煤炭行业2024年半年度投资展望：低估值与高分红兼备，核心价值资产有望再起

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, rating it as "promising" with a focus on undervaluation and high dividends [1]. Core Insights - The coal sector has shown strong performance in the first half of 2024, with a cumulative increase of 11.96% from the beginning of the year to June 28, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 11.07 percentage points, ranking second among 30 industry categories [6]. - The stability of coal prices is expected to enhance profitability in the second half of 2024, supported by the implementation of long-term coal contracts which have become more flexible and pragmatic compared to 2023 [2][9]. - The demand for coal remains robust, particularly for power generation, with an increase in electricity generation driving up coal demand [14]. - On the supply side, coal companies are unlikely to initiate a new capacity cycle due to limited capital expenditure on new mines, leading to a tighter supply situation [16][27]. Summary by Sections 1. Performance Overview - The coal sector has led in growth during the first half of 2024, achieving a stable absolute return [6]. 2. Fundamental Outlook - Price Review: Coal prices experienced a slight decline followed by a recovery, with prices moving from 923 CNY/ton at the beginning of the year to 849 CNY/ton by the end of June [8]. - Long-term Contract Policy: The new policy from the National Development and Reform Commission aims to stabilize coal prices, with a focus on increasing the coverage of long-term contracts [9][10]. - Demand Side: Coal remains the primary source of electricity generation, with a steady increase in power generation leading to higher coal demand [14]. - Supply Side: Coal companies are focusing on high dividends, limiting new capital expenditures and thus restricting supply growth [16]. - Carbon Neutrality Policies: New capacity approvals are strictly limited under carbon neutrality policies, maintaining a tight supply situation in the coal industry [27]. 3. Valuation Outlook - The coal sector is currently undervalued, with a PE ratio of 11.77 as of June 28, 2024, which is below the historical median of 13.53 [30][32]. - The PB ratio is also low at 1.59, indicating potential for value appreciation [32]. 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the coal sector's combination of low valuation and high dividends makes it an attractive investment opportunity. Specific stocks recommended include Shanxi Coking Coal, Yanzhou Coal Mining, and China Coal Energy [39].