CATL(SZ:300750) Guolian Securities·2024-07-29 00:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, reflecting confidence in its future performance [5] Core Viewpoints - The company's H1 2024 revenue reached 1667.67 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.88%, while net profit attributable to shareholders increased by 10.37% to 228.65 billion yuan [2][7] - Q2 2024 revenue was 869.96 billion yuan, down 13.18% year-on-year but up 9.06% quarter-on-quarter, with net profit increasing by 13.40% year-on-year and 17.55% quarter-on-quarter to 123.55 billion yuan [2][7] - The company's global market share in power batteries reached 37.5% in the first five months of 2024, maintaining its leading position [8] - The company plans to open offline stores showcasing over 50 models with the "CATL inside" branding in August 2024 [8] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2024 is projected to be 3835.0 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 4.3%, while net profit is expected to grow by 11.8% to 493.3 billion yuan [10] - For 2025, revenue is forecasted to increase by 18.0% to 4527.0 billion yuan, with net profit growing by 16.6% to 575.3 billion yuan [10] - The company's EPS for 2024 is estimated at 11.2 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 17x [10] Market Position and Technology - The company's global market share in energy storage reached 40%, with plans to further expand through innovative technologies [9] - The company introduced the world's first high-safety skateboard chassis technology, supporting 5C ultra-fast charging and 120km/h collision safety [9] - The company showcased its Tianheng energy storage system at Europe's largest battery and energy storage exhibition and partnered with Rolls-Royce to enter the EU and UK markets [9] Financial Data and Valuation - The company's total assets are projected to reach 9776.34 billion yuan by 2026, with a debt-to-asset ratio of 62.66% [13] - The company's ROE is expected to remain above 20% from 2024 to 2026, indicating strong profitability [13] - The company's EV/EBITDA ratio is forecasted to decrease from 9.7x in 2024 to 7.2x in 2026, reflecting improving valuation metrics [13] Industry and Competitive Landscape - The global power battery installation reached 285.4GWh in the first five months of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 23% [8] - The company's domestic market share in power batteries reached 46.4% in the first half of 2024, with a year-on-year increase of 3.0% in installation volume [8]