2025 年 11 月 13 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2025 年第 194 期 观点精粹: 分析师：颜子琦 S0350525090002 分析师：范圣哲 S0350522080001 投资要点: 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、如何定位当前转债市场所处位置？2、当前转债位置什么策略占优？ 当前转债市场正处于估值高位回调后的震荡整固阶段，整体处于风险有所释放但配置性价比仍待提升的过渡 期。 从百元溢价率看，自 8 月底 32.49%的高点快速回落至 27%附近后，近期企稳于 29%左右窄幅波动；双 低值中位数也在突破 170 后回落至 166–168 区间震荡。两项指标走势与 2022 年以来的多次阶段性见顶回调 特征高度相似，显示市场已逐步降温，短期泡沫风险得到一定程度释放，但尚未进入历史低估区间。后续市场 走向将更多依赖正股能否提供有效支撑，当前阶段既不属于高估值危险区域，也未到达具备显著吸引力的配置 底部。 在估值高位回调后的震荡期中，双低策略持续展现出更优的风险收益特征。 历 ...

最近一年走势 投资要点: 2025 年 11 月 12 日 固定收益专题研究 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 范圣哲 S0350522080001 fansz@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 当高估值再次成为"新常态" 固定收益专题研究 相关报告 《固定收益专题研究：再论转债择时与择券*颜子 琦，范圣哲》——2025-11-05 《固定收益专题研究：转债指数化配置怎么看？* 颜子琦，范圣哲》——2025-10-26 《固定收益专题研究：权益慢牛下，固收+的配置 之道*颜子琦，范圣哲》——2025-10-19 《固定收益专题研究：10-11 月：转债进攻的最好 时机*颜子琦，范圣哲》——2025-10-13 《固定收益专题研究：转债抢权配售策略怎么看？ *颜子琦，范圣哲》——2025-09-24 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、如何定位当前转债市场所处位 置？2、当前转债位置什么策略占优？ 当前转债市场正处于估值高位回调后的震荡整固阶段，整体处于风 险有所释放但配置性 ...

Group 1: Baidu Group (9888.HK) - Baidu Group is leveraging its strong internet foundation to build a competitive barrier through a full-stack AI approach, leading the domestic market share in AI cloud services [3][4] - The online marketing business is transitioning from a CPC model to a CPS model, with AI search expected to enhance profitability in the long term, projecting revenues of 623.91, 592.72, and 598.64 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [4][5] - The AI cloud business is positioned as a new profit center, with a leading market share and expected revenues of 273.25, 327.90, and 386.92 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [5][6] - The Robotaxi business is anticipated to grow significantly, with expected revenues of 138.32, 159.07, and 174.97 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8] - Overall revenue projections for Baidu Group are 1309.73, 1356.68, and 1443.07 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with corresponding non-HKFRS net profits of 166.00, 198.64, and 235.48 billion yuan [8] Group 2: Seres (601127) - Seres has successfully listed H shares, with a total of 108,619,000 shares issued, accelerating its globalization strategy [10][11] - In Q3 2025, Seres achieved revenue of 481.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.75% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.28% [11][12] - The company’s gross margin improved to 29.95% in Q3 2025, with a focus on high-end vehicle sales and new product launches [11][12] - The IPO proceeds will primarily fund R&D, marketing, and operational expenses, enhancing Seres' competitive edge [13] Group 3: Duolingo (DUOL) - Duolingo reported Q3 2025 revenue of $270 million, a year-on-year increase of 41%, but has lowered its Q4 guidance due to potential user growth slowdown [14][15] - Monthly active users reached 135 million, with a year-on-year growth of 20%, indicating a trend of slowing user growth [15][16] - The strategic focus has shifted towards long-term user growth, which may impact short-term revenue and profit [16][17] - Revenue projections for Duolingo are $1.031 billion, $1.265 billion, and $1.509 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [18] Group 4: Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) - Hua Hong Semiconductor reported Q3 2025 revenue of $635 million, a year-on-year increase of 20.7%, driven by ASP optimization and increased wafer shipments [19][20] - The company’s gross margin improved to 13.5%, exceeding market expectations, with a focus on high-margin technology platforms [20][21] - Revenue projections for Hua Hong Semiconductor are $2.400 billion, $3.029 billion, and $3.348 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [22] Group 5: Royal Technology (603181) - Royal Technology launched an employee stock ownership plan to enhance employee engagement and align interests with long-term company goals [24][25] - The company reported Q3 2025 revenue of 626 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 0.12 million yuan, indicating stable operations [28][29] - Revenue projections for Royal Technology are 2.502 billion, 3.048 billion, and 3.556 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [31] Group 6: New Asia Strong (603155) - New Asia Strong reported a revenue decline of 19.05% year-on-year for the first three quarters of 2025, with a focus on electronic-grade chemicals to drive growth [32][33] - The company’s gross margin improved in Q3 2025, but overall performance remains under pressure due to declining product prices [33][34] - The company is expanding its electronic-grade chemical product offerings, which are expected to contribute positively to future growth [36] Group 7: Meihua Medical (301363) - Meihua Medical achieved Q3 2025 revenue of 462 million yuan, marking a 3% year-on-year increase, with a focus on stable growth in core business areas [38][39] - The company is expanding into new markets, including weight loss injection pens and brain-machine interfaces, leveraging its existing manufacturing capabilities [40][41] - Revenue projections for Meihua Medical are 1.7 billion, 2.1 billion, and 2.5 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [41] Group 8: Automotive Industry - The automotive industry saw a 15.8% year-on-year increase in wholesale sales in Q3 2025, with significant growth in passenger and commercial vehicle segments [42][43] - The overall automotive industry revenue reached 10,585.5 billion yuan, with a net profit of 404.1 billion yuan, indicating robust performance [42][43] - The passenger vehicle segment experienced profit declines, highlighting a trend of increasing competition and performance differentiation among manufacturers [43][44]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the automotive sector [1] Core Views - The automotive industry has shown a mixed performance in Q3 2025, with significant growth in bus and parts sectors, while passenger vehicle profits continue to decline due to intensified competition [1][4] - The overall automotive wholesale sales reached 8.71 million units in Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [4][28] - The report highlights the impact of policies such as vehicle trade-in and subsidies, which are expected to support passenger vehicle sales in 2024 and 2025 [4][41] Summary by Sections Recent Trends - The automotive sector outperformed the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index with a 23.8% increase from January to October 2025, while the index rose by 17.9% [10] - The parts sector has shown remarkable performance, with significant stock price increases among component companies [22] Revenue and Profit - In Q3 2025, the automotive industry generated revenue of CNY 1,058.55 billion, up 10.1% year-on-year, with a net profit of CNY 40.41 billion, reflecting a 9.1% increase [38][41] - The passenger vehicle segment reported revenue of CNY 544.06 billion, a 7.7% increase, but net profit fell by 18.6% [39][41] - The bus segment saw a revenue increase of 30.1% year-on-year, with net profit soaring by 95.4% [40][41] - The parts sector achieved revenue of CNY 395.66 billion, up 11.0%, with net profit increasing by 26.3% [41] Key Companies and Forecasts - The report identifies key companies benefiting from the current market dynamics, including Li Auto, BYD, and Great Wall Motors, among others [4][5] - It emphasizes the potential for high-end and intelligent vehicle segments to drive future growth, recommending investments in companies positioned for these trends [4][5] Market Dynamics - The report anticipates that the industry will continue to evolve around "new energy expansion and price competition," with further profit differentiation expected [42]

2025 年 11 月 11 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) | 研究所： | | | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | 李永磊 S0350521080004 | | | liyl03@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 董伯骏 S0350521080009 | | | dongbj@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | 仲逸涵 S0350525070003 | | | zhongyh@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 公司经营稳中求进，员工持股共赴长远 ——皇马科技（603181）公司点评 最近一年走势 | 相对沪深 | 300 表现 | | | 2025/11/10 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 皇马科技 | | -15.3% | 8.2% | 53.2% | | 沪深 300 | | 1.7% | 14.4% | 14.4% | | 市场数据 | 2025/11/10 | | --- | --- | | 当前价格（元） | 16.80 | | 周价格区 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Huahong Semiconductor (1347.HK) [1][8] Core Insights - The company has seen a positive impact from price increases and product structure optimization, leading to improved gross margins [5] - In Q3 2025, Huahong Semiconductor reported revenues of $635 million, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 12.2% and a year-over-year increase of 20.7% [6] - The gross margin for Q3 2025 was 13.5%, exceeding market expectations, driven by capacity utilization and ASP (Average Selling Price) improvements [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - Q3 2025 revenue: $635 million (QoQ +12.2%, YoY +20.7%) [6] - Q3 2025 net profit: $26 million (QoQ +223.5%, YoY -42.6%) [6] - Q3 2025 wafer shipments: 1.4 million equivalent 8-inch wafers (QoQ +7.3%, YoY +16.7%) [6] - Capacity utilization rate: 109.5% (QoQ +1.2 percentage points, YoY +4.2 percentage points) [6] Future Guidance - For Q4 2025, the company expects revenue between $650 million and $660 million, with a gross margin forecast of 12% to 14% [5] - The anticipated revenue growth is supported by collaborations with strategic customers and the gradual release of capacity from Fab 9A [5] - The company plans to continue its price increase strategy and invest in high-margin technology platforms to enhance product structure [5] Earnings Forecast - Projected revenues for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are $2.4 billion, $3.0 billion, and $3.3 billion respectively [6] - Expected net profits for the same years are $90 million, $194 million, and $263 million respectively [6] - The diluted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be $0.05, $0.11, and $0.17 respectively [6]

证券分析师： 李永磊 S0350521080004 [Table_Title] 主营产品毛利下滑业绩承压， 证券分析师： 董伯骏 S0350521080009 电子级化学品发力驱动成长 | | | 2025 年 11 月 11 日 公司研究 评级：增持(首次覆盖) 联系人 ： 曾子华 S0350124080006 zengzh@ghzq.com.cn ——新亚强（603155）公司动态研究 最近一年走势 投资要点: 主营产品毛利下滑，前三季度公司业绩承压 2025 年前三季度，公司实现营业收入为 4.51 亿元，同比-19.05%；实现 归母净利润 0.79 亿元，同比-20.39%；实现扣非归母净利润 0.53 亿元， 同比-32.58%；销售毛利率为 19.89%，同比-1.25 个 pct，销售净利率为 17.66%，同比-0.11 个 pct；加权 ROE 为 3.42%，同比-0.89 个 pct。 2025Q3 单季度，公司实现营业收入 1.29 亿元，同比-20.19%，环比 -14.64%；实现归母净利润为 0.20 亿元，同比+14.14%，环比-29.56%。 销售毛利率为 17.41%， ...

Group 1 - Tesla's 2025 shareholder meeting approved Elon Musk's $1 trillion compensation plan, with over 75% of shareholders in favor [4] - Tesla plans to mass-produce Cybercab by April 2026, targeting an annual capacity of 5 million units [4] - The price of chromium has shown a significant upward trend, with metal chromium priced at 79,060 RMB/ton as of November 7, 2025, reflecting a 2,020 RMB increase from October 31 [14] Group 2 - The automotive sector underperformed the Shanghai Composite Index from November 3 to November 7, 2025, with the automotive index down 1.2% [3] - Xpeng Motors announced the launch of three Robotaxi models in 2026, featuring high computing power and a vision-based approach [6] - The new generation of humanoid robots from Xpeng, named IRON, is set for mass production by the end of 2026, featuring advanced AI capabilities [6] Group 3 - The new materials sector is expected to experience rapid growth due to increasing demand and policy support, with a focus on electronic information, new energy, and biotechnology [42] - The new energy sector, particularly in storage, has seen significant developments, with over 100 million kilowatts of new storage capacity installed in China by the end of September 2025 [48] - The chemical industry is anticipated to enter a growth cycle, driven by reduced competition and increased demand for specific sectors [41]

2025 年 11 月 10 日 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 [Table_Title] 债市做多情绪还在持续吗？ 债券研究周报 相关报告 《债券研究周报：多少机构看好本轮债市做多？* 颜子琦》——2025-11-03 《债券研究周报：固收买方开始看空债市*颜子琦》 ——2025-10-28 《债券研究周报：当前债市，买方谨慎，卖方乐观 *颜子琦》——2025-10-21 《9 月中国金融数据点评：社融正成为债市定价基 本面的拐点*颜子琦》——2025-10-18 《9 月中国物价数据点评：反内卷对 PPI 的拉升正 在起变化*颜子琦》——2025-10-16 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：最新一周债市卖方与买方的观点情绪变 化； 从我们统计的债市情绪指数来看，11 月 4 日-11 月 10 日（后同），债市 卖方情绪小幅回落、买方情绪转负，同时卖方观点分歧度下降，债市行 情缺少主线推动，情绪偏向谨慎。 卖方视角，债市情绪小幅回落。基于对 27 家卖方机构观点的统计分析， 债市情绪小幅回落，卖方偏空观点增加 1 家。从市场情绪的角度出发， 目前卖方大多数仍持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the de-stocking of live pigs may accelerate, with a focus on the value reassessment opportunities in the pig sector due to ongoing regulatory measures [3][4] - The poultry sector is expected to see improvements in its fundamentals, while the animal health sector is poised for performance recovery and advancements in African swine fever vaccine clinical trials [5][6] - The pet economy is thriving, with strong growth in domestic brands, indicating a rapid development phase for the pet industry [9][10] Summary by Sections 1. Swine - The swine industry is undergoing deepening regulatory measures aimed at controlling prices through capacity reduction. Short-term pressures on pig prices are anticipated due to increased market supply and inventory adjustments. The expectation is for a gradual policy approach rather than aggressive interventions [3][4][15] - Key companies recommended include Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs, with additional attention on Dekang Agriculture, Shennong Group, and Juxing Agriculture [3][16] 2. Poultry - The poultry sector shows signs of fundamental improvement, with data indicating a rise in the number of breeding stock and a shift towards self-breeding [4][25] - Recommendations include Shennong Development and Lihua Stockbreeding, as the industry navigates through low price periods [4][25] 3. Animal Health - The animal health sector has seen revenue and profit growth among listed companies, with notable performances from Reap Bio and Keqian Bio. The clinical trials for African swine fever vaccines are progressing, which may enhance market prospects [5][32] - Recommended companies include Keqian Bio, Reap Bio, and attention on Huazhong Bio and other related firms [5][32] 4. Planting - Grain prices are on the rise, with significant increases in corn and soybean meal prices noted. The commercialization of genetically modified seeds is progressing, benefiting companies with early investments in research and development [7][37] - Companies to watch include Suqian Agricultural Development, Longping High-Tech, and Denghai Seeds [7][42] 5. Feed - The feed industry is experiencing price fluctuations, with a noted increase in production volume. The concentration of the industry is expected to continue rising [8][43] - Recommended companies include Haida Group and Hefa Shares [8][45] 6. Pets - The pet market is projected to reach a scale of 300.2 billion yuan in 2024, with significant growth in both dog and cat segments. The report emphasizes the rapid development of domestic brands in this sector [9][54] - Recommended companies in the pet food sector include Guibao Pet, Zhongchong Shares, and Petty Shares, with a focus on the medical segment as well [9][55]