农林牧渔行业2024年半年度展望：把握养殖链景气回升，关注宠物新消费

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry in 2024, specifically highlighting the recovery of the breeding chain and the rise of new pet consumption [1]. Core Insights - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to support a continued upward trend in pork prices in the second half of the year, with supply constraints and improved demand during the consumption peak season [9][21]. - The report emphasizes the cyclical price increase in the sector, with profitability beginning to materialize, and recommends focusing on leading companies in the pig farming sector such as Muyuan Foods and others [2][25]. - The poultry farming segment is experiencing structural shortages in white chickens, while yellow chicken profitability is improving, indicating a positive outlook for the meat chicken industry chain [33]. Summary by Sections 1. Swine Farming - Supply-demand dynamics are expected to support pork prices, with a forecast of continued price increases in the second half of the year due to supply constraints and improved demand [9][21]. - The report highlights that the breeding stock of sows has been decreasing, with a significant reduction from the peak in 2022, which is expected to impact pork supply [9][11]. - Key recommended stocks include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuffs, and others, which are expected to benefit from the rising pork prices [2][25]. 2. Poultry Farming - The white chicken segment is facing structural shortages due to a lack of breeding stock, while the yellow chicken segment is seeing profitability improvements [33]. - The report suggests focusing on upstream suppliers of parent and commercial chicken breeds, as well as commercial meat chicken farming enterprises [33]. 3. Animal Health - The recovery in farming profitability is anticipated to boost the animal health industry, with increased demand for veterinary products, particularly for pigs [2][3]. - Long-term growth is expected from the introduction of new vaccine products, with leading companies in research and development being recommended [2]. 4. Feed - Demand for pig feed is expected to rebound, while aquaculture feed is also projected to improve due to a recovery in raw material prices [2]. - Companies with strong formulation development and cost control capabilities are expected to stand out in the competitive landscape [2]. 5. Crop Seed Industry - The report notes a stable supply of staple grains in 2024, with a focus on the acceleration of biotechnology breeding and the impact of La Niña weather patterns on crops [3]. - Companies that have early investments in genetically modified seeds and leading technology are recommended for monitoring [3]. 6. Pet Industry - The pet food export business is experiencing rapid growth, and domestic market consumption remains resilient, with local brands gaining market share [3]. - The report recommends focusing on leading companies in the pet food sector that are adapting to health and refinement trends in consumer preferences [3].