汽车行业深度报告-汽车出海系列：东南亚汽车市场展望：乘新能源之势，展中国车之翅

Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive industry, particularly focusing on the Southeast Asian market [1] Core Views - ASEAN has been China's largest trading partner for four consecutive years, with bilateral trade reaching $911.7 billion in 2023 [6] - China exported 444,000 passenger vehicles to ASEAN in 2023, a 34.9% YoY increase, with export value surging 102.2% to RMB 32.1 billion [6] - ASEAN's annual car sales remain stable at 3-3.5 million units, with Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia being the top markets [6] - Japanese automakers dominate ASEAN production, accounting for 76.7% of total output in 2023, while Chinese automakers only contributed 1.2% [6] - ASEAN countries are actively promoting local production of new energy vehicles (NEVs) through tax incentives and infrastructure development [6] - The report predicts Chinese automakers will sell 158,000/202,000/252,000 passenger vehicles in ASEAN from 2024 to 2026 [6] Southeast Asian Automotive Market Overview - ASEAN's annual car sales are stable at 3-3.5 million units, with Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia being the top markets [12] - The demand structure in ASEAN is diverse, with sedans and SUVs accounting for 48%, MPVs at 16%, and pickup trucks at 13% [14] - Thailand, Indonesia, and Malaysia are the main automotive production hubs, contributing 98% of ASEAN's total output [16] - Japanese automakers dominate ASEAN production, with Toyota alone accounting for 39.2% of total output in 2023 [17] - ASEAN countries are actively promoting NEV localization through tax incentives, infrastructure development, and penalties for traditional fuel vehicles [6] Chinese Automakers' Opportunities in ASEAN - Chinese automakers are expected to sell 158,000/202,000/252,000 passenger vehicles in ASEAN from 2024 to 2026 [6] - BYD, Geely, Great Wall Motors, Changan, SAIC, and Leapmotor are among the key Chinese automakers with growth potential in ASEAN [6] - BYD is accelerating its Southeast Asian expansion, with a 2061.15% YoY sales increase in 2023, capturing 33.7% market share in key ASEAN countries [82] - Great Wall Motors has achieved full coverage in the ASEAN market, with a 27% YoY sales increase in 2023 [83] - SAIC has been operating in Southeast Asia for over a decade, with MG and Wuling brands performing well [90] - Chery is making a strong comeback in Southeast Asia, with a 195.15% YoY sales increase in 2023 [93] - Changan is establishing its first overseas production base in Thailand, targeting 400,000 overseas sales by 2025 [96] Key Companies and Earnings Forecasts - BYD is expected to achieve an EPS of 12.72/16.18 in 2024/2025, with a "Buy" rating [4] - Geely Auto is forecasted to have an EPS of 0.76/1.13 in 2024/2025, with an "Overweight" rating [4] - Great Wall Motors is projected to have an EPS of 1.53/1.90 in 2024/2025, with an "Overweight" rating [4] - Changan Auto is expected to achieve an EPS of 0.84/1.11 in 2024/2025, with an "Overweight" rating [4] - SAIC Motor is forecasted to have an EPS of 1.38/1.64 in 2024/2025, with an "Overweight" rating [4]