中泰证券【中泰研究丨晨会聚焦】固收肖雨：减资清偿，对转债影响几何？

Group 1: Convertible Bonds and Capital Reduction - The report discusses the impact of capital reduction on convertible bonds, highlighting recent trends and case studies of how companies are responding to capital reduction events [3][4] - Since 2018, there have been 707 instances of capital reduction affecting 299 convertible bonds, with 45 cases of bonds trading below par at the time of announcement [3] - Companies typically respond to capital reduction through four main strategies: down adjustment, holding bondholder meetings, repayment, and extending cancellation periods [3] Group 2: Heavy Truck Industry Outlook - The heavy truck industry is expected to see a recovery in domestic sales, with projections indicating that sales could reach 980,000 units by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 10% from 2025 to 2029 [4][5] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of sales volume in driving stock prices, noting that historical trends show a strong correlation between sales and stock performance [4] - The report suggests that the current phase of the heavy truck market is at a low point, with potential for growth driven by replacement demand and upcoming regulatory changes [4] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Manufacturing PMI - The manufacturing PMI for July 2024 is reported at 49.4%, indicating a slight contraction, influenced by extreme weather conditions and insufficient market demand [5][6] - The report notes that the supply side of manufacturing is declining faster than the demand side, with production indices showing a more significant drop compared to new orders [5] - Despite the overall contraction, there are signs of improvement in new export orders, suggesting some resilience in the export sector [5]