2024年A股中期投资策略报告：无惧风波，踏浪而上

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - The market expects a 91.7% probability of the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in September, up from approximately 80% previously[3] - The U.S. unemployment rate in June was 4.1%, close to the levels seen during previous Fed rate cuts[88] - The core PCE in June was 2.6%, indicating a downward trend in inflation, which may lead to a rate cut around September[93] Group 2: Market Performance and Trends - The A-share market showed a mixed performance in the first half of 2024, with the Shanghai Composite Index achieving a positive return of 0.89%[32] - Major sectors such as banking, coal, and utilities saw increases of 17.02%, 11.96%, and 11.76% respectively in the first half of 2024[19] - The overall market is expected to exhibit a volatile trend with structural opportunities, particularly in technology and healthcare sectors post-rate cut[14] Group 3: Global Economic Outlook - Multiple international organizations have raised their 2024 global economic growth forecasts, with the UN increasing its prediction from 2.4% to 2.7%[40] - The global inventory cycle is entering a replenishment phase, which is expected to stabilize manufacturing sentiment[58] - The global PMI is anticipated to remain in the expansion zone in the second half of 2024, supported by easing inflation and improving demand[55]