金属行业周报：淡季内需求偏弱，多品种价格调整

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Neutral" rating for the steel industry and a "Positive" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [19] - It recommends an "Overweight" rating for specific companies including Bo Wei Alloy (601137), Luoyang Molybdenum (603993), Zhongjin Gold (600489), Xiyang Co. (000960), and Zijin Mining (601899) [19] Core Views - The lithium market is experiencing weak demand from downstream sectors, with only essential purchases being maintained. The National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance have proposed increasing subsidies for new energy buses and battery replacements, which may improve demand to some extent. However, due to oversupply pressures, lithium prices are expected to remain weak in the short term [18][59] - In the copper sector, there are ongoing disruptions at the mining level, and smelting fees are at historical lows. Domestic demand is performing reasonably well, supported by equipment upgrades and policies aimed at boosting consumption. The report suggests monitoring related sectors [19] - The gold market is expected to benefit from a high probability of interest rate cuts this year, with significant inflows into global gold ETFs providing support for gold prices. The complex geopolitical situation and high U.S. debt levels are also favorable for gold [19] - The tin industry is anticipated to recover gradually, driven by the semiconductor sector and developments in AI and new energy [19] Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the need to focus on new technologies and industries such as smart connected vehicles, hydrogen energy, and low-altitude economy [27] - A joint action plan was released to support the aluminum industry in expanding the use of non-fossil energy sources [27] - Codelco's copper production decreased by 8.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2024 due to operational issues and adverse weather [27] - The report highlights that the average profit margins for various steel products have decreased significantly, indicating a challenging environment for the steel industry [41] Industry Data Steel - As of July 26, 2024, the total steel production was 8.75 million tons, a decrease of 0.96% from July 19, 2024, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.22% [31] - The capacity utilization rates for blast furnaces and electric furnaces were 89.61% and 49.79%, respectively, indicating slight declines [33] - The total steel inventory was 17.34 million tons, with a slight decrease of 0.02% from the previous week but an increase of 8.28% year-on-year [35] Copper - The copper smelting fees were reported at $9.10 per ton, with a decrease of 4.21% from the previous week [45] - The LME copper spot price and the Longjiang non-ferrous copper price both saw declines, with LME copper down 2.12% and Longjiang copper down 2.78% [45] Aluminum - The aluminum market is facing tight supply due to weather impacts, with LME aluminum prices down 3.59% and Longjiang aluminum prices down 1.44% [53] Rare Earths and Minor Metals - Prices for light rare earths have increased, with praseodymium-neodymium oxide up 0.97% to 363,500 yuan per ton [67] - Tungsten concentrate prices decreased by 0.76% to 130,000 yuan per ton [71]