[Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨深度报告丨建投能源（000600.SZ） [Table_Title] 建投能源：冀电龙头，擎势腾飞 %% %% 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 28 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 复盘主要火电公司的表现，2025 年火电投资呈现出"北移"和看重业绩释放的特征，建投能源 盈利的持续修复驱动公司股价表现优异。聚焦公司火电经营，公司深耕河北地区，区域电源结 构支撑公司具备优于行业的电价韧性，构筑起公司强大的区域护城河；而展望来看河北区域电 力供需预计将保持紧平衡，为公司保持电价相对优势提供强有力支撑。此外，公司在建及储备 项目丰厚，参控股火电机组投产后预计将为公司带来 34%的权益装机成长空间，2026 年公司 将步入明确的成长兑现期。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SFC：BQT627 刘亚辉 张子淳 SAC：S049 ...

分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 固定收益丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 银行存款"短期化"，而非"流失化" 报告要点 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_Summary] 年初"开门红"阶段,银行存款吸收情况较受债市关注,尤其是 2026 年仍是银行定期存款到期规模 较高阶段。那么应当如何看待银行当前以及接下来一段时间存款"流失"压力？我们认为中国银 行业存款可能会"短期化",而非"流失化"。首先，中国居民储蓄率居于世界较高水平，且近几年还 有进一步提高趋势,这决定了存款不具备流失的基础。其次,预计随着定期存款的到期以及整体 低利率环境的维持,存款虽然不会"流失化",但可能"短期化"。银行存款存在短期化趋势,而地方政 府发债当前没有明显的缩久期倾向,这为银行带来久期压力,综上我们维持债市震荡观点。 [Table_Title2] 银行存款"短期化"，而非"流失化" [Table_Summary2] 背景介绍 年初"开门红"阶段，银行存款吸收情况较受债市关注，存款增长的规模以及期限结构一方面 会影响银行资产规划，例如怎样安排债券投资策略；另一方面也会影响其对主动负债如同业存 单的需求情况。那么应 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨行业周报丨建材 [Table_Title] 加大配置消费建材优质龙头，看好电子布景气 ——建材周专题 2026W5 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 加大配置消费建材优质龙头 看好电子布紧缺之下的提价 基本面：水泥出货环比小增，玻璃库存延续下降 展望 2026 年：把握存量链、非洲链、AI 链三条主线 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SFC：BQK473 SFC：BVZ972 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% [Table_Summary2] 加大配置消费建材优质龙头 消费建材不仅有强α，且β将加码。消费建材是我们年度三大核心推荐方向之一（另两个为非洲 建材和电子布），在行业底部我们不断强调，配置优质筹码比判断政策强度更容易。 为什么消费建材是优质筹码？消费建材供给已深度退出，2024 年国内塑料管产量、石膏板销 量、建筑涂料产量、水泥产量、瓷砖产量、规模以上防水产量为其峰值的 97%、82%、81%、 77%、72%、62%，供给退出程度：防水>涂料>板材、瓷砖>石膏板，预计东方雨虹防水、三 棵树涂料等销量角度已创 2021 年以来的新高 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 张韦华 司旗 宋尚骞 刘亚辉 张子淳 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨大唐发电（601991.SH） [Table_Title] 单季经营延续改善，全年业绩弹性释放 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 2025 年公司实现上网电量 2731.09 亿千瓦时，同比增长 1.41%，其中第四季度公司完成上网 电量 668.68 亿千瓦时，同比微降 0.50%。电价方面，2025 年公司平均上网电价约为 0.435 元 /千瓦时，同比降低约 0.017 元/千瓦时。在燃料成本仍同比改善的带动下，四季度公司主业经营 延续改善趋势，公司预计 2025 年实现归母净利润 68 亿元到 78 亿元，同比增加 51%到 73%； 四季度公司预计实现归母净利润 0.88 亿元到 10.88 亿元，同比增加 14%到 1317%。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 26th to January 30th, the performance of general credit bonds was stronger than that of secondary capital bonds, possibly due to some institutions taking phased profit - taking after the yields of secondary capital bonds declined for two consecutive weeks. Large banks increased their allocation of interest - rate bonds due to abundant liabilities, small and medium - sized banks became more cautious, wealth management products increased their allocation of low - volatility amortized cost - based bond funds under the net - value constraint, and insurance preferred local government bonds. In the next few weeks, the concentrated opening of amortized bond funds will benefit specific - term credit bonds, and the market of secondary capital bonds is driven by the buying power of funds and insurance, with different yield performances for each term. In terms of future allocation, it is recommended to focus on 5 - year AA+ and AAA urban investment bonds with more attractive interest - rate differentials, and for secondary capital bonds, focus on the allocation opportunities of medium - and long - term varieties after phased profit - taking and the warming of market sentiment [3]. - The overall credit bond market recently followed the fluctuations of interest - rate bonds but showed relative resilience. Urban investment bonds generally outperformed secondary and perpetual bonds. The short - end interest rates of interest - rate bonds rose due to the temporary tightening of the capital market, while the long - end and ultra - long - end interest rates fluctuated under the alternating influence of stock market sentiment and policy expectations. The weakening participation of trading - type funds in ultra - long - term interest - rate bonds led to a shift of funds to credit bonds, which is a key reason for the relatively better performance of credit bonds [7]. - The behaviors of major investment institutions have significantly diverged, affecting the supply - demand pattern of credit bonds. Large banks increased their net purchases of interest - rate bonds due to asset shortages and abundant liabilities, which created conditions for the narrowing of credit spreads. At the end of 2025, wealth management products slightly increased their holdings of credit bonds but significantly increased their holdings of public funds, cash, and deposits. This reflects the demand for stable asset net values under the net - value transformation [8]. - In the future, asset supply and specific product cycles will directly affect the credit bond market. Although the supply of government bonds in January was large, the market interest rates remained stable due to the active participation of insurance and other allocation funds, providing a good allocation window for credit bonds. The upcoming opening peak of amortized cost - based bond funds in the next 16 weeks will bring re - allocation demand for corresponding - term credit bonds, and the deepening of the net - value transformation of wealth management products may increase the demand for medium - and long - term amortized bond funds, benefiting medium - and long - term credit bonds [9]. - The recent strong market of secondary capital bonds is driven by the implementation of the new public - fund fee regulations, the structural change of bond - type funds, and the hot sales of dividend - insurance products. Currently, the market has shown signs of differentiation. The yields of 1 - 3 - year varieties have fallen back to near the previous lows, with a narrowing spread protection space, while the 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year varieties still have a certain spread protection margin and relatively high allocation cost - effectiveness. The market rhythm is expected to slow down, and medium - and long - term secondary capital bonds still have certain allocation value. In terms of the allocation strategy, it is recommended to focus on 5 - year AA+ and AAA urban investment bonds and medium - and long - term secondary capital bonds with relatively sufficient spread protection [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 10Y Treasury Bonds: Large Banks Net Buy, Small and Medium - Sized Banks Net Sell - Since January 7, 2026, as the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds gradually declined, the net purchase volume of 7 - 10 - year treasury bonds by large banks showed a fluctuating upward trend, with a single - day peak of 14.105 billion yuan. The increase in large - bank purchases of 10 - year treasury bonds has created conditions for the narrowing of credit spreads. On the demand side, bank deposits have shown super - seasonal growth, increasing the scale of on - balance - sheet funds and reducing the pressure on the liability side. On the supply side, the slow issuance of government bonds, especially local government bonds, has created an asset gap, forcing large banks to increase their net purchases [19]. - In contrast, small and medium - sized banks have a more obvious left - hand trading characteristic in bond investment. Since January 7, 2026, as the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds declined, their willingness to allocate medium - and long - term treasury bonds decreased. Their conservative trading strategy is a passive choice due to the weakening of the traditional profit model. The narrowing of the interest - rate spread of 3 - year large - denomination certificates of deposit between representative city commercial banks and large banks has limited their bond - allocation funds, and the increasing difficulty and risk of obtaining capital gains through trading in the volatile bond market have made them more cautious, focusing on stable coupon income [24]. Bank Wealth Management: Slightly Increase Holdings of Credit Bonds, Focus on Low - Volatility and High - Liquidity Assets - At the end of 2025, bank wealth management slightly increased its holdings of credit bonds, focused on increasing the allocation of public funds, cash, and bank deposits, and reduced its holdings of equity - type assets and inter - bank certificates of deposit. The proportion of bond investment was at a low level in recent years. The increase in public - fund investment may be related to the increase in the allocation of amortized cost - based bond funds and bond ETFs, and the increase in cash and bank - deposit investment may be due to the temporary increase in the supply of inter - bank deposits at the end of the year and the relatively attractive interest rates. The decrease in the scale of equity - type assets and inter - bank certificates of deposit may be due to the contraction of the net supply of inter - bank certificates of deposit [30]. New Trends in the Long - Term Bond Market: Slower Brokerage Trading, Insurance Allocation Shift - At the beginning of the year, the concentrated short - selling behavior of brokerage self - operation in 30 - year treasury bonds, combined with the weak承接 power of insurance and other allocation funds, suppressed the trading sentiment of interest - rate bonds. Trading - type investors, represented by funds, reduced their participation in 30 - year treasury bonds and shifted some funds to credit bonds, which is an important reason for the relatively better performance of credit bonds. The selling amount and borrowing balance of 20 - 30Y treasury bonds by brokerage self - operation have declined recently, but they are still at a relatively high level. Insurance institutions prefer local government bonds over 30 - year treasury bonds, mainly for the relatively higher coupon and continuous tax advantages [33]. Is the Supply of Government Bonds in January in Line with Expectations? - Although the supply of government bonds in January was large, the active participation of allocation funds, mainly insurance, in local government bonds effectively alleviated the supply pressure, and the market interest rates remained stable, providing a good allocation window for credit bonds. The actual issuance volume of government bonds in January 2026 was higher than the planned volume, and the issuance scale was basically the same as that of the same period in 2025. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the issuance scale was actually similar to that of the previous year [40]. Future 16 Weeks: Peak Opening of Amortized Bond Funds, Benefiting Corresponding - Term Credit Bonds - The next 16 weeks will be the peak opening period of amortized bond funds, with those with a fixed - opening period of less than 1 year and more than 5 years being the main types, which will have a positive impact on corresponding - term credit bonds. The demand of wealth management products for stable net values may benefit medium - and long - term credit bonds. The opening scale in February is small, but there will be a peak in March. The term structure shows that in February, bonds with a term of more than 5 years are the main type, and in March, bonds with a term of less than 1 year are the main type, which may increase the demand for corresponding - term credit bonds [48]. Adjustment of Cash - Bond Trading Data Caliber: Institutional Classification and Callable Bond Terms - The adjustment of the institutional net - purchase data caliber implemented in 2026 includes two dimensions. One is the simplification of the classification of all - market institutions, and the other is the adjustment of the calculation rule of callable bond terms from being based on the maturity date to being based on the exercise date. After the adjustment, the configuration behavior of wealth - management funds needs to be tracked through the "other" category, and the previous method of judging institutional allocation behavior of secondary capital bonds based on the net - purchase data of 5 - 10Y "other" - type bonds is no longer applicable [52]. How Long Will the Secondary Capital Bond Market Last? - The recent strong market of secondary capital bonds is driven by the improvement of policy expectations, the structural adjustment of bond funds, and the allocation demand of dividend - insurance products. Currently, insurance mainly undertakes long - term secondary capital bonds such as 10Y, while funds have become the main buyers of medium - and short - term secondary capital bonds since December 2025. However, due to the influence of the spread level of secondary capital bonds of different terms, the daily net - purchase growth rate of funds has slowed down. The yields of 1 - 3Y secondary capital bonds have fallen back to near the lows after the release of the draft new public - fund fee regulations in September 2025, with a narrowing spread protection space, while medium - and long - term secondary capital bonds still have a certain spread protection margin and relatively high investment cost - effectiveness [59]. Bond Allocation Strategy: Slightly Cooled Market Sentiment, Focus on Credit Bond Catch - Up - In the past four weeks, the market has shifted from the dominance of secondary capital bonds in mid - January to the recent leadership of general credit bonds. Based on the current interest - rate differential quantile, valuation level, and rotation rhythm, the next - week allocation priority is adjusted as follows: urban investment bonds (AA+, 5Y) > urban investment bonds (AAA, 5Y) > secondary capital bonds (AAA -, 5Y). The 5Y AA+ urban investment bonds have coupon advantages and certain credit - sinking space, and have clear valuation - repair potential; the 5Y AAA urban investment bonds have low credit risk and good liquidity; the 5Y AAA - secondary capital bonds have a relatively reasonable valuation in their sector. For previously strong varieties, such as 5Y AA and AA(2) urban investment bonds and 10Y local government bonds, caution is recommended in allocation [65].

%% %% research.95579.com 1 丨证券研究报告丨 联合研究丨组合推荐 [Table_Title] 金融制造行业 2 月投资观点及金股推荐 %% %% research.95579.com 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 长江金融行业（地产、银行、非银）和制造行业（电新、机械、环保、轻工、军工）2026 年 2 月投资观点及金股推荐。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 邬博华 于博 赵智勇 SAC：S0490514040001 SAC：S0490520090001 SAC：S0490517110001 SFC：BQK482 SFC：BUX667 SFC：BRP550 徐科 蔡方羿 王贺嘉 SAC：S0490517090001 SAC：S0490516060001 SAC：S0490520110004 SFC：BUV415 SFC：BUV463 SFC：BUX462 刘义 马祥云 吴一凡 SAC：S0490520040001 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490519080007 SFC：BUV416 SFC：BUT916 SFC：BUV596 请阅 ...

1 丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 联合研究丨公司深度丨联化科技（002250.SZ） [Table_Title] 农药稳健增长，医药 CDMO 前景广阔 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司以农药 CDMO 为基础，布局医药小分子、小核酸 CDMO 方向，成果累累，功能化学品领 域，公司布局六氟磷酸锂与双氟磺酰亚胺锂，行业周期反转，潜力巨大。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490516100002 SAC：S0490524030005 SAC：S0490521030001 SFC：BUT911 SFC：BUZ392 SFC：BVA881 万梦蝶 SAC：S0490525050001 马太 彭英骐 王明 [Table_scodeMsg2] 联化科技（002250.SZ） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title2] 农药稳健增长，医药 CDMO 前景广阔 [Table_Summary2] 行业领先的化学技术解决方案提供商 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 2 / 37 %% %% %% ...

丨证券研究报告丨 固收资产配置丨点评报告 [Table_Title] 转债市场回调后，次新转债会更抗跌吗？ ——可转债周报 20260131 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 历史上次新转债曾因"不强赎"保护显韧性，但当前其估值显著抬升，次新券和全市场的估值剪 刀差走阔，或反映高估值背景下资金对确定性的溢价追逐。当周 A 股震荡走弱，风格上大盘占 优，石油、有色等周期板块领涨，成交活跃度提升。转债市场整体走弱，大盘相对抗跌，中小 盘偏弱，日均成交额有所收敛。估值整体压缩，隐波与中位价回落但仍处高位，情绪边际降温。 个券跌多涨少，涨幅居前标的呈低余额、较高转股溢价率特征。一级市场发行提速，储备较充 裕；条款方面下修意愿较弱，不强赎概率提升，建议关注新券及次新券回调后的配置机会。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_Title 转债市场回调后，次新转债会更抗跌吗？ 2] ——可转债周报 20260131 赵增辉 熊锋 朱承志 SAC：S0490524080003 SAC：S0490524 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨长城汽车（601633.SH） [Table_Title] 长城汽车点评：单车营收持续增长，年终奖、政 府补贴等因素短期扰动盈利 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 公司 2025 年实现归母净利润 99.1 亿元，同比下滑 21.7%。公司加速全球化布局，坚定新能源 转型，持续的新车周期有望推动公司销量与业绩改善。长期来看，公司四大拓展战略打开销量 长期增长空间，智能化转型开启全产业链盈利空间。 分析师及联系人 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg2] 长城汽车（601633.SH） cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 长城汽车点评：单车营收持续增长，年终奖、政 2] 府补贴等因素短期扰动盈利 [Table_Author] 高伊楠 王子豪 SAC：S0490517060001 SAC：S0490524070004 SFC：BUW101 [Table_Summary2] 事件描述 长城汽车 2025 年实现归母净利润 99.1 ...

丨证券研究报告丨 [Table_scodeMsg1] 公司研究丨点评报告丨青岛银行（002948.SZ） [Table_Title] 资产质量比利润高增更超预期 ——2026 年度经营展望 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 青岛银行 2025 年业绩超预期，在 2024 年高基数下高增长，连续两年 20%+增速，三年战略圆满 收官后。资产质量显著超预期，风险管控能力被低估。2019 年以来加速出清存量资产质量包袱， 同时严格上收分支机构的授信审批权限，统一全行风险偏好。我们测算未来信用成本率仍存在进一 步改善的空间，同时实现拨备覆盖率向 300%以上提升。业绩连续超预期后，青岛银行已经充分验 证战略优势和治理效率，我们预计 ROE 将持续抬升。从 PB-ROE 角度，目前估值依然低估，长期 重点推荐，维持"买入"评级。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] 马祥云 盛悦菲 SAC：S0490521120002 SAC：S0490524070002 SFC：BUT916 请阅读最后评级说明和重要声明 %% %% %% %% research.95579.com 1 [Table_scodeMsg ...