中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】机械王可：叉车行业报告

Forklift Industry - The global forklift market reached 2.01 million units in 2022, with a market size of approximately 122.5 billion yuan, growing at a CAGR of 8.18% from 2013 to 2022 [18] - China is the largest forklift market, accounting for 40% of global sales, followed by Europe (30%), the Americas (19%), and Asia-Pacific including Japan (11%) [18] - The domestic forklift market is experiencing moderate recovery, driven by the growth of electric forklifts (classes 1-3) [18] - Lithium-ion forklifts are replacing internal combustion and lead-acid forklifts, with the lithium-ion penetration rate for large forklifts (classes 1+2+4/5) increasing from 5.2% in 2020 to 19% in 2023 [18] - The global forklift market (excluding China) is estimated at 92.7 billion yuan in 2022, with Chinese exports accounting for 17.1 billion yuan (18% market share) [18] - Chinese forklift manufacturers have significant export potential, with Hangcha, Anhui Heli, and Noblelift achieving export revenues of 6.535 billion, 6.113 billion, and 4.187 billion yuan respectively in 2023 [18] Commercial Aircraft Industry (C919) - The C919 has entered commercial operation with 6 aircraft delivered, marking China's capability in large passenger aircraft development [18] - Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China (COMAC) has invested over 10 billion yuan in C919 production capacity, aiming for an annual output of 150 aircraft [18] - The C919 has received over 1,300 orders, with confirmed orders exceeding 60% of the total [18] - By 2030, China is expected to achieve an annual delivery capacity of 100 C919 aircraft, with cumulative production exceeding 1,000 units by 2035 [18] - The C919's supply chain has achieved 60% localization, with airframe structures being fully localized, while engines and avionics systems still rely heavily on imports [18] REITs Market - The National Development and Reform Commission has expanded the underlying asset categories for REITs to twelve major types, including clean coal power generation, elderly care, and market-oriented rental housing [19] - The minimum asset size requirement for initial REITs projects has been set at 1 billion yuan (800 million yuan for rental housing and elderly care projects) [19] - The policy allows for more flexible use of funds, with up to 15% of net proceeds permitted for working capital purposes [19] - The approval process has been streamlined, eliminating the preliminary guidance phase and setting clear time limits for feedback [19] MLF Rate Cut - The People's Bank of China cut the MLF rate by 20 basis points to 2.30% on July 25, 2024, following a 10-basis-point cut in the 7-day reverse repo rate earlier in the month [20] - Major state-owned banks simultaneously reduced deposit rates, with 2-year, 3-year, and 5-year term deposit rates cut by 20 basis points [20] - The MLF rate cut aligns with the downward trend in interbank certificate of deposit rates, with AAA-rated 1-year CD yields falling below 2.0% [20] Land Market - National land transfer revenue declined by 35% year-on-year in the first half of 2024, reaching 1.054758 trillion yuan [21] - In June 2024, land transfer revenue fell by 46.77% year-on-year to 224.13 billion yuan, with the average land price decreasing by 32.46% to 1,650 yuan per square meter [21] - State-owned enterprises accounted for 57% of land acquisitions in June 2024, while local government financing platform (LGFV) purchases represented 26.62% of total land purchases [21] - Beijing led in land transfer revenue with 27.343 billion yuan in June 2024, followed by Zhejiang and Shandong provinces [21]