消费品投资进阶之道系列一：消费行业的生意特性

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating on the consumer sector, specifically focusing on the Food & Beverage sub-industry [2] Core Views - The consumer sector is characterized by its long-term investment value, particularly for companies with superior business models, broad market prospects, clear growth logic, and improving competitive landscapes [4] - The sector is considered a "long slope, thick snow" investment opportunity, offering stability, longevity, and scalability [4] - The report highlights three types of business models: dream-like businesses (e.g., high-end liquor, luxury goods), good businesses (e.g., home appliances), and bad businesses (e.g., low-barrier, high-competition industries) [4] - Consumer companies benefit from weak cyclicality, longevity, deterministic growth, and scalability, making them attractive for long-term investment [4][7] Summary by Sections 1. Introduction - The report aims to build a foundational research framework for analyzing the consumer sector, helping investors understand the industry's evolution and investment opportunities [3][6] 2. Business Characteristics of the Consumer Sector 2.1 Best Business Models - Dream-like businesses: These are rare, with high barriers to entry, strong pricing power, and low dependency on management (e.g., high-end liquor, luxury goods) [7][11][13] - Good businesses: These require significant capital expenditure and R&D but can deliver solid returns after market consolidation (e.g., home appliances) [15][17] - Bad businesses: These are capital-intensive, highly competitive, and offer low returns, making them less attractive for investment [17] 2.2 Unique Characteristics of Consumer Businesses - Stability: Consumer demand remains resilient across economic cycles, especially for essential goods [17] - Longevity: Many consumer companies have near-perpetual lifecycles, driven by timeless human needs (e.g., health, happiness, beauty) [19][20] - Deterministic growth: Consumer companies achieve steady growth through time and compounding, with clear business models and competitive advantages [20][21] - Scalability: To C (consumer-facing) businesses have a natural advantage in scaling compared to To B (business-facing) companies, due to standardized products and broader market reach [23][24] 2.3 Consumer Sector as a Cradle for Super Long-Term Stocks - The consumer sector has historically produced super long-term stocks in markets like the US, Japan, and China, with companies like Philip Morris, Coca-Cola, and Kweichow Moutai delivering exceptional returns [25][26][27] 2.4 Challenges and Research Barriers - The consumer sector is easy to perceive but hard to quantify, with numerous influencing factors that make accurate attribution difficult [29][30] 3. Recommended Stocks and Earnings Forecasts - The report recommends long-term investment in leading Chinese consumer companies, particularly those with strong business models and improving competitive landscapes [32] - Specific stock recommendations include Wuliangye, Shanxi Fenjiu, Qingdao Beer, Midea Group, and Haier Smart Home, among others, with detailed earnings forecasts provided [33]