白酒周期专题研究：调整再出发：上一轮白酒低谷期复盘

Investment Rating - The report recommends an "Accumulate" rating for the liquor industry, particularly for stable sales targets such as Guizhou Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, Yingjia Gongjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu, as well as for oversold targets like Wuliangye, Luzhou Laojiao, Jiansi Yuan, and Laobai Ganjiu [3][13]. Core Insights - The current downturn in the liquor industry is characterized by a relatively mild adjustment in demand and expectations compared to the previous cycle, but the adjustment period is longer. The report highlights that the previous downturn from 2012 to 2016 was triggered by policy changes and food safety incidents, leading to a significant decline in demand [3][6][7]. - The report notes that high-end and regional liquor brands have shown quicker recovery and greater elasticity after the downturn, with Guizhou Moutai being the only company to maintain continuous positive growth in revenue and net profit during the adjustment period [3][6][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Research Conclusions and Investment Recommendations - The report outlines that the liquor industry experienced a brief downturn due to a sharp drop in demand, with a significant differentiation in performance among companies. The adjustment period lasted approximately 18 months, during which the industry index underperformed the broader market [6][15]. - It emphasizes that the current cycle's adjustment is less severe but prolonged, with the industry showing signs of concentration, leading to smaller fluctuations in company performance [7][13]. 2. Demand Decline Triggering the 2012-2016 Liquor Downturn - The report details that the liquor industry entered a downturn in 2012 due to a rapid decline in demand, influenced by policy changes and food safety incidents. The industry's growth peaked in 2011, but subsequent events led to a significant shift in market dynamics [15][16]. - It highlights that the adjustment period was marked by a substantial drop in stock prices, with the industry index falling by 59% from its peak [18][21]. 3. Faster Recovery of High-End and Regional Liquors - The report indicates that during the adjustment phase, stock prices of high-end and regional liquors rebounded more quickly than those of mid-range brands, with Guizhou Moutai and other regional brands showing resilience [6][21]. - It also notes that the stock price performance often led the fundamental performance by about three quarters, indicating a disconnect between market sentiment and actual company performance during the downturn [21][22].