证券研究报告 大宗商品框架系列（三） 解构石化化工链：传统产业中的新机遇 石油石化 强于大市（推荐） 平安证券研究所 策略配置与大宗周期研究团队 陈潇榕 S1060523110001（投资咨询资格） 邮箱：chenxiaorong186@pingan.com.cn 马书蕾 S1060524070002（投资咨询资格） 邮箱：mashulei362@pingan.com.cn 2026年1月21日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 核心摘要-石化业当前局势与未来展望 2 中国石化化工业正处上一轮价格周期底部、新一轮价格周期起步的过渡阶段，库存周期正处被动去库向主动补库的过渡期间,有望渐 进迎来景气上行期。2025年7月中央财经委员会再提及"反内卷"，配合化工企业被动去库推进，工业品PPI和化工原料PPIRM有所反 弹，预示着本轮价格下行和去库期或已接近尾声，新一轮价格周期和补库周期有望在供给端反内卷、需求端促内需政策下渐进开启。 新能源的加速渗透使传统汽柴等成品油需求提前达峰，能源变革下的炼油业扩张已进入尾声，我国传统石化业逐渐步入炼油加工能力 增速放缓、供给一体化集中化的新阶段。近年来，我国汽柴油需求已提前达峰，国内 ...

2026年1月21日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 证券研究报告 JPM大会中国市场有6款顶级候选药物值得关注 生物医药行业强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所生物医药团队 分析师： 叶寅投资咨询资格编号:S1060514100001邮箱：YEYIN757@PINGAN.COM.CN 倪亦道投资咨询资格编号:S1060518070001邮箱：NIYIDAO242@PINGAN.COM.CN 韩盟盟投资咨询资格编号:S1060519060002邮箱：HANMENGMENG005@PINGAN.COM.CN 裴晓鹏投资咨询资格编号:S1060523090002邮箱：PEIXIAOPENG719@PINGAN.COM.CN 何敏秀投资咨询资格编号:S1060524030001邮箱：HEMINXIU894@PINGAN.COM.CN 王钰畅投资咨询资格编号:S1060524090001邮箱：WANGYUCHANG804@PINGAN.COM.CN 曹艳凯投资咨询资格编号:S1060524120001邮箱：CAOYANKAI947@PINGAN.COM.CN 张梦鸽投资咨询资格编号:S1060525070003邮箱：ZHANG ...

纺织服装 2026 年 01 月 20 日 老铺黄金(6181.HK) 中国古法手工金器第一品牌 推荐（首次） 股价：683 港元 主要数据 | 行业 | 纺织服装 | | --- | --- | | 公司网址 | www.lphj.com | | 大股东/持股 | 北京红桥金季咨询顾问有限公司 | | | /32.49% | | 实际控制人 | 徐高明、徐东波 | | 总股本(百万股) | 176.39 | | 流通 AH 股(百万股) | 176.39 | | 总市值（亿元） | 1086.83 | | 流通 H 股市值(亿元) | 1086.83 | | 每股净资产(元) | 44.37 | | 资产负债率(%) | 43.10 | 行情走势图 证券分析师 王源 投资咨询资格编号 S1060524010001 WANGYUAN468@pingan.com.cn 平安观点： 老铺黄金深耕古法黄金行业十余年，凭借先发优势，已打造出显著的品牌优势 地位和品牌影响力。自 2009 年创立以来，公司始终恪守品牌高端定位，系统 性地构筑了"品牌、产品、渠道、客服"差异化竞争优势。 | | 2023A | 2024A ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [1][9] Core Insights - The real estate market is expected to see a narrowing decline in 2025, with signs of recovery becoming more apparent in 2026 [1][5] - The report highlights that the sales area and sales amount of new commercial housing in 2025 are projected to decline by 8.7% and 12.6% year-on-year, respectively, which is a smaller decline compared to 2024 [6] - The report emphasizes that the recovery chain in the real estate market will follow the sequence of "volume stabilization - price stabilization - cash flow recovery for real estate companies - investment rhythm recovery" [6] Summary by Sections Market Performance - In 2025, the real estate investment is expected to decline by 17.2% year-on-year, with new construction area down by 20.4% [6] - The report anticipates that the sales area will continue to face slight pressure in 2026, maintaining a year-on-year decline of 6% [6] Positive Factors - Despite the ongoing pressure in the real estate market, positive factors are accumulating, including a stabilization in transaction volumes and prices, particularly in core urban areas [6] - The report notes that the easing of down payment ratios and mortgage rates is reducing the financial burden on homebuyers, enhancing the attractiveness of purchasing homes [6] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three main lines for investment: 1. Real estate companies with light historical burdens and optimized inventory structures, such as China Resources Land and China Overseas Development [5] 2. Hong Kong real estate companies benefiting from the stabilization of the Hong Kong market, such as Sun Hung Kai Properties [5] 3. High-quality companies with stable cash flow and dividends, including China Resources Mixc Lifestyle and Poly Property [5]

基金研究 2026 年 1 月 19 日 《衍生品交易监督管理办法（试行）（征求意见稿）》解读 完善多层次资本市场，稳慎有序发展衍生品 证券分析师 研究助理 胡心怡 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124030069 HUXINYI184@pingan.com.cn 高 越 一般证券从业资格编号 S1060124070014 GAOYUE384@pingan.com.cn 事项： 为贯彻《国务院关于加强监管防范风险推动资本市场高质量发展的若干意见》（国 发〔2024〕10 号，以下简称《若干意见》）部署要求，落实《中华人民共和国期 货和衍生品法》（以下简称《期货和衍生品法》）规定，促进衍生品市场规范健康 发展，中国证监会起草形成了《衍生品交易监督管理办法（试行）（征求意见稿）》 （以下简称《征求意见稿》），于 2026 年 1 月 16 日向社会公开征求意见。 平安观点： 基 金 报 告 基 金 动 态 跟 踪 报 告 证 券 研 究 报 告 核心内容拆解：《征求意见稿》共七章五十七条，对衍生品交易和结算、衍生 品交易者、衍生品经营机构、衍生品市场基础设施、监督管理和法律责任等 进行了规定。（1）明确监管范围 ...

证券研究报告 基金双周报：ETF市场跟踪报告 证券分析师 | 陈 瑶 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060524120003 | | --- | --- | | 郭子睿 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060520070003 | | 任书康 | 投资咨询资格编号：S1060525050001 | | 研究助理 | | | 高 越 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124070014 | | 胡心怡 | 一般从业资格编号：S1060124030069 | 2026年1月19日 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2 ETF市场回顾： • 收益表现与资金流向：截至1月16日，近两周ETF产品表现较好。国内主要宽基ETF中，科创100涨幅最大，行业与主题产品中，科技主题ETF涨幅最大。近两 周，国内主要宽基ETF中，科创100ETF资金净流入，沪深300ETF资金大幅净流出。2）近两周，周期、医药ETF资金加速流入，科技、消费、军工、金融地产 ETF资金转为净流入，红利、大制造其他ETF资金转为净流出，新能源ETF资金加速流出。债券ETF方面，信用债、国债、地方债ETF资金由净流入转为净流 出，可转债ETF资金转为净流入，政金债、短融 ...

Core Insights - The resilience of the US economy has exceeded expectations, with geopolitical tensions escalating and the probability of Walsh becoming the new Federal Reserve Chairman significantly increasing, leading to adjustments in the US stock market [2] - The MSCI global index rose by 0.33%, while US stocks declined, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones falling by 0.4%, 0.7%, and 0.3% respectively [2][17] - The US retail sales for November 2025 increased by 0.6% month-on-month, surpassing market expectations, while initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below the anticipated 215,000 [2][7] - Geopolitical tensions are rising, particularly regarding US interests in Greenland and military actions in Iran and Venezuela, which may impact market risk appetite [2][12] - The market is expected to remain volatile, with the dollar strengthening and gold prices potentially adjusting despite benefiting from safe-haven demand [2][20] Economic Fundamentals - US retail sales for November 2025 showed a month-on-month increase of 0.6%, with core retail sales (excluding automobiles) rising by 0.5% [7][8] - Initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending January 10, 2026, dropped to 198,000, indicating a robust labor market [7][8] Geopolitical Developments - The geopolitical uncertainty index has significantly increased, reflecting rising tensions, particularly regarding US military interests in Greenland and actions against Iran and Venezuela [10][12] - The probability of Kevin Walsh succeeding as the Federal Reserve Chairman has risen following recent statements from President Trump [10][12] Market Performance - The US stock market has shown mixed performance, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones experiencing declines, while European and emerging markets generally saw gains [2][17] - The 10-year and 2-year US Treasury yields increased by 6 basis points and 5 basis points, respectively, indicating a shift in market expectations [20] - The dollar index rose by 0.23% to 99.37, while commodities like gold and oil also saw price increases [20] Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong stock market showed overall gains, with the Hang Seng Index and related indices rising between 1.9% and 2.7% [35][31] - The valuation of the Hang Seng Index stands at a PE ratio of 12.20, indicating a favorable position compared to historical averages [35][32] - Non-essential consumer sectors led the gains in Hong Kong, with significant inflows into technology and healthcare sectors [40][47]

证券研究报告 金融行业周报 ——央行发布2025年金融统计数据报告，证监会就《衍生品交易监督管理办法》公开征求意见 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年1月19日 1 核心观点 央行发布2025年金融统计数据报告，证监会就《衍生品交易监督管理办法》公开征求意见 1、央行发布2025年金融统计数据报告。1月15日，中国人民银行发布2025年金融统计数据报告。拆分新增人民币贷款结构来看，企业端短贷、 中长贷均实现了同比多增，企业融资意愿略有改善，12月企业端贷款同比多增5800亿元，其中短贷同比多增3900亿元，中长贷同比多增2900亿 元。居民端信贷需求仍需政策呵护，12月居民信贷同比少增4416亿元，其中短贷同比少增1611亿元，中长贷同比少增2900亿元。从社融结构来 看，12月社融规模同比少增6462亿元，预计主要是与基数效应下政府债同比少增相关，25年12月政府债同比少增1.0 ...

宏 2026 年 1 月 19 日 报 告 中国宏观周报（2026 年 1 月第 3 周） 春节错位扰动消费出行 证券分析师 平安观点： 宏 观 周 报 证 券 研 究 报 告 观 张璐 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522100001 ZHANGLU150@pingan.com.cn 常艺馨 投资咨询资格编号 S1060522080003 CHANGYIXIN050@pingan.com.cn 从高频数据观察，本周工业生产季节性调整，工业品价格存在分化，有色 金属强于黑色；内需线下出行热度回落，春节错位对消费出行存在扰动； 出口仍有韧性，1 月以来港口集装箱吞吐量处于高位，运价存在回升。 1. 工业：本周生产环比季节性调整。1）原材料方面，本周日均铁水产量、水 泥熟料产能利用率、部分化工品开工率环比回落，浮法玻璃开工率环比持 平，石油沥青开工率、主要钢材品种表观需求环比提升。2）中下游方面， 本周纺织聚酯开工率提升，织造业开工率季节性走弱；汽车半钢胎、全钢 胎开工率环比提升。据乘联会统计，1 月第一周，全国纯燃料轻型车同比 -63%，12 月同比-29%；混合动力与插混总体生产同比-17%，12 月同比- 2 ...

Group 1 - The report highlights that since Q4 2025, the Hong Kong stock market has underperformed compared to the A-share market, with significant phase rotation characteristics observed [2][5] - The underperformance is attributed to liquidity pressure and a lack of strong industry momentum in the Hong Kong market, particularly in sectors that are thriving in the A-share market such as defense, non-ferrous metals, and telecommunications [8][21] - The report notes that the Hong Kong market is heavily concentrated in financial, software, internet, and pharmaceutical sectors, lacking representation in high-end manufacturing and defense industries, which are performing well in the A-share market [19][21] Group 2 - The report anticipates that the Hong Kong market could see a recovery in H1 2026 driven by three main factors: a potential dovish signal from the new Federal Reserve chairman, an expected recovery in profit growth for Hong Kong stocks, and accelerated commercialization of AI applications [30][31] - It is projected that the profit growth rate for Hong Kong stocks will enter a recovery phase in H1 2026, with expectations of a rebound in earnings for internet platforms and sustained high growth in sectors like information technology and healthcare [33][34] - The report emphasizes that the valuation of the Hong Kong technology sector is attractive compared to A-shares, with leading companies in Hong Kong nearing similar valuations to their US counterparts, while benefiting from a larger domestic market for AI applications [37]