Enpack(002846) 华金证券·2024-07-29 03:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-A" rating for the company, indicating a positive outlook for the stock [36] Core Views - The company is implementing a "dual main business" strategy, focusing on both metal packaging and composite current collectors, with the latter expected to become a second growth curve [37][42] - The composite current collector business is projected to generate over 3.6 billion yuan in annual revenue upon full production [37] - The company's traditional metal packaging business is expected to stabilize, while the composite current collector business is set to expand rapidly [52] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is expected to grow from 1.747 billion yuan in 2023 to 3.253 billion yuan in 2026, with a CAGR of 23.9% [53] - Net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 14 million yuan in 2023 to 48 million yuan in 2026 [53] - The company's gross margin is expected to improve from 11.9% in 2023 to 16.5% in 2026 [53] Industry and Market Analysis - The metal packaging industry in China achieved a cumulative revenue of 150.562 billion yuan in 2023, with a year-on-year growth of 0.34% [151] - The beer canning rate in China increased from 16.2% in 2009 to 32.5% in 2022, indicating significant growth potential for metal packaging in the beverage industry [160] - The composite current collector market is expected to benefit from its advantages in energy density, cost reduction, and safety, with potential applications in lithium-ion batteries [148][171][178] Company Operations and Strategy - The company plans to invest 3.089 billion yuan in the composite current collector project, aiming to build 134 composite copper foil production lines and 10 composite aluminum foil production lines [37] - The company's traditional business, particularly beverage can lids, has seen significant capacity expansion, with production capacity increasing from 1.381 billion pieces in 2017 to 10.344 billion pieces in 2022 [105] - The company has a diversified customer base, with the top five customers accounting for only 18.28% of total sales in 2022, reducing dependency on any single client [128] Risks and Challenges - The commercialization of composite current collectors may face challenges due to the need for coordinated development across the industry chain [6] - The company's profitability has been impacted by fluctuations in raw material prices, particularly aluminum and tinplate, which account for a significant portion of production costs [79][117][119]