平安观日本系列（四）：日本迈进货币政策正常化，对日元影响几何？

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan (BOJ) raised the short-term interest rate from 0-0.1% to 0.25%, marking the first rate hike since exiting negative interest rates in March 2024 [2][7] - The BOJ decided to reduce the monthly purchase of Japanese government bonds by approximately 400 billion yen each quarter until March 2026, aligning with market expectations [2][7] - The BOJ revised down its GDP forecast for fiscal 2024 to 0.6% and lowered the inflation forecast to 2.5%, while slightly increasing the inflation forecast for fiscal 2025 to 2.1% [8][15] Group 2 - The decision to adjust monetary policy was influenced by rising wage expectations, with the average wage increase reported at 5.1%, the highest since 1991 [15][16] - The persistent weakness of the yen also pressured the BOJ to consider rate hikes, as the government expressed concerns over the yen's depreciation [15][19] Group 3 - Following the rate decision, the yen experienced increased volatility, appreciating from around 160 to 150 against the dollar [19] - Historical analysis shows that previous rate hikes did not prevent yen depreciation due to significant interest rate differentials with the US [19][20] - Short-term appreciation of the yen is expected, but the duration of this trend may be limited due to ongoing high interest rate differentials [19][20]