周度经济观察：债券市场收益率下行途中

Economic Indicators - In June, tax revenue decreased by 8.5% year-on-year, reflecting a continued decline in overall demand[30] - The national government fund budget revenue fell by 32.6% year-on-year, indicating a cooling land market[10] - Industrial enterprise profits in June increased by 3.6% year-on-year, primarily due to improvements in PPI, although the absolute level remains low[6] Monetary Policy and Market Trends - The central bank lowered the OMO rate on July 22, signaling the start of monetary easing, which is expected to lead to a continued decline in bond market yields[7][17] - The bond market is experiencing a downward trend in yields, with 10-year and 30-year government bond yields breaking previous lows[17][39] - The current economic environment suggests that capital returns are accelerating downward, with a need for time to resolve overcapacity and normalize inflation levels[3][39] Consumer and Investment Activity - Consumer activity showed slight improvement in the second quarter, with significant rebounds in durable and non-durable goods consumption, although service consumption growth slightly declined[20] - Private investment in the second quarter saw a substantial increase, indicating a potential recovery in inventory levels, while residential investment faced pressure from high interest rates[21] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that fiscal policy will strengthen in the third quarter, while monetary policy remains on a path of easing, although improvements in the economic fundamentals may take time[24][28] - The real estate market is expected to face challenges, with new housing market sales declining and limited improvement anticipated in the short term[34]