7月狭义乘用车零售预计173.0万辆，以旧换新补贴力度加大

Investment Rating - The automotive industry maintains an "Outperform" rating for July, with expectations of improved demand due to increased subsidies for vehicle trade-ins [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the retail sales of narrow-sense passenger vehicles are expected to reach 1.73 million units in July, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 2.2% and a month-on-month decrease of 2.0%. However, the retail sales of new energy vehicles are projected to be around 860,000 units, showing a year-on-year growth of 34.1% and a penetration rate expected to rise to 49.7% [3][9]. - The Chinese government has announced measures to support the automotive industry, including a special bond fund of approximately 300 billion yuan to enhance vehicle trade-in subsidies. The subsidy for scrapping vehicles that meet certain criteria has been increased to 20,000 yuan for new energy vehicles and 15,000 yuan for fuel vehicles with an engine size of 2.0 liters or less [3][9]. - The report notes significant growth in vehicle scrapping applications, with over 364,000 applications submitted as of July 25, indicating a strong upward trend in demand [3][9]. Market Performance - The A-share automotive sector outperformed the broader market, with the automotive index declining by 1.90% compared to a 3.67% drop in the CSI 300 index. The passenger vehicle segment saw a decline of 2.90%, while the commercial vehicle segment increased by 3.82% [4][6]. - The report suggests focusing on companies such as BYD, Changan Automobile, Great Wall Motors, and others in the passenger vehicle sector, as well as China National Heavy Duty Truck Group and Weichai Power in the commercial vehicle sector [4][6]. New Vehicle Launches - Upcoming vehicle launches include the Chery Automobile's Jetour X70 PLUS and BAIC Blue Valley's Enjoy S9, with expected prices ranging from 89,900 to 165,800 yuan for the Jetour and 450,000 to 550,000 yuan for the Enjoy S9 [25]. Key Data Tracking - The report tracks various commodity prices relevant to the automotive industry, noting a decline in steel, aluminum, and natural rubber prices since March 2024, while polypropylene prices have increased [26][28][34].