食品饮料行业更新：分母端主导，确定性溢价

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the food and beverage industry, consistent with the previous rating [2][4]. Core Insights - The current influence of numerator growth on valuation is declining, while denominator risk expectations are becoming dominant. Investors are increasingly focused on risk and uncertainty, leading to a preference for certainty in valuations [4][6]. - The report suggests that the food and beverage sector, particularly liquor, has cyclical attributes. Due to weak demand expectations, risk assessments are relatively high, and investors are demanding higher risk compensation for uncertainty, thus favoring certainty in valuations [4][6]. - The report emphasizes that a reduction in uncertainty or sufficient risk compensation could drive valuation recovery. Policy and liquidity factors are crucial in influencing denominator expectations, which can catalyze valuation changes [4][6]. Summary by Category Liquor - Recommended to increase holdings in stable performers such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Gujing Gongjiu, as well as in undervalued stocks like Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao [4][6]. Beverages - Strong recommendations to increase holdings in companies with rigid demand such as Dongpeng Beverage, Uni-President China, and Master Kong [4][6]. Beer - Suggested to increase holdings in Yanjing Beer, Tsingtao Brewery, and Chongqing Beer, along with Hong Kong-listed China Resources Beer [4][6]. Consumer Goods - Recommendations include high-growth stocks like Three Squirrels and Jin Zai Food, as well as supply chain stocks like Qianhe Flavoring and Zhongju High-tech after pressure release from the restaurant sector [4][6].