海外市场周观察：经济韧性较强，美股市场轮动继续

Key Points - The report indicates that the US economy remains resilient, with a consensus on a soft landing and potential interest rate cuts in the near future [3][16][18] - The second quarter GDP growth rate in the US was 2.8%, significantly above the expected 2.0% and previous 1.4%, driven mainly by consumption and non-residential investment [16][18] - The report highlights fluctuations in the US stock market, with the Russell 2000 index rising by 3.47% while the Nasdaq index fell by 2.08% for the second consecutive week [16][44] - The core PCE index in June increased by 0.2%, exceeding market expectations of 0.1%, indicating inflationary pressures [16][18] - The report notes a decline in residential sales, with new home sales down by 0.6% and existing home sales down by 5.4%, despite an increase in inventory and a decrease in mortgage rates [16][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of upcoming economic data releases, particularly the July non-farm payrolls and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision in September [3][16] Equity Market - The report details mixed performance in global equity markets, with the UK FTSE 100 (+1.59%) and Germany's DAX (+1.35%) showing the largest gains, while Japan's Nikkei 225 (-5.98%) and Shenzhen Composite (-3.44%) experienced the largest declines [12][44] - In the US, the industrial sector saw the highest increase at +1.77%, while the information technology sector faced the largest decline at -2.28% [49][51] Economic Data - The report highlights a decrease in initial and continuing jobless claims in the US, indicating a strong labor market, with initial claims at 235,000 and continuing claims at 1.851 million [18][20] - The report also tracks consumer confidence and inflation expectations, noting their fluctuations over recent months [39][40] Commodity Market - The report notes mixed performance in the commodity market, with CBOT corn rising by 0.83% while CBOT soybean fell by 2.21% and NYMEX light crude oil decreased by 4.75% [59][60] Currency Market - The report indicates that the ruble (+4.92%) and yen (+1.82%) appreciated against the renminbi, while the New Zealand dollar (-2.48%) and Australian dollar (-2.06%) depreciated [54][57]