航空航天与国防Ⅲ深度报告：航空制造业长久期浅析：国际转包与自主可控双循环

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the aerospace and defense industry [9]. Core Insights - The long-term growth potential of military enterprises is a key focus for the capital market, with domestic military enterprises, especially leading companies, currently in the early development stage primarily focused on military products. Future directions may include military-civilian integration and global market expansion [2]. - The international aerospace compensation trade mechanism is driving overseas aerospace OEMs to gradually form a "global supply chain" model through foreign trade outsourcing, benefiting from the large scale and increasing penetration of the civil aviation market [5]. - The domestic aerospace OEM companies are predicted to capture over 20% of the global commercial aircraft delivery volume in the next 20 years, indicating significant growth potential in the civil aviation sector [24]. Summary by Sections Military-Civilian Integration and Overseas Exports - Military-civilian integration and overseas exports are the two main drivers for leading aerospace companies to maintain long-term growth. Companies like Boeing and Rolls-Royce have transitioned from a focus on military markets to expanding into the civil aviation sector, with civil products becoming a major revenue source [5][20]. - The global aerospace market is expected to see over 40,000 new aircraft deliveries in the next 20 years, with China projected to account for over 20% of this market, representing a development space worth trillions [5][24]. Supply Chain Optimization - Since the 1980s, overseas aerospace OEMs have gradually formed a "global supply chain" model through foreign trade outsourcing, significantly increasing the share of global outsourcing. For instance, Boeing's external supply work increased from 2% for the 727 to 90% for the 787 [6][29]. - Domestic strategic suppliers are expected to benefit long-term from this trend, as they engage in international aerospace outsourcing, enhancing their technical and management capabilities [6][29]. Growth of the Chinese Aerospace Market - The Chinese aviation market is growing rapidly, with a projected CAGR of 5.5% over the next 20 years, outpacing other markets. The demand for new aircraft is expected to surge due to market recovery and expansion [7][24]. - Domestic companies involved in aerospace outsourcing are seeing a continuous increase in their foreign trade business, indicating a shift of the global aerospace supply chain towards China [7][24]. High Demand for New Aircraft - The global aerospace market is experiencing a significant demand for new aircraft, driven by market expansion and fleet renewal. The supply of aircraft manufacturers is currently lagging behind demand, leading to a backlog of orders [7][24]. - The report highlights that the domestic aerospace industry is still in its early stages of development, with substantial growth potential as it moves towards military-civilian integration and overseas exports [24].