Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the real estate industry, consistent with the previous rating [1]. Core Insights - The Central Political Bureau meeting continues to support previously established policies, focusing on the execution of these policies and the adjustment of existing project plans as potential catalysts for breaking the current weak balance in the market [2][3]. - Key points from the meeting include: 1) Implementation of new policies to promote stable development in the real estate market; 2) A combined approach to digesting existing inventory and optimizing new supply; 3) Continued efforts to ensure housing delivery; 4) Accelerating the establishment of a new development model for real estate [3]. - The report emphasizes that the current market is in a phase of weak balance, with inventory reduction being a primary focus. Adjustments in existing project plans, such as changes in plot ratio and land use, are expected to enhance the cost-effectiveness of these projects, potentially revitalizing stagnant inventory [3]. Summary by Sections Policy Implementation - The report highlights the need for effective execution of policies rather than just their announcement, noting that despite numerous policies introduced over the past three years, their impact has not yet been fully realized [3]. Inventory Management - The meeting explicitly supports inventory acquisition policies, with a focus on using acquired properties for affordable housing. This is seen as a crucial part of the inventory reduction strategy for the second quarter of 2024 [3]. Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the market is currently experiencing a weak balance, with both transaction volume and prices stabilizing. However, there remains significant pressure on developers' finances and a strong willingness among residents to prepay loans [3]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a dual investment strategy: selecting low-leverage leading companies such as China Merchants Shekou, CIFI Holdings, and Poly Developments, while also monitoring restructuring progress in companies like CIFI Group and Sunac China [3]. Company Performance Forecast - The report provides a performance forecast for key companies in the sector, with all listed companies receiving an "Overweight" rating based on their expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2023A, 2024E, and 2025E [7].
房地产：对政治局会议的点评-执行为上，重视存量项目规划调整
Guotai Junan Securities·2024-07-30 11:01