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中国化学(601117):联合研究 | 公司深度 | 中国化学(601117.SH):化学工程国家队,实业资产待重估
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-27 00:51
[Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司深度丨中国化学(601117.SH) [Table_Title] 化学工程国家队,实业资产待重估 报告要点 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 中国化学是国务院国资委监管的化学工程国家队,创立 70 余年来设计建造了我国 90%的化工 项目、70%的石油化工项目。2021 年公司提出"两商"战略,向"科研创新+化工实业+工程设计+ 工程施工"转型,2024 年实业背景的莫鼎革接任董事长,提出"5 年再造一个更高质量的中国化 学"。工程板块,新疆煤化工与海外是核心增长极,化工实业逐步成长为第二增长极。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC:S0490516100002 SAC:S0490520080022 SAC:S0490522060005 SFC:BUT911 SFC:BUT917 马太 张弛 张智杰 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 31 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 中国化学(6011 ...
智驾平权系列六:AI 智能涌现新阶段,智驾 VLA 与世界模型之争
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-27 00:50
行业研究丨深度报告丨汽车与汽车零部件 [Table_Title] 智驾平权系列六:AI 智能涌现新阶段,智驾 VLA 与世界模型之争 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 通用人工智能大模型迎来跨越式发展,模型规模、训练范式与推理能力持续突破,为各类 AI 应 用构建了坚实的底层技术底座。智能驾驶本质是"物理 AI"的应用,因此注定了往大模型方面 演进。通用大模型能力涌现,赋能智驾模型基座,智驾模型架构持续进阶,逐步进入 VLA 和世 界模型的物理 AI 时代,迈向智能涌现新阶段。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC:S0490517060001 SAC:S0490524030004 SFC:BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 2 汽车与汽车零部件 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 智驾平权系列六: 2] AI 智能涌现新阶段,智驾 VLA 与世界模型之争 [Table_Summary2] 引 ...
全球化工变局:东升西落,中国独占鳌头
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-26 15:17
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [13]. Core Insights - The global chemical industry is experiencing a clear trend of "East rising, West falling," with Europe facing challenges from high energy costs, carbon constraints, and industrial relocation, while China has firmly established itself as the leader in global chemical capacity [3][10]. - From 2004 to 2024, global chemical sales are projected to grow from €1.4 trillion to €5.0 trillion, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.6%, significantly outpacing the global GDP growth rate of 1.9% [7][18]. - China's share of global chemical sales is expected to increase from 10% in 2004 to 46% in 2024, while the shares of the EU, the US, Japan, South Korea, and India will be 13%, 12%, 3%, 3%, and 3%, respectively [7][18]. Summary by Sections Global Chemical Overview - China leads the global chemical industry, with capital expenditures expected to reach €127 billion in 2024, accounting for 46.6% of the global total [7][20]. - Research and development (R&D) investment in China's chemical sector is projected to reach €18 billion in 2024, representing 31.0% of the global total [25][20]. Chemical Cycle and Market Dynamics - The global chemical industry is at a historical low in capital return rates and profit margins, with many companies implementing cost-cutting and restructuring measures in anticipation of a new economic upturn [8][30]. - The shift towards specialty chemicals is noted, as these products typically have lower commoditization and higher added value, allowing companies to avoid intense competition in the commodity chemicals market [30]. Cost Disparities and EU Capacity Exit - The EU chemical industry is projected to have sales of €635 billion in 2024, but its global market share has been declining for nearly 20 years due to high energy costs and regulatory pressures [9][43]. - The EU is expected to close approximately 37 million tons of chemical capacity from 2022 to 2025, representing 9% of its total capacity, with the petrochemical sector facing the highest closure rates [9][74]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading Chinese chemical companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Hualu Hengsheng, and others, as they are well-positioned to capitalize on the shifting dynamics of the global chemical industry [10][83].
量化角度看可转债(十):回测代码框架构建
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-26 13:41
金融工程丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 量化角度看可转债(十):回测代码框架构建 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本报告构建了一套可转债数据库更新及回测代码工具化方案,涵盖数据更新、衍生指标计算、 理论定价模型及策略回测执行等核心环节。系统通过模块化封装,有效解决数据口径碎片化的 问题,确保了研究过程的规范性与可拓展性,为可转债策略开发提供了高效稳健的技术支持。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 刘胜利 SAC:S0490517070006 SFC:BWH883 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 22 [Table_Summary2] 工具化模块功能综述 模块概述:构建以 Python 为核心的量化投研框架,采用模块化设计思想,将数据更新和策略 回测两大环节进行了函数化封装与标准化存储,形成了数据库搭建到回测结果输出的自动化闭 环工具,实现了研究过程的规范化与系统化。 数据获取与更新模块:自动更新全市场转债列表,批量获取转债静态属性、指数利率数据、时 序行情数据,自动计算转债估值和定价等核心衍 ...
行业研究|行业周报|通信设备III:通信周观点:算力硬件满载扩产,AI模型SOTA投资升温-20260226
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-26 11:02
Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Insights - The communication sector saw a 2.35% increase in the 6th-7th week of 2026, ranking 6th among primary industries in the Yangtze River region; since the beginning of 2026, it has risen by 0.44%, ranking 27th [2][6] - Tower's silicon photonics revenue doubled, with a high demand for 1.6T, and capacity expansion plans have been adjusted with prepayments secured; silicon photonics modules continue to penetrate the market [2][10] - Vertiv's orders and backlog reached new highs, with a shipment-to-order ratio rising to 2.9 times [2][10] - ByteDance's Seedance 2.0 has industry-leading generation availability, while Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro tops the charts, and Anthropic's annual revenue is growing rapidly at $14 billion [2][10] - OpenAI's cumulative computing expenditure is expected to exceed $600 billion by 2030, with an upward revision of revenue forecasts [2][10] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In the 6th-7th week of 2026, the communication sector increased by 2.35%, ranking 6th among primary industries; since the start of 2026, it has risen by 0.44%, ranking 27th [2][6] - Among companies with a market capitalization above 8 billion, the top three gainers this week were Dawei Technology (+39.4%), Shengke Communication (+31.7%), and Shenling Environment (+29.6%); the top three decliners were Tongyu Communication (-11.7%), Dingtong Technology (-9.7%), and Xinke Mobile (-9.3%) [6] Company Highlights - **Tower**: In Q4 2025, revenue reached $440 million, a year-on-year increase of 13.7%, with GAAP net profit of $80 million, up 45.3%. The company expects silicon photonics revenue to reach $228 million in 2025, doubling from 2024, and has raised its capacity target from 3 times to over 5 times the Q4 2025 shipment [7] - **Vertiv**: In Q4 2025, revenue was $2.88 billion, a year-on-year increase of 22.7%, with GAAP net profit of $450 million, up 203.1%. The company reported a significant increase in organic orders, with a year-on-year growth of 252% [7] AI Model Developments - On February 12, ByteDance launched Seedance 2.0, achieving industry-leading performance in complex scenarios with a high generation availability rate [8] - Anthropic completed a $30 billion Series G financing round with a post-money valuation of $380 billion, reporting an annual revenue of approximately $14 billion [8] - On February 19, Google released Gemini 3.1 Pro, which ranked first in AI analysis, showing significant improvements in reasoning capabilities [8] Future Projections - OpenAI updated its financial outlook, projecting cumulative computing-related expenditures to exceed $600 billion by 2030, with training costs expected to rise significantly in 2025 and 2026 [9]
整治无AI标识不实信息传播,关注AI内容审查赛道投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-26 06:36
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 整治无 AI 标识不实信息传播,关注 AI 内容审查 赛道投资机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期,部分网络账号发布 AI 生成合成信息时,不添加 AI 标识,存在利用虚假不实内容欺骗误 导公众的问题,破坏网络生态,造成恶劣影响。网信部门督促网站平台深入排查整治,依法依 约处置账号 13421 个,清理违法违规信息 54.3 万余条。当前时点,在生成式 AI 技术的不断发 展的同时,AI 生成内容也成为部分网络生态乱象的源头。随着监管层面对 AI 生成内容监管力 度的不断加强,AI 内容审查等相关领域将迎来增量需求。建议关注:1)AI 标识、深度伪造检 测、数字水印等关键技术服务商;2)AI 反诈、AI 内容安全审查相关企业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [ ...
特斯拉 Cybercab 正式下线,自动驾驶商业化有望进入实车落地阶段
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-25 11:49
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 特斯拉 Cybercab 正式下线,自动驾驶商业化有 望进入实车落地阶段 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2026 年 2 月 18 日,特斯拉在官方社交平台确认,首辆专为无人出租场景打造的 Cybercab 已 在美国得州超级工厂正式下线。这标志着其自动驾驶商业化战略从概念验证与测试阶段,进入 实车落地阶段。此次特斯拉 Cybercab 的下线或标志着其 Robotaxi 业务将逐步开启大规模落 地。作为产业龙头,其商业化落地进度将对 Robotaxi 产业整体的发展起到重要的带动作用。建 议关注:1)Robotaxi 运营商;2)无人驾驶相关硬件配套厂商;3)车路云一体化建设企业。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2026 年 2 月 18 日,特斯拉在官 ...
机器人惊艳亮相马年春晚,关注机器人产业投资机遇
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-25 11:16
丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] 机器人惊艳亮相马年春晚,关注机器人产业投资 机遇 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2 月 16 日,2026 年春节联欢晚会正式开幕,松延动力、宇树科技、魔法原子和银河通用先后 登场,为全球华人带来了融合现代科技与人文关怀的饕餮盛宴,"机器人全面'入侵春晚'"也 迅速登上热搜。此次魔法原子、宇树科技、松延动力、银河通用等四家机器人集体亮相春晚, 展现了我国在人形机器人技术层面的突破以及产业集群优势,我国机器人商业化落地进程有望 加速。建议关注机器人全产业链,重点关注 1)机器人"大脑"供应商;2)机器人操作系统等 软件相关厂商。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 宗建树 陈耀文 SAC:S0490520030004 SAC:S0490525070002 SFC:BUX668 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 软件与服务 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 机器人惊艳亮相马年春晚,关注机器人产业投 2] 资机遇 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 2 月 16 ...
政府债周报(02/22):2026年特殊再融资债披露发行近7000亿-20260225
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-25 10:14
丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 2026 年特殊再融资债披露发行近 7000 亿 ——政府债周报(02/22) 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2 月 23 日-3 月 1 日地方债披露发行 2564.20 亿元。其中新增债 1397.40 亿元(新增一般债 125.00 亿元,新增专项债 1272.40 亿元),再融资债 1166.80 亿元(再融资一般债 210.80 亿 元,再融资专项债 956.00 亿元)。 2 月 9 日-2 月 15 日地方债共发行 3221.36 亿元。其中新增债 2566.07 亿元(新增一般债 615.93 亿元,新增专项债 1950.14 亿元),再融资债 655.29 亿元(再融资一般债 208.84 亿元,再融 资专项债 446.45 亿元)。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC:S0490524080003 SAC:S0490524120005 SFC:BVN394 SFC:BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Ta ...
前沿生物(688221):小核酸领域的冉冉新星
Changjiang Securities· 2026-02-25 09:21
[Table_Title] 前沿生物:小核酸领域的冉冉新星 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨前沿生物-U(688221.SH) %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 前沿生物是一家聚焦于具备技术和专利壁垒,以差异化优势的思路进行药物开发的创新药企 业,近年来逐步形成了长效抗 HIV 药物+新技术小核酸药物+高端仿制药的产品格局。公司目前 已储备了丰富的小核酸药物管线,涵盖了 IgA 肾病、血脂异常等慢病适应症。其中,FB7013 与 FB7011 均为靶向补体系统的设计,靶点选择具备 FIC 潜力。此外,公司自主研发的长效抗 HIV 病毒融合抑制剂艾可宁的放量趋势稳健,并同时储备了长效抗 HIV 的在研新药,未来有望形成 新的产品组合,持续巩固公司在艾滋病领域的竞争优势。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 彭英骐 刘长洪 SAC:S0490524030005 SAC:S0490525070007 SFC:BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 30 %% %% %% %% r ...