宏 观 报 告 宏观深度报告 海外宏观 2025 年 9 月 5 日 日债利率新高之后：风险与机遇 证券分析师 | 张璐 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060522100001 | | | ZHANGLU15@pingan.com.cn | | 范城恺 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | | S1060523010001 | | | FANCHENGKAI146@pingan.com.cn | 平安观点： 证 券 研 究 报 告 一、 日债利率新高探因。今年以来，日债利率持续攀升并刷新 2008 年以来新高。 尤其是，4 月以后，超长期日债利率上升幅度较大。对比全球，10 年日债利 率升幅在主要经济体中居首。日债利率走高由多重因素驱动：一是日债拍卖 遇冷。今年 5 月 20 日和 7 月 23 日两次日债拍卖结果较为极端，引发市场 对于日债需求的担忧。二是寿险公司减需。日本寿险公司是日本国债第二大 持有人，在浮亏压力下减少长期国债配置。三是日本政局动荡。7 月 20 日 日本执政党国会选举失利，加剧日债抛售。四是美债利率上行。3 月以来 20 年期日债与美债利率走势同步性明显增强 ...

供应链调整影响公司Q2出货节奏，BES2800快速上量 推荐 ( 维持) 公 司 报 告 电子 2025年09月05日 恒玄科技(688608.SH) 股价:243.3元 行情走势图 证券分析师 | 杨钟 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060525080001 | | | yangzhong035@pingan.com.cn | 徐碧云 投资咨询资格编号 S1060523070002 XUBIYUN372@pingan.com.cn 事项： 公司发布2025年半年报，实现营业收入19.38亿元，同比增长26.58%，实现归 母净利润3.05亿元，同比增长106.45%。 平安观点： 司 半 年 报 点 评 证 券 研 究 报 告 | | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 2,176 | 3,263 | 4,511 | 6,036 | 7,583 | | YOY(%) | 46.6 | 49.9 | 38.2 | 33.8 | ...

证券研究报告 基金配置建议：成长风格延续，大盘或将占优 2 成长风格延续，大盘或将占优 ——9月基金配置展望 证券分析师 郭子睿 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 任书康 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 陈 瑶 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 高 越 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 胡心怡 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 研究助理 2025年9月5日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 8月回顾：A股、美股上涨，国债利率上行、美债利率下行，美元指数下行、人民币升值，黄金上涨。美联储释放鸽派信号，降息预期升温，美 股上涨、美债利率下行、美元指数下行。国内产业端政策积极信号持续，AI产业链与半导体板块爆发，市场流动性充裕，A股上涨、国债利率上 行。8月基金市场表现较好，发行规模上升，偏股混合型基金表现亮眼，权益型ETF基金资金净流入，主动权益基金增持质量和价值潜力风格。 9月展望：资产配置的逻辑。股债轮动模型显示，7月私人部门融资增速小幅下行，增长因子上行，通胀因子下行，经济复苏信号有所反复。但 结合动量因子来看，维持权益资产高配。我们基于7个情 ...

京新药业(002020.SZ) 地达西尼持续放量，期待创新管线持续推进 医药 2025 年 09 月 04 日 推荐（维持） 股价：19.21 元 主要数据 | 行业 | 医药 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.jingxinpharm.com | | 大股东/持股 | 吕钢/20.77% | | 实际控制人 | 吕钢 | | 总股本(百万股) | 861 | | 流通 A 股(百万股) | 724 | | 流通 B/H 股(百万股) | | | 总市值（亿元） | 165 | | 流通 A 股市值(亿元) | 139 | | 每股净资产(元) | 6.35 | | 资产负债率(%) | 30.5 | 行情走势图 相关研究报告 【平安证券】京新药业（002020.SZ）*年报点评*利润 端增长超 预期 ，创新 管线有 望持续 贡献 弹性*推荐 20250406 【平安证券】京新药业（002020.SZ）*半年报点评*成 品药院外放量迅速，精神神经创新管线持续推进*推荐 20240816 证券分析师 | 叶寅 | 投资咨询资格编号 | | --- | --- | | | S1060514 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Bank of Beijing (601169.SH) [1][4][7] Core Views - The company's revenue recovery is driving profit rebound, with a stable asset quality [4][7][8] - The bank's total assets reached 4.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.3%, with loans and deposits growing by 10.3% and 13.3% respectively [4][7] - The net interest margin (NIM) is stabilizing, with a slight decrease in loan yield and deposit cost [7][8] Financial Performance Summary - For the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating income of 36.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 15.1 billion yuan, up 3.3% [4][7] - The bank's net interest income grew by 1.2% year-on-year, while non-interest income increased by 3.6% [7] - The bank's loan quality remains stable, with a non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of 1.30% and a coverage ratio of 196% [8][10] Future Projections - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 1.23, 1.26, and 1.32 yuan respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 0.7%, 2.5%, and 5.0% [7][10] - The bank's price-to-book (P/B) ratios for 2025-2027 are projected to be 0.46x, 0.43x, and 0.40x, indicating a sufficient margin of safety in valuation [7][10] Asset Quality Indicators - The bank's asset quality remains robust, with a year-on-year decline in the NPL generation rate to 0.96% and a decrease in the overdue rate to 1.53% [8][10] - The report highlights a stable trend in asset quality, supported by the bank's strong regional economic presence [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company [1][4][8] Core Views - The company has shown a recovery in profitability driven by non-interest income, with a stable asset quality [4][7][8] - The bank's total assets reached 36.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.5%, with loans and deposits growing by 9.1% and 8.4% respectively [4][7] - The bank's non-interest income grew significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 26.4% in the first half of 2025, primarily driven by agency, custody, and other entrusted business income [7][8] - The net interest margin has continued to decline, with a net interest margin of 1.26% in the first half of 2025, down 18 basis points year-on-year [7][8] - The bank's non-performing loan (NPL) ratio decreased to 1.24%, indicating a stable asset quality [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved an operating income of 329 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 117.6 billion yuan, a slight decline of 0.9% [4][7] - The annualized return on equity (ROE) was reported at 9.1% [4] Asset Quality - The NPL ratio decreased to 1.24%, with the annualized NPL generation rate at 0.57% [8][11] - The provision coverage ratio stood at 179%, indicating a robust risk mitigation capacity [8][11] Growth Projections - The report projects earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 to be 0.74, 0.75, and 0.77 yuan respectively, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 0.2%, 1.4%, and 3.2% [8][12] - The bank's price-to-book (P/B) ratios for the same period are expected to be 0.69x, 0.65x, and 0.61x [8][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Changsha Bank is "Recommended" [1][3] Core Views - The report highlights that Changsha Bank's profitability is on the rise, with a year-on-year increase in net profit of 5.1% and operating income growth of 1.6% for the first half of 2025 [4][7] - The bank's total assets grew by 13.7% year-on-year, with loans and deposits increasing by 13.0% and 11.2% respectively [4][7] - The report emphasizes the bank's strong retail potential, supported by the robust consumer activity in the Hunan region, and ongoing improvements in its retail business model [7][8] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Changsha Bank achieved operating income of 132 billion yuan, up 1.6% year-on-year, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 43.3 billion yuan, up 5.1% [4][7] - The bank's net interest income decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, while non-interest income increased by 11.8% [7][9] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio improved slightly to 1.17%, with a year-on-year increase in the annualized loan generation rate to 1.37% [8][9] - The bank's provision coverage ratio stood at 310%, indicating a stable risk mitigation capacity [8][9] Growth Projections - The report projects that Changsha Bank's earnings per share (EPS) for 2025-2027 will be 2.05, 2.20, and 2.38 yuan respectively, with corresponding profit growth rates of 5.3%, 7.1%, and 8.5% [7][10] - The bank's price-to-book (P/B) ratios for the same period are expected to be 0.54x, 0.49x, and 0.45x [7][10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" [1][3] Core Views - The report indicates that the net interest margin decline is narrowing, and the provision coverage is solid [6][10] - The bank's revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 394.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.2%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 162.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.4% [5][11] - The bank's total assets reached 44.4 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 10.3%, with loans and deposits growing by 7.9% and 6.1% respectively [5][10] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The bank's net interest income decreased by 3.2% year-on-year, but the decline is less severe compared to the previous quarter [6][11] - Non-interest income saw a significant increase of 19.6% year-on-year, driven by a 35.4% growth in asset management revenue [6][11] - The annualized return on equity (ROE) for the first half of 2025 was 10.1% [5] Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remained stable at 1.33%, with a year-on-year decrease of 2 basis points [10] - The provision coverage ratio improved to 239%, indicating a solid buffer against potential loan losses [10][11] Future Outlook - The bank is expected to maintain its earnings forecasts for 2025-2027, with estimated earnings per share (EPS) of 1.30, 1.34, and 1.39 yuan respectively [10][11] - The current stock price corresponds to a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 0.72x for 2025, suggesting potential value for investors [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the company [1][7][10] Core Views - The company is experiencing short-term pressure on performance, with a notable decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025 [4][7] - Despite the current challenges, the company is making continuous progress in innovative research and development, with several drugs in various stages of clinical trials [7][8] Summary by Relevant Sections Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 1.642 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.29% year-on-year, and a net profit of 142 million yuan, down 40.12% year-on-year [4] - The second quarter of 2025 saw revenue of 764 million yuan, a decline of 15.09% year-on-year, with a net profit of 59 million yuan, down 42.43% year-on-year [4] - The company's gross margin for the first half of 2025 was 70.88%, a decrease of 3.67 percentage points year-on-year [7] Product Line Performance - Revenue from the injection segment was 506 million yuan, down 39.73% year-on-year, while the capsule segment generated 383 million yuan, down 4.78% [7] - Oral liquid revenue fell to 279 million yuan, down 48.78%, while tablet revenue increased by 12.26% to 190 million yuan [7] Future Projections - The company has revised its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026, now expecting 3.573 billion yuan and 3.901 billion yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 5.139 billion yuan and 5.948 billion yuan [8] - The projected net profit for 2025 and 2026 is now 402 million yuan and 453 million yuan, respectively, down from earlier forecasts of 618 million yuan and 772 million yuan [8] R&D Progress - The company is advancing its innovative drug pipeline, with several products in clinical trials, including treatments for Alzheimer's disease and other conditions [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for Anji Microelectronics (688019.SH) with a current stock price of 175.99 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 1.141 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 43.17%, and a net profit of 376 million CNY, up 60.53% year-on-year [4][8]. - The growth in revenue and profit is attributed to the company's successful product development and market expansion, aligning closely with customer needs [8]. - The report highlights a continuous improvement in profitability, with a gross margin of 56.39% and a net margin of 32.91% for the first half of 2025 [8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue Forecast**: Projected revenues for 2025-2027 are 2.595 billion CNY, 3.414 billion CNY, and 4.260 billion CNY, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 41.4%, 31.6%, and 24.7% [6][10]. - **Net Profit Forecast**: Expected net profits for the same period are 806 million CNY, 1.107 billion CNY, and 1.410 billion CNY, with growth rates of 51.0%, 37.4%, and 27.3% [6][10]. - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: EPS is projected to be 4.78 CNY, 6.57 CNY, and 8.36 CNY for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][10]. - **Valuation Ratios**: The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios are expected to decline from 36.8x in 2025 to 21.0x in 2027, indicating improving valuation attractiveness [6][11]. Product and Market Development - The company is expanding its product line, focusing on chemical mechanical polishing liquids, functional wet electronic chemicals, and electroplating solutions, primarily for the semiconductor manufacturing and advanced packaging sectors [9][8]. - The revenue from chemical mechanical polishing liquids reached 930 million CNY, accounting for 81.48% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 58.10% [9]. - Functional wet electronic chemicals generated 207 million CNY in revenue, growing 75.69% year-on-year, and represented 18.14% of total revenue [9]. Operational Efficiency - The report notes that the company's operating expenses grew at a slower rate than revenue, leading to enhanced profitability [8]. - The company maintained a low expense ratio of 22.27% in the first half of 2025, with significant reductions in sales and management expense ratios [8]. Conclusion - The report concludes with an optimistic outlook for Anji Microelectronics, supported by strong financial performance, product innovation, and market expansion strategies, maintaining the "Recommended" rating [9][10].