market Review - The equity market showed mixed performance last week, with the ChiNext Index rising by 2.34%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.30% [4][5] - The bond market experienced a rise in long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing by 1.19 basis points to 1.879% [7][10] - The consumer medicine sector saw a collective pullback, with several industries experiencing declines, particularly banking and non-ferrous metals [4][5] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include focusing on funds related to the national drug centralized procurement document, which includes 55 drugs and is set to open bidding on October 21 [15][19] - The report highlights specific funds to consider, such as 工银医药健康 A (006002) and 嘉实互融精选 A (006603), which are positioned to benefit from the new procurement policies [19] - The overall asset allocation strategy suggests a balanced core with a barbell approach, emphasizing dividend and technology sectors [20][21] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The report notes a net injection of 11,623 billion yuan by the central bank, indicating a tight funding environment due to tax periods [24] - The adjustment of the 14-day reverse repurchase mechanism to an American-style bidding process aims to enhance liquidity management [25] - The report also mentions the need to monitor convertible bonds for volatility risks, as their pricing has recently shown increased fluctuations [25][27] Key Focus Products - The report recommends focusing on short-term bond funds while lowering yield expectations, given the current market conditions [27] - Specific funds highlighted include 诺德短债 A (005350) and 国泰利安中短债 A (016947), which are positioned for stable returns [30]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that the equity market is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with significant divergence observed. The A-share market has shown a volatile trend, with trading volume exceeding 3 trillion, but the upward momentum is weakening. Key sectors like optical modules and PCB are undergoing high-level adjustments, while other sectors lack sustained support [2][9][12]. - The report emphasizes that despite favorable macro factors, such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut and positive communication between US and Chinese leaders, the market struggles to find a new leading sector following the decline of the Nvidia supply chain. Sectors like chips, solid-state batteries, and robotics are only showing temporary strength [3][12][13]. - The report suggests a "barbell strategy" for A-share allocation, recommending to maintain positions in relatively strong sectors like chips and robotics while managing risk through defensive investments in dividend stocks that have undergone sufficient adjustments [5][14]. Group 2 - The bond market is currently in a weak adjustment phase, with initial recovery efforts failing to sustain. The overall sentiment remains subdued, and the bond market is unlikely to show significant performance without substantial positive developments [6][36]. - In the commodity market, gold is experiencing high-level fluctuations post-Fed rate cut, with limited upward momentum. However, there is potential for long-term growth in gold due to its dual role as an investment and a safe haven asset. Oil prices remain stable [7][42][43]. - The report advises maintaining gold positions in the short term while continuing to observe market conditions for long-term strategies [47].

Market Review - The equity market saw most major indices rise, with the STAR 50 index showing the largest increase of 5.48% [4][5] - The bond market experienced an upward trend in both short and long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond yield rising by 4.10 basis points to 1.867% [8][12] - The TMT sector rebounded collectively, while the majority of the 31 industries tracked by Shenwan saw gains [4][5] Equity Product Allocation Strategy - Event-driven strategies include monitoring the anti-dumping investigation initiated by the Ministry of Commerce against imported chips from the US, which may benefit funds like Bosera Semiconductor Theme A (012650) and ICBC Emerging Manufacturing A (009707) [18] - The automotive industry is highlighted due to the "Automotive Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan (2025-2026)" released by multiple departments, with funds such as Huaxia Automotive Industry A (017721) being of interest [19] - The upcoming World Energy Storage Conference from September 16 to 18 in Ningde, Fujian, is expected to spotlight funds like Jiashi Intelligent Automotive (002168) [20] Asset Allocation Strategy - A balanced core plus barbell strategy is recommended, focusing on dividend and technology/high-end manufacturing sectors [22] - The attractiveness of dividend assets is emphasized due to the low interest rate environment and government support for regular dividend distributions [22][23] - The technology growth direction is supported by national policies and the urgency for domestic alternatives due to overseas technology export restrictions [23][24] Stable Product Allocation Strategy - The central bank's recent net injection of 196.1 billion yuan indicates a shift from a tight to a loose monetary environment [28] - August inflation data shows a year-on-year decrease of 0.4%, suggesting early signs of anti-involution effects [28] - The total social financing data for August indicates a broad money (M2) balance of 331.98 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year [28] Key Focus Products - Recommended funds include Nord Short Bond A (005350) and Guotai Li'an Medium and Short Bond A (016947) for stable returns [2][33] - For those looking to enhance overall returns, it is suggested to consider fixed income plus funds while being mindful of associated risks [32][33]