消费品投资进阶之道系列二：消费行业研究框架

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an Overweight rating for the consumer sector, specifically focusing on the food and beverage industry [2] Core Views - The report highlights the long-term investment opportunities in Chinese consumer leaders, particularly those with strong business models, clear growth logic, and improving competitive landscapes [3] - The consumer sector is characterized by its high research barriers, and the report aims to provide a foundational research framework for understanding the industry [2] - Key factors for evaluating consumer companies include industry lifecycle, market space, competitive landscape, and competitive strategies [3][7] Industry Lifecycle - The industry lifecycle is divided into four stages: introduction, growth, maturity, and decline [9] - Industries in the growth or maturity stages are more attractive for investment due to stable demand and established business models [3][7] - The growth stage is further divided into accelerated growth and consolidation, with market penetration rates between 5%-35% and 35%-65% respectively [12] - The maturity stage is characterized by stable demand, high market penetration (over 65%), and strong competition among a few dominant players [13] Market Space - Market space directly determines the potential scale of a company, with larger markets offering more opportunities for innovation and growth [28] - The consumer sector, including industries like dairy, condiments, beverages, and alcohol, benefits from broad user bases, high consumption frequency, and resilience to economic fluctuations [28] - Emerging sub-sectors such as Hanfu, trendy toys, and sugar-free tea drinks are experiencing rapid growth, offering significant market potential [28] Competitive Landscape - The Porter's Five Forces model is used to analyze the competitive landscape, focusing on threat of new entrants, substitute products, bargaining power of buyers and suppliers, and rivalry among existing competitors [33] - Industries with stable competitive landscapes tend to have higher profitability, as dominant players can control market share and resist new entrants [3][7] - Barriers to entry such as economies of scale, product differentiation, and capital requirements play a crucial role in maintaining competitive advantages [34][35] Competitive Strategies - Companies can adopt differentiation, cost leadership, or market focus strategies to gain a competitive edge [3] - Differentiation involves offering unique products or services, while cost leadership focuses on minimizing costs to maintain competitive pricing [3] - Market focus strategies target specific customer segments or geographic areas, providing more efficient services [3] Case Studies - The alcohol industry, particularly baijiu, has experienced multiple cycles of growth and decline, driven by factors such as income expectations, credit expansion, and regional economic activity [16][17] - Meituan successfully entered the food delivery market by identifying untapped market spaces and leveraging aggressive expansion strategies, eventually becoming a dominant player [30][32] Key Investment Opportunities - The report recommends focusing on consumer leaders with strong business models, clear growth logic, and improving competitive landscapes [3] - Companies in growth or maturity stages of the industry lifecycle are particularly attractive for long-term investment [3][7]