医疗设备行业11月更新： 招采金额环比延续增长态势 长江证券研究所医药研究小组 2025-12-17 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 分析师 彭英骐 分析师 徐晓欣 SAC执业证书编号：S0490524030005 SAC执业证书编号：S0490522120001 SFC执业证书编号：BUZ392 分析师及联系人 证券研究报告 • 证券研究报告 • 评级 看好 维持 2 01 设备招采：持续恢复，看好业绩释放 02 集采：县域市场集采占比较低，降幅缓和 03 风险提示 目 录 %% research.95579.com 3 01 设备招采：持续恢复，看好业绩释放 医疗设备行业月度数据跟踪 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 医疗设备行业历经2023-2024年连续两年下滑后，于2025年迎来拐点，行业回归正增长，主要是由于设备更新政策带动的 医院设备采购的需求增加，未来行业有望回归稳健增长。 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 4 2025年医疗设备招采恢复正增长 图1：2019-2025H1设备招采总金额情况 图2：201 ...

[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） [Table_Title] 小鹏汽车获 L3 级自动驾驶测试牌照，开启 L3 测试新阶段 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 小鹏汽车在广州市获 L3 级自动驾驶道路测试牌照，并启动常态化 L3 道路测试，主要适用范围 为广州市智能网联测试高快速路上进行有条件自动驾驶测试。小鹏汽车 AI 应用历史积淀深厚， 当前全面转向 AI 战略，定位面向全球的 AI 汽车公司，并明确未来十年将转型为 AI 汽车智能科 技企业，AI 业务全面起势。 分析师及联系人 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 小鹏汽车-W（09868.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 小鹏汽车获2]L3 级自动驾驶测试牌照，开启 L3 测试新阶段 [Table_Summary2] ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central government has shifted from "overall resolution and risk prevention" to more proactive "active debt resolution", strictly controlling the source of risks and emphasizing the optimization of debt restructuring and replacement methods. It has also clearly distinguished "operating debts of financing platforms" and included the risk of such debts in the key resolution scope [7][19]. - The resolution of local government implicit debts has advanced steadily, with the risk being continuously mitigated. However, the market has begun to focus on the operating debt risks of financing platforms, especially the disposal methods for such debts after 2028 [2][7]. - There are three possible paths for resolving the operating debts of financing platforms in the future: fiscal replacement after re - identification, financial debt resolution, and market - based disposal [7][31]. - The large - scale fiscal management reform in Hubei Province provides an important reference for local debt resolution and the market - oriented transformation of urban investment platforms [7][36]. - The disposal methods for the operating debt risks of financing platforms after 2028 are uncertain. If fiscal replacement is used again, a new round of inventory and statistics of local government off - balance - sheet debts may start from 2026 - 2027. If market - based resolution is adopted, attention should be paid to the creditworthiness of state - owned enterprises, especially the valuation risks of urban investment entities in relatively weak regions and with weak credit qualifications [7][36]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Implicit Debts Significantly Resolved, but Operating Debts of Financing Platforms Grow Significantly - The resolution of local government implicit debts has advanced steadily. Since 2024, a total of 10 trillion yuan of debt replacement resources have been arranged, and the implicit debt that local governments need to digest before 2028 has decreased from 14.3 trillion yuan to 2.3 trillion yuan [12]. - The scale and proportion of debt - resolution funds have increased significantly. Policy support has effectively matched the needs of local debt resolution, and most implicit debts are expected to be resolved by 2028 [14]. - Since 2018, the interest - bearing debts of urban investment entities have continued to expand. As of November 2025, they have reached about 78.8 trillion yuan, and it is estimated that they will reach nearly 83.5 trillion yuan by 2028. The stock of urban investment bonds has remained stable but decreased slightly, while the bonds of "pan - urban investment" entities have increased [19]. 2. New Ideas for Debt Resolution in the Central Economic Work Conference - By comparing the statements of the Central Economic Work Conferences from 2023 to 2025 on local government debt risks, it can be seen that the policy goals have evolved from "prevention and resolution" to "resolution", from "overall resolution" to "active and orderly resolution", and from "holding the bottom line" to "urging active debt resolution", reflecting a more proactive and targeted policy orientation [27][30]. 3. After 2028, for the Operating Debts of Financing Platforms: Restructuring or Replacement? - The central government's debt - resolution measures are becoming more market - oriented and professional. There are three possible paths for resolving the operating debts of financing platforms: fiscal replacement after re - identification, financial debt resolution, and market - based disposal [31]. - The large - scale fiscal reform in Hubei Province provides a sample for local debt resolution. By introducing social capital through asset securitization, it effectively alleviates the current debt - repayment pressure of local governments and enhances fiscal sustainability [36].

Group 1: Core Insights - The future narrative for thermal power is expected to shift towards enhanced profitability stability and increased dividends due to rising capacity prices and deeper assessments by the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) [2][60] - In the short term, integrated coal power companies are likely to have a comparative advantage as coal prices rise, with a consensus forming around an increase in the coal price baseline for next year [2][6] - Renewable energy companies, despite facing challenges such as supply-demand imbalance and subsidy delays, have shown considerable absolute returns, supported by improving policies for green energy development [6][8] Group 2: Thermal Power Analysis - Historical performance of thermal power shows a certain "counter-cyclical" nature, with earnings often moving inversely to coal prices, which are now market-driven [19][26] - The current policy framework limits the duration of profitability expectations for thermal power, leading to a "high first, low second" characteristic in the market for 2023 and 2024 [6][45] - The expected increase in capacity prices across provinces by 2026 will enhance the fixed cost recovery ability of coal power plants, significantly improving profitability stability [60][64] Group 3: Renewable Energy Insights - The renewable energy sector is currently facing multiple issues, including market price pressure and subsidy delays, but the gradual improvement in policy support is expected to create investment opportunities [6][8] - Companies with low valuations, high wind power ratios, and strong regional price certainty are still worth considering for investment despite the uncertain timing of policy impacts [2][6] Group 4: Hydropower and Nuclear Power - Leading hydropower companies exhibit high earnings certainty and dividend ratios, making them attractive for long-term investment [7] - Nuclear power is anticipated to see significant capacity growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with stable long-term price expectations despite some market price fluctuations [8][60] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies include quality thermal power operators such as Huaneng International, Datang Power, and China Power, as well as leading hydropower firms like Yangtze Power and Guotou Power [9] - In the renewable sector, companies like Longyuan Power and China Nuclear Power are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [9]

Group 1 - The report forecasts that the Brent crude oil price will fluctuate around $60-65 per barrel in 2026, with potential short-term increases due to geopolitical factors [3][6][7] - The midstream and downstream sectors are expected to improve, driven by a global economic resonance from the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and supply-side contractions due to anti-involution policies [3][7] - Investment opportunities are highlighted in cyclical growth stocks, coal chemical equipment investments, and high-dividend sectors [3][8] Group 2 - In 2025, oil prices are projected to oscillate between $60-70 per barrel, with a slight recovery in midstream and downstream sectors [6][7] - The report outlines a three-phase oil price trend in 2025, characterized by initial declines, a subsequent recovery, and a final drop influenced by geopolitical tensions and OPEC's production decisions [6][27] - Natural gas prices are expected to decrease due to increased LNG supply, with the JKM and TTF gas prices showing a downward trend compared to the previous year [6][30] Group 3 - The chemical industry is experiencing a weak recovery, with structural improvements in end-consumer demand, particularly in the textile sector, although domestic consumption remains under pressure [7][56] - The report anticipates an upward trend in industry prosperity as global interest rate cuts stimulate economic activity [7][8] - Key investment themes include cyclical opportunities, growth stocks, and companies benefiting from the coal chemical investment cycle [8][9] Group 4 - The report emphasizes the importance of high-quality growth stocks, particularly in the coal chemical sector and energy companies with stable cash flows and high dividend yields [8][9] - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Satellite Chemical, Baofeng Energy, and high-dividend firms like CNOOC, PetroChina, and Sinopec [8][9] - The report also notes the expected benefits for companies involved in high-end material imports and coal chemical equipment investments as the domestic coal chemical investment cycle unfolds [8][9]

Core Insights - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of its cycle, with expectations of gradual recovery driven by global economic growth and demand increase [2][5][20] - The report emphasizes the importance of supply-side dynamics, noting the retreat of foreign investment and the slowdown of domestic capacity expansion, which may lead to a turning point for the industry [2][5][36] - Key recommendations include focusing on cyclical resilient and growth sectors such as industrial silicon, organic silicon, PTA, spandex, caprolactam, soda ash, and chlor-alkali, as well as high-demand products like refrigerants and potassium fertilizers [2][5][6] Demand Side Analysis - The chemical industry is closely tied to global economic performance, with a projected global GDP growth of 3.09% in 2026, driven mainly by developing countries like India [22][25] - China's GDP growth is expected to be 4.16% in 2026, indicating robust domestic demand [22][25] - Emerging sectors such as new energy and AI are expected to drive material consumption, with significant growth in electric vehicle sales and energy storage capacity anticipated [27][29] Supply Side Dynamics - The report highlights the challenges faced by foreign chemical giants due to rising energy costs and increased competition, leading to significant profit declines [36][41] - Major foreign companies are closing high-cost production facilities in Europe, which may create opportunities for domestic players [36][41][47] - Domestic chemical companies are experiencing pressure on investment returns, leading to a slowdown in capital expenditure growth and a pause in new capacity plans [49] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a focus on cyclical resilient products and growth sectors, with specific attention to high-quality companies that possess competitive advantages [6][36] - The potential for price increases or stable prices with volume growth in bottom-tier products is emphasized, particularly in industrial silicon and organic silicon [6][36] - The report also identifies opportunities in the tire and civil explosives sectors, particularly as companies expand internationally [7][36] Emerging Opportunities - New material sectors, including humanoid robots and AI materials, are highlighted as areas of potential growth, driven by domestic policy support and the need for localized supply chains [8][36] - The report notes the increasing importance of domestic production capabilities in high-end materials due to international trade tensions [8][36]

Core Insights - The automotive sector is transitioning from a purely domestic demand-driven model to a multifaceted approach that includes overseas expansion, premiumization, and smart technology integration, with a focus on AI as a key growth driver for 2026 [3][10]. Summary by Sections Overall Market Outlook - Domestic demand for passenger vehicles may face pressure, with a projected registration volume of 22.6 million units in 2026, down 3.4% year-on-year. Exports are expected to reach 6.8 million units, up 17.2% year-on-year, while wholesale volume is forecasted at 29.41 million units, a slight increase of 0.7% [6][32]. - Heavy-duty trucks are anticipated to see a domestic retail sales volume of 695,000 units in 2026, down 13.2% year-on-year, with exports of 365,000 units, up 10% [6][40]. - The motorcycle industry is expected to continue its recovery, with total sales projected at 23.44 million units in 2026, reflecting a 7% year-on-year increase [6]. Main Line 1: Overseas Expansion - The overseas market presents significant growth potential, with a focus on electric vehicle (EV) exports. Excluding China, the U.S., and Japan, the potential for EV exports is expected to triple, with a forecast of 3.38 million units exported in 2026 [7]. - Domestic parts manufacturers are leveraging their technological and cost advantages to penetrate global supply chains, particularly benefiting from the growth of the European EV market [7]. - Heavy-duty truck exports are projected to reach 365,000 units in 2026, while bus exports are expected to grow by 15% [7]. Main Line 2: High-End Vehicles and Domestic Substitution - The high-end and luxury passenger vehicle markets are less affected by economic downturns, presenting opportunities for domestic substitution [8]. - The automotive parts sector is expected to benefit from technological advancements, with significant growth anticipated in areas such as magnesium alloys and smart driving components [8]. - The penetration rate of domestic parts in certain categories, such as seats and airbags, is expected to increase from approximately 10% to over 30% [8]. Main Line 3: Embracing AI - The production of humanoid robots is entering a new phase, with significant growth expected in 2026 as Tesla prepares for mass production [9]. - The liquid cooling sector is poised for explosive growth, with strong applicability in both automotive and server cooling systems [9]. - The smart driving market is entering a phase of affordability, with penetration rates expected to accelerate between 10% and 50% [9]. Investment Recommendations - The automotive sector is advised to focus on identifying turning points in domestic demand while leveraging opportunities in overseas markets, high-end vehicle segments, and AI-driven transformations [10].

Employment Data - In November 2025, the U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs, exceeding the expected 50,000, while October's figure was revised to -105,000[6] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, above the expected 4.5%, marking the highest level since October 2021[6][9] - The labor participation rate increased to 62.5%, reflecting a return of workers to the job market[9] Wage Growth and Inflation - Private sector hourly wage growth slowed to 0.1% month-on-month, significantly below the expected 0.3%[9] - Year-on-year wage growth decreased to 3.5%, down from 3.8%[9] - Core service inflation pressures are easing as wage growth decelerates[9] Federal Reserve Outlook - The current employment data does not indicate a need for immediate interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[9] - The Fed is expected to pause rate cuts until at least Q1 2026, with a potential cumulative cut of at least 50 basis points by year-end[9][32] - The upcoming change in Fed leadership in May 2026 may lead to a more dovish approach to monetary policy, depending on economic conditions[9]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zhuhai Guanyu (688772.SH) is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - Zhuhai Guanyu's subsidiary, Zhejiang Guanyu, has introduced external investors through a capital increase, with the investment from Yufu High-Precision Fund amounting to 200 million yuan for an additional registered capital of 114.92 million yuan. Post this capital increase, Zhuhai Guanyu's shareholding in Zhejiang Guanyu decreased from 62.04% to 59.07%, but the company retains its controlling position [2][5] - The company reported a revenue of 4.224 billion yuan in Q3 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.22% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.34%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million yuan, up 62.49% year-on-year and 92.17% quarter-on-quarter [12] - The growth in revenue is attributed to the high shipment growth of consumer batteries, particularly from major clients, and the gradual ramp-up of new products. The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 25.13%, with expectations for further improvement in consumer battery margins due to increased client share and operational efficiency [12] Summary by Sections Company Overview - Zhuhai Guanyu's current stock price is 22.29 yuan, with a total share capital of 113.207 million shares. The net asset per share is 6.30 yuan, and the highest and lowest prices in the last 12 months were 29.18 yuan and 11.45 yuan, respectively [8] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 4.224 billion yuan, with a gross profit of approximately 1.065 billion yuan, leading to a gross margin of 25.13%. The net profit attributable to the parent company was 270 million yuan, with a significant increase in profitability driven by improved client share and cost control [12] - The financial projections for 2025 estimate total revenue of 13.502 billion yuan, with a net profit of 782 million yuan, corresponding to a PE ratio of 32.28 [16] Market Outlook - The outlook for Zhuhai Guanyu remains positive, with expectations for continued growth driven by overseas consumer clients and opportunities arising from AI trends and wearable product iterations. The company is also expected to benefit from changes in accounting policies related to depreciation, providing additional profit flexibility [12]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the real estate industry [9] Core Insights - The real estate industry continues to show weak fundamentals, with significant year-on-year declines in sales and construction activities. The central economic work conference emphasizes "controlling increments, reducing inventory, and optimizing supply," indicating that policy thresholds are approaching, which may open up policy windows for intervention [2][12] - In November 2025, the sales volume and area of commercial housing decreased by 25.1% and 17.3% year-on-year, respectively, reflecting ongoing pressure from high bases and declining market sentiment. The report anticipates that December will also face significant year-on-year pressure [12][12] - The report highlights the importance of focusing on quality real estate companies with low inventory, strong regional presence, and product strength, as well as stable cash flow from leading brokerage firms, commercial real estate, and state-owned property management companies [2][12] Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first eleven months of 2025, the national commercial housing sales amount and area decreased by 11.1% and 7.8% year-on-year, respectively. November saw a more pronounced decline, with sales amount and area down by 25.1% and 17.3% [12][12] - The average sales price of new homes in November was 9,097 yuan per square meter, down 9.5% year-on-year, while the average price of residential properties fell by 11.1% [12][12] Construction Activity - New construction area in the first eleven months of 2025 decreased by 20.5% year-on-year, with November's decline at 27.6%. The report suggests that the construction sector may have entered an oversold state [12][12] - The completed construction area also saw a decline of 18.0% year-on-year, with November's figure down 25.5% [12][12] Investment Trends - The total funds available to real estate companies decreased by 11.9% year-on-year, with November seeing a sharp decline of 32.5%. This includes a 10.4% drop in domestic loans and a 30.7% decrease in self-raised funds [12][12] - Real estate development investment completed in the first eleven months of 2025 fell by 15.9% year-on-year, with November's investment down 30.3% [12][12] Market Outlook - The report forecasts that the real estate industry will remain in an adjustment phase throughout 2025, with an expected annual sales decline of around 10% and construction activity down by approximately 20% [12][12]