美国二季度GDP点评：经济韧性超预期

Economic Growth - The U.S. Q2 GDP growth rate was 2.8%, exceeding the expected 2%[2] - Personal consumption contributed 1.57% to GDP growth, remaining the largest driving factor[41] - Private investment, including inventory changes, saw a significant increase to 8.4% from the previous 4.4%[42] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment slowed to a 3.6% growth rate, down from 7%[42] - Equipment investment surged to 11.6%, up from 1.6%[42] - Other investments, such as construction and housing, showed declines of -3.3% and -1.4% respectively[42] Trade and Exports - The trade deficit widened, contributing -0.72% to GDP, with imports rising 6.9% and exports increasing 2%[42] - The increase in imports was driven by consumer demand and inventory replenishment across various sectors[42] Government Spending - Government spending grew by 3.1%, up from 1.8%, with defense spending rebounding to 5.2%[31] - Federal non-defense spending increased by 2.2%, while state and local government spending rose by 2.6%[31] Inflation and Monetary Policy - The PCE inflation rate fell to 2.6% from 3.4%, indicating a cooling in price pressures[41] - Market expectations for a rate cut in September have reached 100%, although the resilience of the economy may suggest that the total number of cuts for the year is overestimated[41]