电子元件行业深度报告：AI终端开启第三轮消费电子创新

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [8] Core Viewpoints - The application of AI at the endpoint is expected to initiate a new upgrade cycle in consumer electronics, particularly in smartphones, PCs, and TWS headphones, as the demand for replacements is anticipated to rise due to aging devices [5][15] - The average replacement cycle for smartphones has reached 3.7 years, with older devices facing increased risks such as insufficient storage and battery health decline, thus meeting the conditions for passive replacements [16][18] - AI applications from cloud to endpoint are seen as the future trend, with traditional smart terminals being the best current investment realization scenarios due to their rapid penetration and wide user coverage [21] Summary by Sections AI Application Trends and Replacement Wave - The macroeconomic impact on discretionary consumption and the lack of innovation have delayed significant replacement demand post-5G and home economy [5][15] - The demand recovery point for smartphones, PCs, and TWS headphones is already evident, with smartphone shipments showing positive growth for three consecutive quarters [18] AI-Driven Hardware ASP Increase - AI terminals require significant enhancements in computing, storage, and interaction capabilities, leading to increased demand for components such as DRAM, which is expected to rise by 50%-100% in AI smartphones compared to non-AI models [6][40] - The integration of AI voice assistants is becoming a crucial interaction point, necessitating high SNR MEMS microphones for improved audio capture in various environments [49][50] Comparison with Historical Consumer Electronics Cycles - The current market dynamics are compared to the 2016-2017 cycle, where significant innovations led to BOM cost expansions, with expectations for similar trends in upcoming iPhone models [7][58] - The 2019-2020 cycle saw a surge in 5G smartphone penetration, but the current AI-driven cycle is expected to yield significant ASP improvements even under passive replacement conditions [62] AI Terminal Penetration and Market Growth - AI smartphone penetration is projected to reach 16% by the end of 2024, with exponential growth expected in subsequent years, potentially reaching 54% by 2028 [25][33] - The AI market is forecasted to grow from $40 billion in 2023 to $670 billion in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate of 42% over the next decade [21] Component Demand and Supply Chain Implications - The demand for power inductors is expected to increase significantly due to the rising power requirements of AI applications in smartphones [55][56] - The DRAM market is anticipated to see a growth rate of approximately 14.3% for smartphones, driven by the increased memory requirements of AI functionalities [43][46]