金属行业2024半年度展望：周期性配置逻辑强化，贵金属行业高景气度延续

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry for 2024 [2] Core Insights - The supply cycle of the metal industry shows signs of bottoming out, with structural increases in exploration data indicating potential supply elasticity in the coming years [3][18] - The growth attributes of the metal industry are significantly rising, driven by the transition to green low-carbon energy and the development of new productive forces [5][19] - There is a notable divergence in the supply status of various metal types, with precious and industrial metals seeing a decline in mining projects, while small metals for new energy are experiencing significant growth [4][19] Summary by Sections 1. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global metal industry's supply cycle is showing signs of structural uplift, with average annual exploration investment in the mining sector reaching $12.32 billion from 2021 to 2023, a 35.4% increase [3][18] - The average supply growth rate of global mining is 5.75% in 2023, aligning with the median supply growth rate over the past 30 years [18] - China's cumulative production growth rate for ten non-ferrous metals has been stable, averaging 7.35% since 2023 [18] 2. Differentiation in Metal Supply - The number of mining projects for precious and industrial metals has decreased, while projects for lithium, cobalt, and nickel have surged, with exploration investment for these battery metals increasing by 42% to a historical high of $1.64 billion in 2023 [4][19] - The number of gold drilling projects fell by 36% to 30,345 in 2023, indicating a tightening supply for precious metals [4][19] 3. Growth Attributes and Market Conditions - The metal industry's growth is increasingly focused on the structural expansion of demand driven by green energy transitions [5][19] - The profitability and operational efficiency of the non-ferrous metal industry have improved, with average gross margins rising to 10.06% and average ROE increasing to 11.71% [5][19] - The investment landscape is shifting, with public fund holdings in the metal sector increasing from 5.06% in Q2 2022 to 5.41% in Q2 2024, reflecting enhanced allocation attributes [5][19] 4. Specific Metal Insights - Copper supply is under pressure, with a projected cumulative consumption increase of 11.3% to 11.345 million tons from 2024 to 2027 [6][19] - The aluminum market is experiencing structural optimization, with domestic bauxite supply showing signs of contraction [6][19] - The gold market's pricing logic has shifted, with supply-demand dynamics becoming more critical in determining price stability [6][19] - Platinum is entering a structural shortage phase, with a projected supply gap of 9.6 tons in 2024 [6][19]