证券研究报告｜公募基金周报 2025 年 07 月 23 日 | 大类 | 项目 | 2025年走势 | 收盘价 | 近一周(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | A股 | 沪深300 | | 4058. 55 | 1.09 | | | 创业板指 | | 2277. 15 | 3.17 | | 港股 | 恒生指数 | | 24825. 66 | 2. 84 | | 美股 | 标普500 | | 6296. 79 | 0. 59 | | | 纳斯达克指数 | | 20895. 66 | 1.51 | | 中 债 | 中证全债 | | 261. 42 | 0. 11 | | 商品 | 工业品 | | 3.640.04 | 0. 76 | | | 黄金 | | 18.569.51 | 1. 47 | | | 原油 | | 1.009. 42 | 2. 30 | | 外汇 | 美元兑人民币 | | 7.18 | 0. 12 | 市场数据（截至 7 月 18 日） 数据来源：ifinD 资讯 大同证券研究中心 执业证书编号：S0770524020001 邮箱：zhangkf@dt ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is experiencing explosive growth, with a 6.18% increase on July 22, indicating a lag compared to the Shanghai Composite Index, which has reached a new high since last year [4] - The current proportion of loss-making enterprises in the coal industry is 53.6%, significantly higher than 35% in 2016, highlighting the need for regulatory measures to optimize the industry order and stabilize supply-demand relationships [6][8] - The "anti-involution" policy initiated on July 1, 2025, aims to eliminate low-price competition and promote the exit of backward production capacity, which is crucial for the coal industry's recovery [7][8] Summary by Sections Section 1: Market Dynamics - High temperatures have led to a surge in daily coal consumption for power generation, with coal prices continuing to rise due to increased demand from steel mills and ongoing infrastructure projects [12] - The price of Qinhuangdao Q5500 coal has increased by 38 yuan/ton, reflecting a clear turning point in the coal market fundamentals [12] Section 2: Valuation and Dividend Yield - As of July 22, the coal sector's price-to-book ratio is 1.27, placing it in the 34.77th percentile over the past five years, indicating a low valuation level [15] - The dynamic dividend yield for coal stocks is 5.27%, which is higher than the banking sector's 4.0% and the CSI 300's 2.82%, suggesting a favorable investment opportunity [15]

证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 07 月 21 日 低空经济或告别"野蛮生长"，步入高质量发展阶段 【20250714-20250720】 ◼ 市场回顾：上周权益市场主要指数多数收涨，创业板指涨幅最 大，上涨 3.17%；债券市场长短端利率均有所下行，其中十年 期国债仅下行 0.01BP，一年期国债上行 2.12BP,期限利差有所 走阔，长短端 AAA 信用利差均有所收窄；基金市场中偏股基金 指数和二级债基指数均周度收涨，中长期纯债基金指数和短期 纯债基金指数有所反弹；申万 31 个行业涨跌互现，先进制造 板块集体反弹。 ◼ 权益类产品配置策略： ➢ 事件驱动策略：（1）低空经济安全健康发展专题会议召开，可 关注：华安制造先锋 A(006154)、博时军工主题 A(004698)和 华夏军工安全 A（002251）；（2）新能源行业开展"反内卷" 调研座谈，可关注：工银新能源汽车 A(005939)、鹏华新能源 汽车 A(016067)、博时新能源主题 A（013103）；（3）英伟达 CEO 黄 仁 勋 年 内 第 三 次 访 华 ， 可 关 注 博 时 半 导 体 主 题 A(012650)、嘉 ...

证券研究报告——煤炭行业周报 焦炭首轮提涨落地，动力煤、焦煤价格齐涨 【2025.7.14-2025.7.20】 行业评级：中性 核心观点 发布日期：2025.7.21 煤炭行情走势图 数据来源：Wind 大同证券 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 2024-07-26 2024-08-26 2024-09-26 2024-10-26 2024-11-26 2024-12-26 2025-01-26 2025-02-26 2025-03-26 2025-04-26 2025-05-26 2025-06-26 沪深300 煤炭指数 大同证券研究中心 终端需求大幅回落，板块轮动加快，板块突发利空。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 1 ◆ 迎峰度夏进行时，动力煤价稳步攀升。当前动力煤市场呈现"旺 季需求主导、供给结构性收紧"的特征，受全国多地持续高温 影响，价格在高温驱动下稳步上涨。 ◆ 焦炭首轮提涨，焦煤价格继续上涨。在暴雨天气影响下，煤矿 产量恢复缓慢，"反内卷"政策和下游阶段性补库需求，以及 焦炭首轮提涨下，炼焦煤价格仍有继续上涨的可能。 ◆ 权益市场以涨为主，煤炭板块跑输指数。上半年 GD ...

证券研究报告——市场日报 市场风格转向 沪指再攀高峰 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.07.18 （预计发布时间：2025.07.21） 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 行情回顾 周五（7 月 18 日），A 股三大指数集体收 涨。沪指早盘波动上扬，午盘回落后再度震荡 上行，收报 3534.48 点，涨幅 0.50%，创年内 收盘新高。深指、创指高开后震荡走低，午后 触底反弹，尾盘收红，深指收报 10913.84 点， 涨 0.37%；创业板指报 2277.15 点，涨 0.34%。 当日两市成交额 1.57 万亿，两市量能仍维持 较高区间。板块方面，小金属、能源金属等周 期资源板块领涨，稀土永磁概念爆发。而 CPO 概念回调，计算机、光伏等板块走弱。个股涨 跌互现，近 2600 只个股上涨。 风险提示 中报业绩存雷，追高需谨慎 当日要闻 TDI 全球市场震荡 有工厂单日涨价 30% 国内龙 ...

证券研究报告——市场日报 三大指数走势分化 六月经济数据出炉 证券研究报告——市场日报 2025.07.15 （预计发布时间：2025.07.16） 大同证券研究中心 分析师：景剑文 执业证书编号：S0770523090001 邮箱：jingjw@dtsbc.com.cn 地址：山西太原长治路 111 号山西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址: http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 行情回顾 周二（7 月 15 日），三大指数早盘短暂拉 升后震荡下跌，午盘触底后震荡拉升，尾盘分 化，最终沪指收绿，深指、创指收红。截至收 盘，上证指数（-0.42%）收报 3505.00 点，深 证成指（+0.56%）收报 10744.56 点，创业板 指（+1.73%）收报 2235.05 点。两市量能仍超 过 1.6 万亿（数据来源：Wind）。申万Ⅰ级行 业多数下跌，通信、计算机、电子领涨；煤炭、 农林牧渔、公用事业领跌。 风险提示 国际市场突发利空引发扰动 当日要闻 中央最新审判工作意见发布：重点部署金融审判工作 依法严惩操纵市场等违法犯罪。7 月 14 日，《中共中央关于加强新时代审判工作的意见》（以下简 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - High temperatures and ongoing "anti-involution" trends are expected to support coal prices, particularly for thermal coal, as demand continues to rise with increased electricity consumption [3][8] - The supply-demand relationship for coking coal is easing, with prices expected to rise due to recovering supply and ongoing demand from downstream industries [24][25] - The coal sector has underperformed compared to broader market indices, with significant fluctuations in stock performance across various coal companies [4][3] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed an upward trend, but the coal sector lagged behind major indices, with the coal industry index declining by 1.08% [4][3] - Major coal companies experienced mixed performance, with some showing significant gains while others faced declines [4] Thermal Coal - Port inventories of thermal coal are decreasing, and high temperatures are driving up prices, with expectations for continued price increases due to limited supply [8][9] - Daily coal consumption at power plants has increased, with southern power plants consuming 2.139 million tons, a 13.1% increase week-on-week [8][9] - The average daily inventory at northern ports has decreased to over 27 million tons, indicating a tightening supply [16][17] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are rising, supported by recovering supply and strong demand from steel manufacturers, with production rates remaining high despite some operational challenges [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines has increased to 86.0%, indicating a recovery in production [24][25] - The market is seeing a shift in import dynamics, with Russian coal gaining market share due to competitive pricing [25][26] Shipping Situation - The number of vessels at ports has increased, and shipping prices have risen, indicating a robust demand for coal transportation [32][33] - The average shipping price from Qinhuangdao to various ports has shown an upward trend, reflecting increased shipping activity [32][33] Industry News - The National Energy Group has received approval for the first national standard verification point for carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS), marking a significant step in the industry [35] - National electricity loads have reached historical highs due to high temperatures and economic growth, indicating strong demand for coal-fired power generation [35][36]

证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 证券研究报告｜基金配置周报 2025 年 07 月 14 日 | ➢ | 重点关注产品：核心策略可关注诺德短债 A（005350）和华安 | | --- | --- | | 纯债 | A（040040）；卫星策略可关注固收+基金，如受益于可转 | | | 债机会且采用杠铃策略的安信新价值 A(003026)和受益于权益 | | | 市场机会的南方荣光 A(002015)。 | 风险提示：本文数据来源于公开数据，如果市场环境发生变化或产品数据发生更新则模型可能失效；本文仅用 于基金研究使用，不作为宣传材料；产品过往业绩不预示其未来表现，亦不构成投资收益的保证或投资建议； 政策效果不及预期；事件存在超预期演进的风险；政策超预期演变；地缘政治风险加剧。 请仔细阅读报告最后的重要法律申明 第 2 页 共 11 页 2025 年 07 月 14 日 | | 香港《稳定币条例》将于 8 月生效，如何布局？ | | --- | --- | | | 【20250707-20250713】 | | ◼ | 市场回顾：上周权益市场主要指数全线飘红，创业板指涨幅最 | | | 大同证券研究中心 大，上涨 ...

证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2025 年 7 月 14 日 权益市场再走强 股债跷跷板短期成型 【20250707-20250713】 核心观点 大类资产总览：权益市场走出周线三连阳。 本周，A 股在上周再度收红后，继续走出上行态势，周线走 出三连阳，周内整体呈现出震荡上行趋势，海外方面，特朗 普重提 8 月 1 日大规模加征关税威胁，全球贸易摩擦风险加 剧。而回到国内，以银行、证券、地产等为主的大金融板块 本周轮番上阵，助力市场走出放量上行态势。而债市本周整 体呈现震荡回落态势，股债跷跷板行情下，权益市场的大幅 走高，对债市形成了一定的压制作用。大宗商品整体仍呈现 低位震荡模式，黄金、原油的短期低迷，或仍无法对大宗商 品市场产生强有力的支持作用。 本周 A 股观点：金融接替科技，助力市场走强。 本周 A 股再度震荡走高，沪指成功站上 3500 点，对于场内 投资者来说，也具备有较强的激励作用，大幅提振了场内投 资者信心。具体来看，从海外视角来看，美国政策再度反复， 特朗普重提 8 月 1 日大规模加征关税威胁，全球贸易摩擦风 险加剧。而回到国内，在科技板块短期失速的情况下，银行、 券商、地产接续上阵，助 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is Neutral [1] Core Viewpoints - The current thermal coal market is in a "weak reality, strong expectation" phase, with short-term price stabilization supported by summer peak demand, but limited upside potential due to high inventory levels and regulatory easing [4][10] - Coking coal prices are stabilizing amid a rebound in total inventory, driven by downstream steel companies replenishing stocks of cost-effective coal types [4][24] - The equity market is primarily bullish, with the coal sector outperforming the index, as evidenced by a 1.60% weekly increase in the coal sector index [5][9] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The equity market showed an upward trend, with the coal sector outperforming the broader indices, as the Shanghai Composite Index reached 3497.22 points [5][9] - The average trading volume was 1.4 trillion yuan, with a daily financing amount fluctuating around 110 billion yuan [5] Thermal Coal - Upstream port inventories continue to decline, with daily coal consumption at power plants increasing due to rising temperatures [9][17] - The average daily coal inventory at power plants is approximately 35.82 million tons, with a daily consumption of 2.078 million tons, reflecting a week-on-week increase [18] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices are experiencing mixed trends, with supply tightening due to safety inspections and environmental regulations [24][25] - The average utilization rate of coking coal mines is 84.4%, indicating a slight decrease in production capacity [24] Shipping Situation - The number of anchored vessels in the Bohai Rim has increased, with average daily shipping prices showing a downward trend [33][34] Industry News - In the first five months of 2025, Ningxia's coal production decreased by 3.0%, while sales increased by 6.1% [36] - The Indian government extended the import restrictions on low-ash metallurgical coke for an additional six months [37]