【中泰汽车】重卡研究框架2024版：内销总量探讨——可以乐观起来

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an optimistic outlook on the heavy-duty truck (HDT) industry, suggesting a positive investment rating [1] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of studying sales volume as it drives major market trends [2] - It predicts that domestic HDT sales could reach 980,000 units by 2029, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10% from 2025 to 2029 [2] - The report highlights the investment opportunities in the HDT industry chain [2] Sales Volume Analysis - Historical market trends in the HDT industry have been driven by sales volume or sales expectations, such as the 2009-2010, 2016-2021, and 2022-2024 market cycles [5] - The stability of the HDT industry structure means that sales volume directly impacts company revenues and profitability [7] - The report suggests that the current sales volume is at the bottom of the central range, with potential for growth due to upcoming replacement cycles and possible policy changes [44] Sales Volume Research Methodology - The report proposes using the stock of HDTs (保有量) as a starting point for sales volume research, estimating a central range of 600,000 to 750,000 units based on an 8-10 year replacement cycle [11][29] - The steady-state stock of HDTs is estimated at 600,000 units (500,000 logistics + 100,000 engineering), with a sales volume central range of 60,000 to 75,000 units [29] - The 8-10 year replacement cycle is validated by historical data, showing that the current stock of HDTs is roughly equal to the sum of sales over the past 8-10 years [31] Sales Volume Outlook - The report is optimistic about future sales, citing the current low sales volume, potential for policy changes (e.g., Phase IV emission standards), and the upcoming replacement cycle [44] - It predicts that domestic HDT sales could reach 980,000 units by 2029, with a CAGR of 10% from 2025 to 2029 [45] Industry Chain Investment Opportunities - Key companies in the HDT industry chain include Weichai Power, China National Heavy Duty Truck Group (Sinotruk), FAW Jiefang, Foton Motor, and Tianrun Industrial Technology [3] - Weichai Power is the leading HDT engine supplier, with a 28.7% market share in June 2024 [49] - Sinotruk is the top HDT exporter, with a 47% market share in 2023 [51] - FAW Jiefang is the domestic sales leader, with an 18% market share in June 2024 [55] - Foton Motor is a top commercial vehicle brand, consistently ranking first in the industry for 19 years [58] - Tianrun Industrial Technology is the leading HDT crankshaft supplier, with a 60% market share in China [60]