巴基斯坦最低成本电气化研究（英）2024

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The study aims to identify the optimal route for achieving universal access to electricity in Pakistan by 2030 through grid expansion and off-grid solutions [18] - The total capital investment required to achieve universal electricity access in four provinces is estimated at US$ 13.3 billion [29] - An integrated approach combining both grid and off-grid systems is recommended as the optimal solution for achieving universal electricity access by 2030 [31] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - The Least-Cost Electrification Study identifies four options for delivering universal electrical service by 2030: grid densification, grid extension, mini-grids, and individual off-grid systems [18] - Approximately 40 million total electricity connections are needed to achieve universal access by 2030 [20] - Grid densification is the least-cost option for 53% of those without electricity access [20] Methodology and Inputs - The study employs a geospatial model to analyze electrification options across different regions [18] - It includes a Mini-Grid Portfolio Readiness Assessment to identify high-priority mini-grid sites [18] Results - The study estimates that grid extension is the least-cost option for 25% of total new connections required [22] - Mini-grids are identified as the most economical solution for 20% of new connections, particularly in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province [22] - Individual off-grid systems are feasible for only 2.5% of new connections [24] Mini-Grid Assessment - The report identifies 1,015 potential high-priority mini-grid electrification sites across the four provinces [34] - The estimated total investment cost to implement mini-grids in these identified clusters is US$ 360 million [35] Recommendations - A designated entity should lead the implementation of the least-cost electrification plan, collaborating with utility companies and the private sector [37] - The GIS-based platform developed in the study should be made publicly available to attract private-sector investments [37] - The study emphasizes the importance of integrating economic stimulation goals into the electrification strategy [39]