康缘药业：2024上半年口服液和凝胶剂增长强劲

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy (Maintain)" [8] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 2.26 billion yuan in the first half of 2024, a year-on-year decline of 11.49%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 265 million yuan, down 3.73% year-on-year [2][28] - In Q2 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 900 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.98%, and a net profit of 117 million yuan, down 12.59% year-on-year [2][28] - Strong growth was observed in the company's oral liquid and gel products, with revenues of 544 million yuan and 21 million yuan, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 28.60% and 107.87% [2][9] Financial Performance Summary - The company continues to push for new product development, with three NDA varieties in traditional Chinese medicine and two completed Phase III clinical studies [10] - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 5.76 billion yuan, 6.74 billion yuan, and 7.87 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 18.27%, 17.04%, and 16.72% respectively [10] - Net profit projections for the same period are 653 million yuan, 787 million yuan, and 956 million yuan, with growth rates of 21.63%, 20.57%, and 21.40% respectively [10] - Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.12 yuan, 1.35 yuan, and 1.64 yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively [10] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's revenue for 2022 was 4.35 billion yuan, increasing to 4.87 billion yuan in 2023, with an expected revenue of 5.76 billion yuan in 2024 [11] - The EBITDA for 2024 is projected to be 1.37 billion yuan, with a net profit of 653 million yuan [11] - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is expected to decrease from 20.3 in 2022 to 13.5 in 2024, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [11]