Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Prinx Chengshan (1809 HK) with a target price of HKD 13 54 [1] Core Views - Prinx Chengshan is expected to achieve a significant year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to the parent company of 130%-160% in H1 2024 reaching RMB 752-850 million [2] - The company's tire sales volume in H1 2024 reached 13 8 million units a 19% increase year-on-year with overseas market sales growing by 21% and passenger car tire sales by 25% [2] - The company plans to add 2 33 million units/year of semi-steel tire capacity in 2024 with new capacity expected to contribute to performance in the second half of the year [2] - The reduction in export tax rates for the company's Thailand base from 17 06% to 4 52% is expected to boost US orders and improve performance [2] - The report forecasts a 16 3% CAGR for the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2024 to 2026 [2] Financial Performance and Projections - The company's revenue is projected to grow from RMB 10 879 billion in 2024 to RMB 12 294 billion in 2026 with net profit attributable to the parent company increasing from RMB 1 314 billion to RMB 1 625 billion over the same period [3][9] - EPS is expected to rise from RMB 2 06 in 2024 to RMB 2 55 in 2026 with ROE maintaining above 20% [3][9] - The company's gross margin is forecasted to improve from 21 33% in 2023 to 24% in 2026 [8] Capacity and Market Demand - The company's semi-steel tire capacity utilization rate was 90 1% in Thailand and 96 8% in Shandong in 2023 [2] - Domestic rubber tire production and exports in H1 2024 increased by 10 6% and 10 2% respectively indicating strong demand [2] - The company's semi-steel tire capacity is expected to increase by 233 million units/year in 2024 with new capacity coming online in the second half of the year [2] Valuation and Peer Comparison - The report values Prinx Chengshan at 6x PE for 2024 based on its global layout and improved profitability [10] - Compared to peers such as Sentury Tire General Tire and Sailun Tire Prinx Chengshan's PE ratio is lower at 3 23x for 2024 [11] Business Segments and Assumptions - The report assumes a 2% annual price increase for all-steel tires and a 3% increase for semi-steel tires from 2024 to 2026 [7] - Semi-steel tire production is expected to grow from 19 38 million units in 2024 to 20 45 million units in 2026 [7] - All-steel tire production is projected to increase from 8 18 million units in 2024 to 8 93 million units in 2026 [7]
浦林成山：销量增长叠加退税，24H1业绩大幅增长