Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a broad decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3850 points, while market volume saw a slight increase [2][5] - The performance of various sectors showed that home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking sectors performed relatively well, while metal materials and mining, power and new energy equipment, and electronics sectors led the decline [2][5] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 2.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 3.41%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 4.02%, the SSE 50 Index declined by 1.74%, the CSI 300 Index decreased by 2.44%, the STAR 50 Index fell by 3.19%, and the CSI 1000 Index dropped by 3.72%, with a total market turnover of approximately 1.98 trillion yuan [2][8] Sector Analysis - The leading sectors included home appliance manufacturing, media and internet, food and beverage, and banking, while the lagging sectors were metal materials and mining (-5.11%), power and new energy equipment (-4.78%), and electronics (-4.66%) [8] - Concept stocks such as China Shipbuilding System (+3.51%), aquatic products (+0.65%), Xiaohongshu platform (+0.47%), and Pinduoduo partners (+0.42%) showed gains, while lithium mining and related concepts faced declines [8] Market Drivers - Key market drivers included the unexpected rise in U.S. unemployment rates despite job growth, leading to uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [8] - Concerns about high asset prices and AI bubble risks contributed to a decline in U.S. stocks, which in turn affected market sentiment in the Asia-Pacific region [8] Short-term and Long-term Outlook - The report suggests a short-term market correction may occur due to rapid price increases, but the long-term outlook remains positive with expectations of a "slow bull" market trend [14] - In the medium term, the market's strength may depend on macroeconomic policies and technological advancements, particularly in AI and robotics, which are seen as key areas for creating new demand [15] - Long-term fundamentals, including stabilization in the real estate market and the effectiveness of "anti-involution" policies, are expected to support continued growth in the A-share market [15]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a significant decline, with the Hang Seng Index dropping by 2.38% to 25,220.02, and the Hang Seng Tech Index falling by 3.21% to 5,395.49, reflecting a broader market adjustment influenced by tightening liquidity expectations in the U.S. [5][9] - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for September showed mixed results, with an addition of 119,000 jobs, which was above expectations but still at a low level, leading to a decrease in the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to 33.1% [9][5] - The AI industry chain's pullback in the U.S. has negatively impacted Hong Kong's hard tech sector, particularly the semiconductor sector, which saw significant declines [9][5] Market Performance - On November 21, 2025, the total trading volume in the Hong Kong market reached HKD 285.7 billion, with net inflows from southbound funds amounting to HKD 10.5 million [2][9] - The major indices in the A-share market also experienced declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 2.45% and the CSI 300 down by 2.44% [5][9] - The sector performance showed that all primary sectors under the CITIC Hong Kong Stock Connect Index declined, with steel (-6.39%), non-ferrous metals (-4.39%), and retail (-4.26%) leading the losses [5][9] Industry Outlook - The report suggests a cautious outlook for the Hong Kong stock market, indicating a potential "slow bull" market as it awaits renewed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and clarity in AI long-term narratives [9] - The focus for medium to long-term investments should shift towards sectors driven by new productive forces, including AI and robotics, which are at a critical stage of commercialization [9] - The report highlights four key investment directions: 1) Quality supply creating new demand, 2) Re-evaluation of scarce resources driven by energy transition and geopolitical factors, 3) Recovery from excess capacity in industries like photovoltaics and chemicals, and 4) Benefits to financial markets from increased market activity and low-interest environments [9]

丨证券研究报告丨 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 增量资金驱动，3-5Y 普信债相对吸引力凸显 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 近期债市震荡中信用债表现分化，3-5 年期普通信用债的配置吸引力相对凸显。核心驱动在于， 12 月将迎来摊余成本法债基的开放高峰期，这批规模超千亿的增量资金因其负债端特性和运作 规则，天然偏好配置剩余期限相匹配、现金流稳定的高等级普信债，从而对其估值构成支撑。 相比之下，二永债虽存在补涨行情，但其波动较大且受后续基金赎回费率新规等潜在政策扰动。 投资策略上，建议以票息策略为核心，并可重点关注 3-4 年期普信债的骑乘收益机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title2] 增量资金驱动，3-5Y 普信债相对吸引力凸显 [Table_Summary2] 11 月 10 日-11 月 14 日，债市步入定 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨吉林化纤（000420.SZ） [Table_Title] 粘胶纤维结构变化，碳纤维需求起量 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 吉林化纤发布三季报：2025 年前三季度实现收入约 40.19 亿元，同比增长 44%；归属净利润 约 0.33 亿元，同比下降 47%，扣非净利润同比下降 47%。2025Q3 收入约 13.84 亿元，同比 增长 35%，环比下降 3%；归属净利润约 0.11 亿元，同比下降 52%，环比下降 23%；扣非净 利润同比下降 59%，环比下降 29%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 吉林化纤（000420.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 粘胶纤维结构变化，碳纤维需求起量 [T ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨长海股份（300196.SZ） [Table_Title] 销量延续高增，盈利相对稳健 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长海股份发布 2025 年三季报：前三季度实现收入 23.59 亿元，同比增长 24%，归属净利润 2.57 亿元，同比增长 27%，扣非净利润 2.65 亿元，同比增长 46%。单 3 季度实现收入 9.04 亿元， 同比增长 33%，环比增长 31%，归属净利润 0.84 亿元，同比增长 4%，环比下降 8%，扣非净 利润 0.88 亿元，同比增长 33%，环比下降 3%。 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 公司发布 2025 年三季报：前三季度实现收入 23.59 亿元，同比增长 24%，归属净利润 2.57 亿 元，同比增长 27%，扣非净利润 2 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司点评丨雅化集团（002497.SZ） [Table_Title] 锂价回暖改善盈利，民爆经营稳健——雅化集团 2025 三季报点评 报告要点 %% %% [Table_Summary] 2025Q3 公司实现归母净利 1.98 亿元，同比+278%，环比+272%；实现扣非归母净利 2.14 亿 元，同比+478%，环比+3058%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 王鹤涛 马太 王筱茜 肖百桓 周相君 SAC：S0490512070002 SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490519080004 SAC：S0490522080001 SAC：S0490525080007 SFC：BQT626 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BWM115 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 雅化集团（002497.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 锂价回暖改善盈利，民爆经营稳健 2] ——雅化集团 2025 三季报点评 [ ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨通信设备Ⅲ [Table_Title] 英伟达财报超预期，谷歌 Gemini 3 大放异彩 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 英伟达 FY26Q3 业绩超预期，数据中心业务高速增长；GB300 加速放量，Rubin 平台预计在 2026H2 加速推广。谷歌 Gemini 3 展现强劲多模态能力，支持原生生成式 UI，全面接入搜索 场景；模型采用自研 TPU 训练，有望提升成本效率。全球算力需求加速释放，产业景气再得 验证，持续看好海外 AI 算力供应链。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517110002 SAC：S0490522050005 SFC：BUX641 于海宁 黄天佑 操俊茹 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 通信设备Ⅲ cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 英伟达财报超预期，谷歌 Gemini 3 大放异彩 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 风险提示 丨证券研究报告丨 2025-11-21 行业研究丨点评报告 [Table_Rank ...

丨证券研究报告丨 世界经济与海外市场丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 就业走弱，但并非降息必要条件 ——9 月美国非农就业数据点评 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年 9 月美国劳动力市场数据表现分化：新增非农就业人数大幅高于预期，但失业率连续 三个月上升，时薪数据指向核心服务通胀压力尚且可控。总的来看，数据确认劳动力市场持续 走弱，但并未出现超预期恶化，就业端仍不足以构成美联储必须降息的理由。往前看，1）年内， 考虑到目前就业并未加速恶化，12 月暂停降息仍是大概率情形；2）2026 年，关税推升通胀但 幅度大概率有限，待关税影响逐渐明朗，美联储的重心仍会回到就业下行风险之上，届时经济 仍需宽货币呵护，美联储或再度降息 2-3 次至中性利率水平以应对经济下行风险。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490520090001 SFC：BUX667 于博 敬成宇 [Table_Title 就业走弱，但并非降息必要条件 2] ——9 月美国非农就业数据点评 [Table ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨香港交易所（00388.HK） [Table_Title] 港交所 10 月跟踪：港股交投处于历史高位，赴 港上市持续贡献增量市值 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 截止 10 月底，公司 PE 为 34.77x，处于 2016 年以来历史 39%的分位，具备一定的配置性价 比，预计伴随互联互通政策持续加码香港资本市场，港股市场流动性将持续抬升，市场整体活 跃度及估值有望随之提升。预计公司 2025-2027 年实现收入及其他收益 304/334/358 亿港元， 归母净利润为 176/188/205 亿港元，对应 PE 估值分别为 30.4/28.4/26.1 倍，给予买入评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 吴一凡 程泽宇 SAC：S0490519080007 SAC：S0490524090001 SFC：BUV596 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 香港交易所（00388.HK） cjzqdt11111 [T ...

——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（七） 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 基金久期测算方法全解 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本报告系统梳理了利率敏感性法、递推法、重仓加权法、补券法、净值回归法等基金久期测算 方法。其中，补券法在重仓加权法基础上引入补券，修正样本覆盖偏差、提升组合还原度，但 难以捕捉基金持仓和久期的动态变化。净值回归法以基金收益率对债券指数涨跌幅的回归为基 础，引入 PLS 方法以缓解多重共线性，在拟合稳定性和动态跟踪能力上更具优势。测算结果显 示，2025 年以来债基久期有所震荡，中枢维持偏高水平。考察不同基金的择时表现，绩优基金 的久期调整方向与利率走势具有更高的负相关性，体现出久期管理在投资中的重要作用。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 20 %% %% %% %% research.95579. ...