Demographic Trends - China's total fertility rate has declined from 1.93 in 1991 to 1.07 in 2022, falling below the replacement level of 2.1[3] - In 2022, China's population decreased by 850,000, marking the first negative growth since 1962, with a further decline of 2.08 million in 2023[3] - The aging population is accelerating, with the elderly dependency ratio projected to rise to 51.5% by 2050, significantly higher than the global average of 26.7%[6] Economic Implications - The decline in birth rates and changes in age structure will increase social pension pressures, affecting long-term economic development[6] - The average cost of raising a child to age 18 in China is approximately 485,000 yuan, which is 6.9 times the per capita GDP[9] - Educational and housing sectors are expected to face challenges due to the declining birth rate, with a notable decrease in the number of kindergartens by 1.9% in 2022[6] Policy Recommendations - The government aims to lower the comprehensive costs of childbirth and child-rearing, including increasing personal income tax deductions for families[9] - Establishing a comprehensive maternity leave system and improving workplace environments to support parents is crucial for increasing birth rates[15] - Implementing a nationwide birth subsidy system is necessary, as current policies are limited and vary significantly across regions[27]
宏观观察2024年第34期（总第545期）：《中共中央关于进一步全面深化改革 推进中国式现代化的决定》解读系列之二-完善生育支持政策体系，促进人口高质量发展＊
中国银行·2024-07-31 17:30