FICC&资产配置周观察：如何理解国内利率新低而汇率阶段走强？

Investment Insights - The report highlights the recent strengthening of the RMB against the USD, with the USDCNH reaching 7.20 and closing at 7.26, despite domestic interest rate cuts potentially leading to depreciation. This strength is attributed to several factors, including the Bank of Canada's recent rate cut and the depreciation of the JPY, which has influenced market expectations for the RMB [2][3][4]. Monetary Policy and Bond Market - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has implemented a series of interest rate cuts, including a 10 basis points reduction in both OMO and LPR rates, and a 20 basis points cut in MLF rates, resulting in the 10-year government bond yield falling below 2.20% [3][4]. - The issuance of special government bonds totaling 300 billion RMB is noted, with a net financing of approximately 4.03 trillion RMB in government bonds from January to July 2024. The pace of bond issuance is expected to accelerate in August [4][5]. Economic Indicators - China's GDP growth rate for Q2 2024 is reported at 4.7%, indicating a gradual recovery, although real estate sales and investment remain weak. The report emphasizes the need for counter-cyclical adjustments to support economic growth [3][4]. - The report also discusses the potential for a rebound in the US housing market, with economic resilience observed in the US, as indicated by a Q2 GDP growth rate of 2.8% [47]. Foreign Exchange Market - The report notes that the PBOC is tightening liquidity in the offshore market to improve the supply-demand relationship for foreign exchange, with the CNH HIBOR overnight rate rising to 6% since July [2][4]. - The report anticipates that the RMB exchange rate may stabilize in Q3, with limited potential for significant appreciation, while a slight appreciation is possible in Q4 as the US Federal Reserve's monetary policy shifts [2][3].