证券研究报告 2025 年 11 月 19 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 197 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 阿里鱼驱动 FY26H1 收入高增，经营效益提升--大麦娱乐/影视院线(01060/217206) 点评报告（港股美股） 10 月乘用车批发同比增 7.5%，上汽智己 LS9 上市--行业周报 电影及剧集：电影投资环比扭亏，重视投资回报率。 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、阿里鱼驱动 FY26H1 收入高增，经营效益提升--大麦娱乐/影视院线 (01060/217206) 点评报告（港股美股） 分析师：杨仁文 S0350521120001 分析师：方博云 S0350521120002 联系人：肖江洁 S0350125050005 事件: 11 月 13 日公司发布 FY2026H1 业绩，截至 2025 年 9 月止 6 个月公司实现收入 40.47 亿元（yoy+32.7%， hoh+10.8%），毛利率 35.7%（yoy-7.5pct，hoh+3.8pct），归母 ...

2025 年 11 月 18 日 公司研究 评级：买入(首次覆盖) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 杨仁文 S0350521120001 | | | | yangrw@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 方博云 S0350521120002 | | | | fangby@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 肖江洁 S0350125050005 | | | | xiaojj@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 阿里鱼驱动 FY26H1 收入高增，经营效益提升 ——大麦娱乐（01060）FY26H1 业绩点评报告 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | 2025/11/18 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 大麦娱乐 | -7.5% | -36.3% | 89.0% | | 恒生指数 | 2.7% | 3.0% | 32.5% | | 市场数据 | | 2025/11/18 | | | 当前价格（港元） | | 0.86 | | | 5 ...

研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn 2025 年 11 月 18 日 晨会纪要 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、债市低波横盘的几条线索--债券研究周报 分析师：颜子琦 S0350525090002 分析师：洪子彦 S0350525100001 [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 196 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 债市低波横盘的几条线索--债券研究周报 关注对日本半导体材料的替代机遇，反内卷和铬盐迎来良机--行业周报 计算机专题报告：超节点渐成共识，产业链成长动能明确——AI 算力与模型应用月报（202510）--行业 PPT 报告 债市卖方情绪回归谨慎--债券研究周报 ARPPU 提升拉动订阅收入增长，非订阅业务取得突破--腾讯音乐-SW/数字媒体(01698/217207) 点评报告（港 股美股） 证券研究报告 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、近期债券市场行情复盘；2、近期机构行为变化；3、后续债市行情展望。 投资要点: 最新一周债市行情整体横盘，资金边际小幅收紧，虽然处于震荡市，但债市机构行为有以下几个特征：①大行 买短债持续 ...

Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly released on November 17, 2025, analyzing the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [1][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - From November 11th to 17th, the bond market seller sentiment continued to decline, and the buyer sentiment remained negative. The divergence of seller views slightly increased. The bond market was in a policy vacuum period, and the driving force of positive factors was insufficient. After the release of the third - quarter monetary policy report, the market's expectation of the interest - rate cut time was postponed, and the sentiment entered a wait - and - see period [4] Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 11th to 17th, the unweighted tracking index was 0.38, a decrease of 0.11 compared with November 4th - 10th. The proportion of bullish views decreased. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - bullish views: 2 are bullish, 5 are moderately bullish, and 17 are neutral. 8% of institutions are bullish, citing weak financial data, continuous decline in social financing growth, declining bank liability costs, and the continuation of the asset shortage pattern. 21% are moderately bullish, based on expectations of monetary policy easing, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, potential decline in risk appetite, and downward space for yields. 71% are neutral, as the market is temporarily in a "policy vacuum period", lacking a clear single main line to drive interest - rate breakthroughs, and institutions may take profit, while the year - end rush - to - buy demand of banks and insurance may support the market [11] 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 11th to 17th, the unweighted tracking sentiment index was - 0.03, up from November 4th - 10th. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - bearish views: 4 are moderately bullish, 20 are neutral, and 5 are bearish. 14% of institutions are moderately bullish, due to warming market sentiment, sensitivity to positive factors, insensitivity to negative factors, and the brewing of a bullish consensus. 69% are neutral, because of policy uncertainty, institutional behavior disturbances, and the market entering a wait - and - see period. 17% are bearish, citing the narrowing of monetary policy space, rising risk appetite, exhaustion of positive factors, increasing negative disturbances, and cautious institutional behavior [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing consensus on supernodes as a foundational infrastructure for AI, driven by significant capital expenditures from major cloud service providers (CSPs) and advancements in GPU/ASIC technologies [5][8] - OpenAI has secured substantial power agreements totaling over $1 trillion, indicating a robust demand for AI computing power [5][14] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in various segments including servers, liquid cooling, power supply, and storage, with clear growth momentum identified [7][8] Summary by Sections Demand Side - CSPs are raising their capital expenditure forecasts, with Google increasing its 2025 capex to $91-93 billion, Meta to $70-72 billion, and Amazon to $125 billion, primarily for AI infrastructure [5][29] - OpenAI has signed significant power agreements with NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom, totaling 26GW and over $1.1 trillion in value [5][15] - Sovereign AI investments are projected to reach $1 trillion over the next five years, with major projects in the US, EU, and Saudi Arabia [5][25] Supply Side - The report notes the continuous iteration of chips, with supernodes becoming a consensus in AI infrastructure, as evidenced by new product launches from various manufacturers [34][5] - NVIDIA's upcoming GPU architectures are expected to enhance computational capabilities significantly, with the Blackwell Ultra and Rubin architectures set to launch in the coming years [36][39] - Major companies like AMD and Huawei are also advancing their AI chip offerings, with AMD's Helios solution and Huawei's Atlas series expected to drive further innovation [41][44] Growth Segments - The server market is experiencing substantial growth, with companies like Hon Hai and Wistron achieving significant increases in AI server shipments [7] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential in AI data centers, with companies reporting high double-digit revenue growth [7] - The storage chip industry is entering a period of severe shortage, driving up DRAM prices and increasing demand from CSPs [7] Multi-modal and Application Ecosystem - The report outlines the rapid evolution of AI models, with major updates from OpenAI and Alibaba, and a significant increase in token usage across platforms [7][8] - OpenAI's new applications and models are enhancing its ecosystem, with a notable increase in daily token usage [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music-SW (01698) [1] Core Insights - The increase in ARPPU has driven subscription revenue growth, while non-subscription business has achieved breakthroughs [2][6] - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.15 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year [6][11] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 20.6% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 0.2% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 36% [6] - Non-GAAP net profit was 2.48 billion yuan, up 28% year-over-year [6] - Operating costs increased by 18.8% year-over-year, primarily due to rising costs in offline performances, IP-related expenses, and advertising agency fees [6] - Gross margin stood at 43.5%, with a year-over-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [6] Business Segmentation - Online music service revenue for Q3 2025 was 6.97 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 27.2% [7] - Subscription revenue within online music reached 4.5 billion yuan, up 17.2% year-over-year [7] - Non-subscription revenue surged to 2.47 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 50.6% [7] User Metrics - The number of paid users reached 126 million, a year-over-year increase of 6% [7] - The ARPPU for Q3 2025 was 11.9 yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10% [7] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 32.98 billion yuan, 36.86 billion yuan, and 40.73 billion yuan respectively [11] - Projected net profit for the same period is 11.13 billion yuan, 9.84 billion yuan, and 11.16 billion yuan respectively [11] - The report anticipates continued growth driven by an increase in paid users and ARPPU, alongside strong performance in non-subscription business [11]

Group 1 - The report highlights that Electric Power Investment Energy plans to acquire 100% equity of Baiyin Hwa Coal Power for 11.149 billion yuan, which will enhance the company's coal, electricity, and aluminum advantages [4][5][6] - Baiyin Hwa Coal Power has significant assets, including an annual lignite production capacity of 15 million tons, 192 MW of installed power generation capacity, and an aluminum production capacity of 40,530 tons per year [6][7] - The acquisition is expected to increase the company's profit by over 30%, with Baiyin Hwa Coal Power contributing approximately 20 billion yuan to net profit in 2025 [7][8] Group 2 - The report indicates that the top-level design continues to support the development of energy storage, with rising prices for hexafluorophosphate [9][10] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing significant fluctuations, but there is confidence in supply-side reforms, which are expected to improve industry conditions [9][10] - Wind power projects are anticipated to accelerate due to favorable pricing policies, with a projected annual demand of around 140 GW for wind turbines during the 14th Five-Year Plan [11][12] Group 3 - JD Group's Q3 2025 revenue reached 299.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15%, with a notable growth in retail and logistics segments [19][20][21] - The retail segment's revenue grew by 11% to 250.6 billion yuan, driven by high growth in daily necessities and advertising services [21][22] - New business segments, including food delivery, are showing potential for user conversion and revenue growth, despite initial losses [22][23] Group 4 - JD Health reported a Q3 2025 revenue of 17.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 28.7%, with adjusted net profit growing by 42% [38][40] - The company is expanding its online healthcare services, enhancing user conversion through online medical insurance payment integration [40][41] - Strategic partnerships with major pharmaceutical companies are expected to strengthen JD Health's market position and product offerings [41] Group 5 - Alibaba has initiated the "Qianwen" project to develop a personal AI assistant app, marking a shift towards consumer-oriented AI applications [42][43] - The project aims to compete directly with ChatGPT, leveraging Alibaba's existing AI infrastructure and models [43][46] - The Qwen model's advancements are expected to enhance the app's capabilities, making it a strong contender in the AI market [46][47]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Insights - The company has demonstrated strong growth in advertising revenue, with a year-on-year increase of 23% in Q3 2025, reaching 25.7 billion yuan [8] - The adjusted net profit for Q3 2025 was 7.86 billion yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 233% [6] - The company's monthly active users (MAU) grew by 8% year-on-year to 376 million, while daily active users (DAU) increased by 9% to 117 million, indicating strong user engagement [6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 76.9 billion yuan, marking a 5% increase both year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter [6] - The gross profit margin improved to 36.7%, up 1.7 percentage points year-on-year [6] - The company reported a net profit of 4.69 billion yuan, a turnaround from a loss of 0.88 billion yuan in the same period last year [6] Business Segments - Mobile gaming revenue in Q3 2025 was 15.11 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year, primarily due to a high base from the previous year [7] - The advertising segment's revenue growth was driven by strong performance in sectors such as gaming, e-commerce, and automotive, with AI-related advertising revenue increasing by nearly 90% [8] - Live streaming and value-added services generated 30.23 billion yuan in revenue, a 7% year-on-year increase, with paid user numbers reaching 35 million [9] Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 30.16 billion yuan in 2025, with a corresponding adjusted net profit of 2.5 billion yuan [11] - The target market capitalization for 2026 is estimated at 109.1 billion yuan, with a target price of 259 yuan per share [11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal mining industry [1] Core Views - The coal mining industry is experiencing a tightening supply due to reduced production and imports, with October coal production down 2.3% year-on-year, and imports down 9.76% [6][25] - Demand has significantly improved in October, primarily driven by increased coal consumption in thermal power and chemical industries, while the construction and metallurgy sectors have shown a decline [6][26] - The report highlights a notable increase in coal prices, with port prices rising by 56 yuan/ton in October, reflecting the improved supply-demand dynamics [10][11] Supply Side Summary - Coal production in October was 407 million tons, a decrease of 2.3% year-on-year, with daily production averaging 13.12 million tons, down 596,000 tons from the previous month [4][19] - The decline in production is attributed to maintenance, adverse weather, and stricter safety checks [6][19] - Coal imports in October were 41.74 million tons, down 9.76% year-on-year, with a cumulative import of 388 million tons from January to October, reflecting an 11.0% decrease [25][26] Demand Side Summary - Thermal power generation increased by 7.3% year-on-year in October, reversing a decline from September [6][26] - The total industrial electricity generation in October was 800.2 billion kWh, up 7.9% year-on-year, with a daily average of 25.81 billion kWh [5][18] - Chemical industry coal consumption rose significantly, with a year-on-year increase of 35.38% in October [10][26] Inventory Summary - By the end of October, coal inventories at production enterprises decreased by 135,000 tons, while inventories at northern ports increased by 432,000 tons [10][11] - The report notes that inland power plants have increased their coal inventories, indicating a trend towards replenishment as winter approaches [10][11] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and China Coal Energy, which exhibit strong cash flow and profitability [10][12] - It emphasizes the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of the current market conditions and potential for price increases [10][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the coal mining industry [2] Core Viewpoints - The coal price is expected to remain stable and slightly strong, with the northern port coal price reaching 834 RMB/ton, an increase of 17 RMB/ton week-on-week, as the industry anticipates an increase in daily consumption during the winter peak season [4][14][71] - The supply-demand balance in the coal market remains favorable, with stable production and a slight increase in port inventories, while non-electric demand from sectors like metallurgy and chemicals continues to support coal consumption [5][14][71] - The report highlights the investment value of coal companies, particularly those with strong cash flows and high dividend yields, amidst market volatility and external economic pressures [7][73] Summary by Sections 1. Thermal Coal - The northern port thermal coal price increased to 834 RMB/ton, with production capacity utilization in the Sanxi region stable at 89.79% [14][21] - Daily consumption at coastal and inland power plants showed a week-on-week change of -8.0 and +12.3 thousand tons, respectively, indicating a recovery phase [14][24] - The report notes a decrease in coal imports due to rising prices and lower acceptance from downstream users, while supply constraints from Indonesia and Russia are expected to limit import availability [14][71] 2. Coking Coal - Coking coal production capacity utilization increased by 0.37 percentage points to 84.2%, driven by recovery in some mines in Shanxi [5][72] - The average customs clearance volume at Ganqimaodu port rose to 1,366 trucks, indicating stable supply [5][72] - The report anticipates that despite short-term market sentiment fluctuations, coking coal prices will remain stable due to low production and inventory levels [6][72] 3. Coke - The supply-demand balance for coke remains stable, with some steel mills accepting a price increase of 50-55 RMB/ton, effective from November 15 [6][51] - The report indicates that independent coking plants have seen a decrease in production rates, while iron output has increased, supporting demand for coke [6][58] 4. Investment Focus - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on robust coal companies such as China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Yanzhou Coal, which exhibit strong fundamentals and growth potential [7][9][73] - It suggests that investors should consider the value attributes of the coal sector, particularly in light of ongoing market dynamics and regulatory changes [7][73]