——走在债市曲线之前系列报告（七） 固定收益丨深度报告 [Table_Title] 基金久期测算方法全解 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 本报告系统梳理了利率敏感性法、递推法、重仓加权法、补券法、净值回归法等基金久期测算 方法。其中，补券法在重仓加权法基础上引入补券，修正样本覆盖偏差、提升组合还原度，但 难以捕捉基金持仓和久期的动态变化。净值回归法以基金收益率对债券指数涨跌幅的回归为基 础，引入 PLS 方法以缓解多重共线性，在拟合稳定性和动态跟踪能力上更具优势。测算结果显 示，2025 年以来债基久期有所震荡，中枢维持偏高水平。考察不同基金的择时表现，绩优基金 的久期调整方向与利率走势具有更高的负相关性，体现出久期管理在投资中的重要作用。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 赵增辉 赖逸儒 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524120005 SFC：BVN394 SFC：BVZ968 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 20 %% %% %% %% research.95579. ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨哔哩哔哩-W（09626.HK） [Table_Title] B 站 2025Q3 财报点评：广告增速依然保持强 劲，新游表现值得期待 报告要点 [Table_Summary] B 站 25Q3 实现营收 76.9 亿元，同比增长 5%，实现毛利润 28.2 亿元，同比增长 11%；毛利 率同比增加 1.8pct 达 36.7%，实现连续第 13 个季度环比提升；Non-GAAP 净利润为 7.9 亿 元，同比增长 233%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高超 SAC：S0490516080001 SFC：BUX177 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_scodeMsg2] 哔哩哔哩-W（09626.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title B 站 2025Q32] 财报点评：广告增速依然保持强 劲，新游表现值得期待 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 B 站 25Q3 实现营收 76.9 亿元，同比增长 5%，实现毛利润 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨医疗保健 [Table_Title] 创新链系列——中国创新药研发投入景气度指 标 10 月跟踪 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 伴随着创新药企业 A/H 上市和增发充沛资金，二级市场创新药估值重塑和一级退出通道打通带 来中国生物医药投融资生态逐渐走向正循环，创新药对外 BD 涌现为研发投入注入新的资金来 源并拉动行业整体研发投入意愿，中国创新药研发投入景气度或渐趋改善，随之带来创新药产 业链进入新一轮景气周期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 彭英骐 万梦蝶 SAC：S0490524030005 SAC：S0490525050001 SFC：BUZ392 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 1 医疗保健 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 创新链系列2] ——中国创新药研发投入景气度指 标 10 月跟踪 [Table_Summary2] 1、创新药上市通道变宽，IPO 募集资金充沛研发投入 创新药企业港股 IPO 热潮重现且在持续升温，未盈利企业科创板上市通道打开，创新药上市通 道变宽。医药企业港股 IPO 募集资金自 2025 年 4 ...

h[Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司深度丨敏实集团（00425.HK） [Table_Title] 敏实集团深度：欧洲新能源加速主业成长，机器 人+液冷+低空打造多维成长曲线 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司作为全球外饰龙头，2017 年积极布局汽车电池盒业务，近年已成长为全球电池盒头部企 业，规模效应下盈利水平持续提升，后续随欧洲新能源渗透率持续提升助力公司主业快速增长。 同时，公司前瞻布局机器人、液冷、低空等领域，当下进展顺利，各项业务快速推进中，后续 有望打造公司多维成长曲线。 2 [Table_scodeMsg2] 敏实集团（00425.HK） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 敏实集团深度：欧洲新能源加速主业成长，机器 2] 人+液冷+低空打造多维成长曲线 [Table_Summary2] 公司布局产能收获期，经营效率持续提升，盈利步入向上通道 公司进入产能收获期，资产周转率持续改善，2024 年恢复至 1.5。公司正处产能收获期，资本 开支见顶回落，2025H1 公司资 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨再升科技（603601.SH） [Table_Title] 盈利环比承压，关注冰箱能效提标 报告要点 [Table_Author] 范超 张佩 董超 SAC：S0490513080001 SAC：S0490518080002 SAC：S0490523030002 SFC：BQK473 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 [Table_Summary] 再升科技发布三季报：2025 年前三季度实现收入 9.9 亿元，同比下降 10%；归属净利润约 0.81 亿元，同比下降 11%；扣非净利润 0.48 亿元，同比下降 26%。单 3 季度实现收入 3.3 亿元， 同比下降 5%，环比下降 2%；归属净利润 0.21 亿元，同比上升 42%，环比下降 22%；扣非净 利润 0.02 亿元，同比下降 75%，环比下降 86%。 %% %% 分析师及联系人 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 再升科技（603601.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 盈利环比承压，关注冰 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% [Table_scodeMsg1] 港股研究丨公司点评丨吉利汽车（00175.HK） [Table_Title] 吉利汽车 2025 年 Q3 业绩点评：单车盈利持续 提升，极氪+领克业绩改善，业绩符合预期 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 吉利汽车发布 2025 年前三季度业绩。2025 年前三季度实现营业收入 2394.8 亿元，同比 +26.4%，总销量 217.0 万辆，同比+45.7%，实现核心归母净利润 106.2 亿元，同比+59%。新 平台赋能，吉利汽车开启产品新时代。GEA 架构支撑新车周期，极氪、领克、银河全面向好。 各品牌新能源转型顺利推进，规模效应逐步凸显将带来盈利向上弹性。公司燃油车基盘稳固， 联营企业创新出海模式持续打开海外新空间。智能化战略开启，加速提升智驾能力。整车强势 新周期下盈利具备较大弹性。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 张扬 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524030004 SFC：BUW101 %% %% research.95579.com 1 [T ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [6]. Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 20.38 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 101.8% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.5%. The gross margin was 20.1%, up 2.8 percentage points from the previous quarter. The net loss was 380 million, narrowing by 1.43 billion year-on-year, while the Non-GAAP net loss was 150 million, narrowing by 1.38 billion year-on-year [2][4][8]. - The company is expected to see accelerated sales growth due to its leading smart driving capabilities, a strong new vehicle cycle, channel transformation, and enhanced marketing systems. Financial improvements are anticipated from scale increases, cost reductions from platforms and technology, and the expansion of software profitability and overseas growth [2][8]. Summary by Sections Revenue and Profitability - The company reported a total delivery volume of 116,000 vehicles in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 149.3% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.4%. The automotive business revenue was 18.05 billion, up 105.3% year-on-year and 6.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a single vehicle revenue of 176,000, down 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. The automotive business gross margin was 13.1%, up 4.5 percentage points year-on-year [8]. - Service revenue reached 2.33 billion in Q3 2025, a year-on-year increase of 78.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 67.3%. The service business gross margin was 74.6%, up 14.5 percentage points year-on-year and 21.1 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [8]. Cost Management - The company’s R&D expenses were 2.43 billion, a year-on-year increase of 48.7% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 10.1%, with an R&D expense ratio of 11.9%. Selling and general expenses were 2.49 billion, up 52.6% year-on-year and 15.0% quarter-on-quarter, with a selling and general expense ratio of 12.2% [8]. Future Outlook - For Q4 2025, the company expects delivery volumes between 125,000 and 132,000 vehicles, representing a year-on-year growth of 36.6% to 44.3%. Revenue is projected to be between 21.5 billion and 23 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.5% to 42.8% [8]. - The company is positioned for a strong new vehicle cycle with multiple new models expected to enhance sales. The advancements in AI technology and smart driving capabilities are anticipated to create a significant competitive advantage, with revenue projections of 77.3 billion and 130.2 billion for 2025 and 2026, respectively [8].

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨点评报告丨软件与服务 [Table_Title] AI 产业跟踪：谷歌发布 Gemini-3，能力全面进 阶，关注多模态与应用商业化落地 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 11 月 19 日凌晨，谷歌发布 gemini-3-pro-preview，稀疏 MoE 架构，输入支持最高约 100 万 tokens，最大输出 64K tokens。Android Studio、Firebase、Gemini CLI 全部接入，200k 以 内，每百万 token 的输入/输出价格为$2/$12，大于 200k 时为$4/$18。近期模型仍在技术侧不 断演化，海外将迎来模型厂商产品密集发布期，后续展望来看，关注 AI 产品发布超预期情况。 继续看好国产 AI 链、国产算力链以及国内 AI 出海，持续重点推荐铲子股和卡位优势显著的巨 头本身。 分析师及联系人 1 宗建树 刘思缘 SAC：S0490520030004 SFC：BUX668 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com [Table_Author] 软件与服务 cjzqdt11 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 战略数据研究丨专题报告 [Table_Title] 红利择时看反弹的节奏和结构：AH 红利资产 的定价模式探索系列（III） 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 陈洁敏 SAC：S0490518120005 SFC：BUT348 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 在报告《杠铃策略如何增强？【成长-红利】的轮动配置与择时》中，我们总结过风格维度上红 利和成长相对强弱的核心驱动力：偏长期角度看，投资者预期某类资产的基本面景气度相对强 势是支撑某一风格持续占优的必要条件；中短期上，风格演绎本质上是交易中短期的流动性/宏 观信用环境变化以及短期事件催化机会。聚焦当下，10 月初的中美关税博弈暂时告一段落，第 二十届四中全会成功落幕，上市公司三季报也悉数出炉，带来了短期风险偏好的修正，进入了 中长期维度的景气博弈阶段。 风险偏好和资金流向影响短期强弱 当下，成长景气尚可，产业趋势仍在的背景下，之所以有从成长往均衡红利方向倾斜的配置变 化，更多是基于短期市场风险偏好和资金配置流向上的变化。成 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the communication industry [12] Core Insights - The communication sector continues to experience high growth in Q3 2025, driven by AI, with a significant expansion in computing power infrastructure and deepening applications [2][10] - The overall revenue for the communication industry (excluding the three major operators) reached CNY 659.77 billion in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 16.10%, with a net profit of CNY 51.44 billion, up 19.20% [20][24] - In Q3 2025, the sector achieved revenue of CNY 225.41 billion, a 16.41% increase year-on-year, and a net profit of CNY 17.89 billion, reflecting a 26.42% growth [20][24] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The communication industry shows sustained performance with a continued high level of sector prosperity, driven by strong demand for AI and optical communication [20][29] - The revenue growth for various sub-sectors includes optical devices, which saw a significant increase, and IDC and related equipment, which also experienced substantial growth [29] Computing Power Industry Chain - Operators are seeing a slight recovery in revenue growth, with capital expenditures increasingly directed towards intelligent computing centers [8] - The demand for high-speed interconnects is surging, leading to significant revenue and profit growth in optical modules, while supply constraints are pushing up profit margins [8][29] Big Connectivity Industry Chain - The Internet of Things (IoT) continues to grow, driven by 5G penetration and demand for smart terminals, with stable revenue and profit growth across the industry [9] - The satellite communication sector is also witnessing upward trends in revenue and profit, with accelerated civilian applications of satellite technology [9] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in various segments, including operators like China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom, as well as companies in optical modules, IDC, and AI applications [10][31]