建筑建材行业2024年半年度宏观展望：内需之重下静待新平衡

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook for the construction and building materials industry in 2024 [1] Core Insights - The real estate sector continues to drag down the economy and industry demand, with fixed asset investment in real estate declining for the third consecutive year, marking the largest drag on the economy in over a decade [1][8] - The construction and building materials industry is experiencing a historical low in demand, but the concentration of the industry is expected to increase, providing opportunities for leading and strong companies [2][63] - Policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market and improving demand are expected to be implemented in the second half of 2024, which could lead to a healthier development trajectory for the real estate sector [1][54] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Overview - The construction and manufacturing investments are stabilizing, but the real estate sector continues to negatively impact the economy and industry [9] - Local governments are reducing special bond issuance due to debt pressures, while central government efforts are aimed at stabilizing infrastructure investment [10][11] 2. Demand Dynamics - Exports have improved, contributing positively to GDP growth, while domestic consumption remains weak due to declining wealth effects from real estate [27][28] - The real estate sector's return to a long-term healthy development path is crucial for overall economic recovery [41] 3. Policy Measures - Continuous policy measures are being introduced to mitigate risks in the real estate sector, with a focus on stabilizing prices and improving market conditions [46][54] - The government is expected to continue implementing supportive policies in the second half of 2024 to facilitate a return to a healthy real estate market [54] 4. New Productive Forces - Emphasis on improving input-output efficiency and asset value through policy initiatives is seen as essential for enhancing economic performance [56][60] - The focus on new productive forces aims to optimize production relationships and improve overall efficiency [57][58] 5. Industry Concentration - The trend of increasing industry concentration remains unchanged, with leading companies expected to benefit from the current market conditions [2][63] - The ongoing low demand environment will accelerate the elimination of weaker players, leading to a more balanced supply-demand dynamic [63][72] 6. Investment Recommendations - Companies to focus on include Beixin Building Materials, Weixing New Materials, Dongpeng Holdings, and others, which are well-positioned to capitalize on the expected market recovery [2][76]