2026 年 03 月 23 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 | | | chenmz@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 戴畅 S0350523120004 | | | daic@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 詹广鹏 S0350524030005 | | | zhangp03@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] VLA2.0 引领产品与技术共振，估值重塑提速 小鹏汽车-W（09868）2025Q4 及 2025 全年业绩点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2026/03/20 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 小鹏汽车-W | 5.5% | -6.6% | -19.5% | | 恒生指数 | -4.3% | -1.6% | 4.4% | | 市场数据 | 2026/03/20 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（港元） | 71.60 | | 5 ...

2026 年 03 月 23 日 策略周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 赵阳 S0350525100003 zhaoy05@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 中证 A500 持续净流出，股权融资高增 ——流动性周报 3 月第 4 期 最近一年走势 相关报告 《电力 ETF 景顺（159158.SZ）：把握电力资产价 值重估的时代机遇*赵阳》——2026-03-20 《流动性周报 3 月第 3 期：社融同比增速持平，中 证 A500 持续净流出*赵阳》——2026-03-18 《金属之外，涨价链还能买什么？*赵阳，袁野》 ——2026-03-12 《流动性周报 3 月第 2 期：ETF 资金转为净流入* 赵阳》——2026-03-09 《流动性周报 3 月第 1 期：宽基 ETF 流出放缓， 宏观流动性边际收敛*赵阳》——2026-03-03 投资要点: 1. 本周（2026/03/16-2026/03/20，下同）宏观资金面均衡偏松，央行通 过公开市场操作开展逆回购净投放 658 亿元。资金价格方面，短端利率 下行、长端利率上行，期限利差有所走阔。 2. 股市资金供给端有所承压，权益基金发行略有 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The demand for AI inference is continuously growing, driven by a significant increase in tokens usage, with a reported increase from 1.62 trillion tokens in March 2025 to 18 trillion tokens in March 2026, representing a growth of approximately 1011% [6][11] - Cloud service providers are raising prices for AI computing products due to rising hardware costs and increased demand for AI services, with price hikes ranging from 5% to 34% for various services [8][33] - The report highlights that the expansion of AI capabilities is expected to lead to a substantial increase in the number of active agents and token consumption, with annual token consumption projected to grow from 0.0005 PetaTokens in 2025 to 152,667 PetaTokens by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 3418% [9][38] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The computer industry has shown a relative performance decline of -10.1% over the past month, while the Shanghai Composite Index has remained stable [5] Price Adjustments - Major cloud providers like Alibaba Cloud and Baidu Cloud are increasing prices for AI computing services due to rising hardware procurement costs, with specific increases of up to 34% for Alibaba's AI computing services and 30% for Baidu's [8][27] Token Consumption Growth - The report indicates a significant rise in token consumption, with OpenClaw being a major contributor, achieving a monthly token call volume of 13.4 trillion as of March 2026 [17] - The share of domestic models in token consumption is increasing, with domestic models accounting for approximately 53.4% of the top models' total token calls as of March 2026 [14] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that the demand for AI computing and tokens will continue to rise, benefiting cloud service providers and related upstream and downstream companies [10][44] - The ongoing increase in hardware costs and the demand for AI services suggest that price adjustments in the cloud computing sector may persist [9][33]

2026 年 03 月 23 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 宇树科技披露招股书，小米发布新一代 SU7 ——汽车行业周报 最近一年走势 投资要点: | 行业相对表现 | | | | 2026/03/20 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | | | | 汽车 | | | -2.2% | -1.0% | -8.1% | | | | 沪深 | 300 | | -0.0% | | | -2.0% | 14.9% | 相关报告 《汽车行业周报：中欧电车价格承诺机制落地，多 地开放 2026 年汽车补贴，长城发布"归元"平台 （推荐）*汽车*戴畅，徐鸣爽》——2026-01-20 《汽车事件点评：以旧换新政策落地，看好 2026Q1 乘用车需求修复（推荐）*汽车*戴畅，胡惠民，徐 鸣爽》——2026-01-04 《商用车行业动态研究：2025 年 6 月重卡销量同 ...

2026 年 03 月 23 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 尹芮 S0350522110001 yinr@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] IP 衍生品及 AI 漫剧表现亮眼，新丽年内剧集储 备丰富 最近一年走势 相对恒生指数表现 2026/03/20 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 阅文集团 | -22.9% | -16.1% | 3.0% | | 恒生指数 | -4.3% | -1.6% | 4.4% | | 市场数据 | 2026/03/20 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（港元） | 27.46 | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | 22.40-46.88 | | 总市值（百万港元） | 28,049.74 | | 流通市值（百万港元） | 28,049.74 | | 总股本（万股） | 102,147.62 | | 流通股本（万股） | 102,147.62 | | 日均成交额（百万 ...

2026 年 03 月 23 日 固定收益专题研究 研究所： | 证券分析师： | 颜子琦 | S0350525090002 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | yanzq@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 洪子彦 | S0350525100001 | | | hongzy@ghzq.com.cn | | [Table_Title] 二永债机构行为分析手册 ——机构行为 100 篇（三） 固定收益专题研究 最近一年走势 相关报告 《债券研究周报：关注新一轮的 30 年国债活跃券 切换*颜子琦，洪子彦》——2026-03-22 《债券研究周报：债市定价权向券商集中*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2026-03-15 《固定收益点评：债跌结束了吗？*颜子琦，洪子 彦》——2026-03-10 《债券研究周报：10 年国开利差为何下不去？*颜 子琦，洪子彦》——2026-03-08 《固定收益点评：债市可以乐观一点*颜子琦，洪 子彦》——2026-03-05 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、二永债的机构行为分析；2、二 永债的交易信号挖掘。 投资要点: 从策略上而言，我们构建了三个交易信 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights significant growth in core net profit for 2025, driven by high-end product offerings and export expansion for Geely Automobile [4][5] - Geely's total delivery volume reached 3.025 million units in 2025, a year-on-year increase of 39.0%, with total revenue of 345.23 billion yuan, up 25.1% [4] - The company expects to launch multiple new models in 2026, including the Zeekr 8X, which has shown strong pre-sale performance [5][6] Group 2 - The report indicates a substantial increase in overseas sales for Geely, with exports reaching 121,000 units in January-February 2026, a year-on-year increase of 129.4% [6] - Geely aims to expand its overseas channels to over 2,000 and has set an annual export target of 640,000 units for 2026 [6] - The company is advancing its AI strategy, integrating AI technology into core automotive functions, and has announced a partnership with NVIDIA to enhance AI capabilities [6] Group 3 - The report projects Geely's revenue to grow to 421.8 billion yuan in 2026, with net profit expected to reach 215 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 27% [7] - The company's earnings per share (EPS) is forecasted to be 1.98 yuan in 2026, with a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 8.2 times [7] - The report maintains a "buy" rating for Geely, citing the company's strong growth potential driven by new energy products and high-end brand sales [7] Group 4 - The report on Blukoo indicates a significant increase in revenue, reaching 2.913 billion yuan in 2025, a year-on-year growth of 30.0% [8][9] - The adjusted net profit for Blukoo was 675 million yuan, up 15.5% from the previous year, despite a decline in gross margin due to rising costs [8] - The company has seen a notable increase in adult-targeted products, with a significant rise in the number of SKUs aimed at consumers aged 16 and above [10] Group 5 - The report on Xiechuang Data shows a remarkable revenue growth of 93.77% year-on-year in Q4 2025, reaching 3.905 billion yuan [13] - The net profit for the same quarter was 466 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 246.15% [13] - The company has diversified its revenue streams, with intelligent computing products becoming a significant contributor to overall income [13] Group 6 - The report on SF Holding indicates a 9.44% year-on-year increase in business volume for January-February 2026, with revenue from express logistics reaching 36.817 billion yuan [18] - The average revenue per package has slightly decreased by 0.79%, but the company expects stabilization in pricing as it adjusts its market strategy [18] - The long-term outlook for SF Holding remains positive, with expectations for growth in international business and supply chain services [19] Group 7 - Tencent Music's revenue for 2025 was 32.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, with net profit rising by 66.4% to 11.06 billion yuan [22][24] - The company has seen strong growth in its online music subscription business, with a notable increase in both user payment rates and average revenue per paying user (ARPPU) [26] - The report highlights the potential for AI to enhance music creation and consumption, driving further growth in the industry [28] Group 8 - The report on the electric power ETF indicates a significant opportunity for asset revaluation in the power sector, driven by the increasing demand for electricity from data centers [30][31] - The report emphasizes the importance of the new pricing mechanisms for electricity generation, which are expected to enhance the profitability of power assets [32] - The electric power sector is positioned as a defensive investment, with strong cash flow and dividend capabilities, making it attractive for long-term investors [34]

2026 年 03 月 22 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) 相关报告 《新材料产业周报：中国 2026 年计划实施 2 次载 人飞行、1 次货运飞船补给任务（推荐）*基础化工 *董伯骏，李永磊，杨仁文，王鹏》——2026-03-01 《新材料产业周报：三星显示正式启动第 8.6 代 OLED 面板量产，力鸿一号圆满完成亚轨道飞行试 验（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏，王鹏》— —2026-01-18 《新材料产业周报：多晶硅产能整合与战略收储平 台落地，"九天"无人机首飞成功（推荐）*基础 化工*李永磊，董伯骏，王鹏》——2025-12-15 《新材料产业周报：我国将推出动力电池"十五五" 专项规划（推荐）*基础化工*李永磊，董伯骏，王 鹏》——2025-11-16 | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 杨仁文 S0350521120001 | ...

2026 年 03 月 22 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 相关报告 《腾讯控股（0700.HK）2025Q4 财报前瞻：核心 业务稳健，关注微信 AI 进展（买入）*社交Ⅱ*陈梦 竹，尹芮》——2026-01-18 《腾讯控股（0700.HK）2025Q3 财报点评：游戏 及广告延续强劲趋势，AI 持续赋能主业（买入）* 社交Ⅱ*陈梦竹，尹芮》——2025-11-16 《腾讯控股（0700.HK）2025Q3 财报前瞻：广告 强劲，游戏增长势能充足，云业务有望加速（买入） *社交Ⅱ*陈梦竹，尹芮》——2025-10-14 《腾讯控股（0700.HK）2025Q2 财报点评：游戏 广告延续强劲趋势，FBS 重回双位数同比增长（买 事件: 2026 年 3 月 18 日公司公告 2025Q4 财报，2025Q4 实现营收 1944 亿元 （yoy+13%, qoq+0.8%），营业利润 603 亿元（yoy+17%，qoq-5%）， 归母净利润 583 亿元（yoy+14%，qoq-8%），Non-IFRS 经营利润 695 亿元（yoy+17%，qoq-4%），Non-IFRS 归母净利润 64 ...

证券研究报告 2026年03月22日 有色金属 铝行业周报：冲突持续，美联储降息预期摇摆 评级：推荐(维持) 陈晨(证券分析师) 王璇(证券分析师) S0350522110007 S0350523080001 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn wangx15@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 相关报告 -25% 8% 42% 75% 108% 142% 2025/03/21 2025/09/17 2026/03/16 有色金属 沪深300 《铝行业周报：美以伊冲突仍是主线，铝价继续走高（推荐）*有色金属*王璇， 陈晨》——2026-03-15 《铝行业周报：沃什获美联储主席提名，铝价冲高回落（推荐）*有色金属*王 璇，陈晨》——2026-02-01 《铝行业周报：避险情绪降温，累库速度放缓（推荐）*有色金属*王璇，陈 晨》——2026-01-25 沪深300表现 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 有色金属 | -11.9% | 7.4% | 68.9% | | 沪深300 | -2.0% | -0.0% | 14.9% | 请务必阅 ...