2026 年 02 月 09 日 资产配置报告 | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 林加力 S0350524100005 | | | | linjl01@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 许潇琦 S0350525080004 | | | | xuxq01@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 刘子路 S0350125080017 | | | | liuzl02@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] REITs 监管标准提升，一月全资产类型上涨 相关报告 《资产配置专题报告：黄金定价重构——估值锚、 溢价分析与路径推演*许潇琦，林加力》——2026- 01-24 《公募 REITs 月报：一级市场项目进展顺利，二级 市场收益承压*林加力，许潇琦》——2026-01-06 《2026 年大类资产配置展望：动能切换，增长扩散 *林加力，袁雨琦，许潇琦》——2025-12-18 《2025 年中央经济工作会议解读：实施城乡居民 增收计划，推动投资止跌回稳*林加力，许潇琦》— —2025-12-12 《公募 RE ...

2026 年 02 月 09 日 晨会纪要 研究所： 1、最新报告摘要 1.1、2026 年港股互联网&科技策略前瞻——结构分化，重点关注 AI 及盈利 兑现度--海外策略 PPT 报告 分析师：陈梦竹 S0350521090003 分析师：张娟娟 S0350523110004 分析师：尹芮 S0350522110001 分析师：詹广鹏 S0350524030005 分析师：陈重伊 S0350525010002 分析师：林臻 S0350525060002 联系人：张文宇 S0350125080021 联系人：邱怡瑄 S0350124070030 证券分析师： 余春生 S0350513090001 yucs@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 晨会纪要 ——2026 年第 22 期 观点精粹: 最新报告摘要 2026 年港股互联网&科技策略前瞻——结构分化，重点关注 AI 及盈利兑现度--海外策略 PPT 报告 锂电 2026 年度投资策略：景气向上，迈入新周期--行业 PPT 报告 海外出口 1 月表现强势，内销静待新车发力--比亚迪/乘用车(002594/212805) 公司点评 2026 ...

2026 年 02 月 08 日 债券研究周报 研究所： 证券分析师： 颜子琦 S0350525090002 yanzq@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 洪子彦 S0350525100001 hongzy@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 这一波 30 年空头做反了吗？ 债券研究周报 最近一年走势 相关报告 《债券研究周报：大行买长卖短的背后*颜子琦， 洪子彦》——2026-02-02 《债券研究周报：30 年国债的"逼空"行情*颜子 琦，洪子彦》——2026-01-25 《债市锐评第 3 期：利率见顶了吗？*颜子琦，洪 子彦》——2026-01-21 琦，洪子彦》——2026-01-19 《债券研究周报：10 年国债低波化*颜子琦，洪子 彦》——2026-01-12 本篇报告解决了以下核心问题：1、近期债市行情分析；2、后续市 场行情展望。 投资要点: 国海证券研究所 请务必阅读正文后免责条款部分 近期，30 年国债净借入量创历史新高，这一现象说明什么，后面 30 年可能怎么走，我们一一探讨。 第一，最新（2026 年 2 月 5 日）2500006 借贷集中度达到 38.85%， ...

2026 年 02 月 08 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 李航 S0350521120006 | | | | lih11@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 邱迪 S0350522010002 | | | | qiud@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 王刚 S0350524020001 | | | | wangg06@ghzq.com.cn | | 证券分析师： | | 李昂 S0350525030002 | | | | lia@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 吴亦辰 S0350125030017 | | | | wuyc@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 国内储能景气持续，太空光伏需求进一步强化 ——电力设备行业周报 最近一年走势 | 行业相对表现 | | | 2026/02/06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 电力设备 | 3.0% | -0.0% | ...

2026 年 02 月 08 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) | 研究所： | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 陈晨 S0350522110007 | | | | chenc09@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 张益 S0350124100016 | | | | zhangy33@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 徐萌 S0350125070001 | | | | xum02@ghzq.com.cn | [Table_Title] 本周煤价继续上涨，印尼煤炭减产信息扰动 ——煤炭开采行业周报 最近一年走势 炼焦煤和焦炭来看，对于炼焦煤，本周样本煤矿产能利用率环比+1.14pct 至 87.0%，主要系山西、山东部分前期因井下工作面问题生产受限的大矿恢复 正常生产所致。蒙煤方面，本周甘其毛都口岸因高库存及车辆换证等原因导 致通关车数下滑，甘其毛都平均通关量为 1215.7 车（七日平均值），周环比 -156 车。需求端，铁水产量周环比+0.72 万吨至 228.64 万吨。库存端，部分 矿点由于下游采购放缓而有累库，部分矿点仍有前 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Qilu Bank is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - Qilu Bank reported a revenue growth of 5.12% year-on-year and a net profit attributable to shareholders growth of 14.58% for 2025, indicating accelerated revenue growth and improved net interest margin [5][6] - The bank's net interest income for 2025 reached 10.519 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.48% [5] - The asset quality indicators have shown continuous improvement for seven consecutive years, with a non-performing loan ratio of 1.05% at the end of 2025, down 4 basis points from the end of Q3 2025 [5] Summary by Sections Recent Performance - Qilu Bank's stock performance over the last 12 months shows a 7.4% increase, while the CSI 300 index increased by 23.1% [4] - The current stock price is 5.92 yuan, with a market capitalization of approximately 36.43 billion yuan [4] Financial Metrics - For 2025, the bank's total assets grew by 16.65%, loans by 13.55%, and deposits by 11.37% compared to 2024 [5] - The bank's return on equity (ROE) for 2025 is 12.17%, a slight decrease of 0.35 percentage points year-on-year [5] Earnings Forecast - Revenue growth forecasts for 2025-2027 are 5.12%, 11.26%, and 10.99% respectively, while net profit growth forecasts are 14.58%, 17.44%, and 10.74% [6] - The estimated earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.11 yuan, 1.32 yuan, and 1.47 yuan respectively [6] Valuation Metrics - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 5.32x, 4.49x, and 4.03x respectively, while the price-to-book (P/B) ratios are expected to be 0.65x, 0.59x, and 0.53x [6][7]

Core Insights - The report emphasizes a structural differentiation in the Hong Kong internet and technology sector, highlighting a focus on AI and profitability realization as key investment themes for 2026 [4][5][6]. Valuation Perspective - Since early 2025, the valuation of the Hang Seng Technology sector has been on the rise, with the Hang Seng Technology PE-TTM at 20.05 times as of December 31, 2025, which is 0.77 standard deviations below the historical average [4][9]. - The Hang Seng AH premium index stood at 123.46 as of December 31, 2025, below the historical average of 193.92, indicating a low valuation environment [9]. Funding Perspective - There has been a significant acceleration in southbound capital inflows since 2025, with notable increases in allocations to consumer, technology, and pharmaceutical sectors [5][13]. - The proportion of Hong Kong Stock Connect holdings in internet companies has increased, with Tencent's share rising from 10.1% to 11%, Kuaishou from 11.61% to 16.64%, Meituan from 10.4% to 20.76%, and Kingdee from 24.22% to 28.22% by December 31, 2025 [5][18]. - The anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve are expected to provide a liquidity floor for Hong Kong stocks, leading to a market characterized by strong indices, structural differentiation, and increased concentration among leading firms [5][19][21]. Internet Sector Dynamics - User traffic in the internet sector is stabilizing, with a strategic shift towards high-quality growth, driven by generative AI technologies that are penetrating high-frequency demand scenarios [22][28]. - The user base for AI applications is growing robustly, with significant increases in monthly active users (MAU) for various AI apps and platforms [28][30]. - Major internet companies are focusing on AI as a strategic direction, with substantial capital expenditures planned for AI development, including Alibaba's projected capex of 1,252 billion RMB, ByteDance's 1,600 billion RMB, and Tencent's 863 billion RMB for FY2026 [6][35]. AI and Advertising Integration - AI is becoming a critical driver for revenue generation, with domestic companies like Tencent and Alibaba leveraging AI in advertising to enhance efficiency and effectiveness [41][43]. - The report highlights the positive feedback loop between capital expenditure on AI and revenue generation, as seen in global leaders like Google, which is expected to invest between 910 to 930 billion USD in AI-related capital expenditures in 2025 [37][38]. Recommendations - The report maintains a "recommended" rating for the technology sector, focusing on companies such as Tencent, Alibaba, Bilibili, NetEase, Kuaishou, JD Health, and XPeng Motors as key investment targets [7].

Core Insights - The report focuses on the robotics sector within the machinery industry, analyzing trading sentiments and market dynamics, indicating that the robotics sector exhibits characteristics of trading emotions, low trading levels, and rapid rotation, with market trends lasting approximately 2-3 months [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. Latest Report Summary - The report compiles indices for key robotics stocks and segments, including humanoid robots and components such as motors, screws, and reducers, revealing that the humanoid robot sector's trading is influenced by trading sentiment and low trading levels [2] - A review of the 2025 performance indicates that the screw segment outperformed the motor segment, with expectations for the reducer segment to gain traction due to Tesla's cost-reduction initiatives and the potential for domestic supply chain replacements [2] 2. Opportunities in 2026 - From a macro perspective, the report highlights strong transmission and rapid rotation of popular technology themes, with a clear trend of growth in the robotics sector driven by upstream AI developments, suggesting significant trading potential in the near future [3] - The mid-level analysis focuses on performance realization, examining production capacity, shipment orders, and upstream supply chain expansion for robotics manufacturers [3] - On a micro level, the report identifies key catalysts, including Tesla's core supply chain and anticipated events related to domestic supply chains, indicating a favorable outlook for humanoid robots as they enter a phase of technological breakthroughs and commercialization [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the humanoid robot industry [1] Core Insights - The report analyzes the humanoid robot sector, highlighting trading emotions, low trading levels, and rapid rotation, with market trends lasting approximately 2-3 months [6] - It reviews the historical performance of various indices related to the humanoid robot sector and discusses the logic and opportunities for 2025 and 2026 [6] - The report anticipates significant growth in the humanoid robot sector in 2026, driven by macro, meso, and micro factors [6] Summary by Sections 1. Review of 2025 Trading - The humanoid robot sector's performance in 2025 was influenced by trading emotions and low trading levels, with significant events driving market fluctuations [12] - Key events included Tesla's performance announcements and the debut of robots at major events, which significantly impacted trading sentiment [12] 2. Opportunities in 2026 - The report identifies several opportunities for 2026, including: - Macro: Strong transmission and rotation of technology themes, with a clear trend of growth in the robot sector driven by upstream AI [19] - Meso: Expected volume production in humanoid robots, with several companies planning significant production increases [22] - Micro: Specific catalytic events related to major companies and their production plans [25] 3. Key Indices and Components - The report compiles indices for core components of humanoid robots, noting that the screw component outperformed the motor component in 2025 [15] - It highlights the importance of core suppliers and their impact on sector performance, particularly in the screw and motor segments [15] 4. Related Companies and Investment Suggestions - The report suggests monitoring several key companies in the humanoid robot sector, including: - Companies focused on embodied intelligence such as UBTECH and Geek+ [28] - Gear and material suppliers like Harmonic Drive and Keda Li [28] - Motor manufacturers such as Weichuang Electric and Mingzhi Electric [28] - Companies involved in dexterous hands and electronic skin like Hanwei Technology and Nanshan Zhishang [28]

Group 1: Alibaba's Financial Outlook - The report projects Alibaba's FY2026Q3 total revenue to reach 291 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 4% and a quarter-over-quarter increase of 17% [3] - Adjusted EBITA is expected to decline by 47% to 29.1 billion yuan, with an adjusted EBITA margin of 10%, primarily due to negative growth in traditional e-commerce profits and ongoing investments in instant retail and AI applications [3][4] - The Chinese e-commerce group is anticipated to generate revenue of 166 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 10%, while the international digital commerce group is expected to achieve 41.6 billion yuan in revenue, also reflecting a 10% year-over-year increase [3][4] Group 2: E-commerce Sector Insights - Traditional e-commerce's customer management revenue growth is expected to slow down, with a projected year-over-year increase of only 2.5%, influenced by a weakening overall e-commerce market [4] - The report highlights that the instant retail segment will continue to see significant investment, with Alibaba aiming to capture the leading market share in this area [4] - The adjusted EBITA for the Chinese e-commerce group is forecasted to decline by 40% to 36.2 billion yuan, largely due to the negative profit growth in traditional e-commerce [4] Group 3: Cloud Intelligence Group Performance - The cloud intelligence group is projected to achieve a revenue growth of 36% to 43.2 billion yuan in FY2026Q3, with an adjusted EBITA of 3.9 billion yuan and an EBITA margin of 9% [5] - The report expresses optimism regarding long-term revenue growth for Alibaba Cloud, driven by strong demand for AI cloud services and ongoing investments in self-developed chips [5] Group 4: International Digital Commerce and Other Businesses - The international digital commerce group is expected to see a revenue increase of 10% in FY2026Q3, with an anticipated adjusted EBITA loss of 1.3 billion yuan [6] - Other business segments are projected to incur a significant adjusted EBITA loss of 8 billion yuan, primarily due to investments in AI and instant retail [6] Group 5: AIDC Industry Overview - The AIDC industry is expected to experience a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 40.4% from 2023 to 2028, driven by increasing demand for data centers [9] - Major cloud providers are projected to increase capital expenditures significantly, with a forecasted spending of 284.1 billion USD in the first three quarters of 2025 [9] Group 6: Power Supply and Cooling Systems - The report indicates a shift towards high-voltage and integrated power supply systems in response to the growing demand from AIDC construction [10] - The liquid cooling market for AIDC is expected to exceed 100 billion yuan in 2026, driven by the increasing need for efficient cooling solutions [11] Group 7: Energy Consumption Trends - The report analyzes the transition of electricity consumption from traditional industries to high-end manufacturing and modern services, highlighting the strong demand from emerging sectors like AI and new energy vehicles [16][18] - It projects that by 2026, the electricity consumption from the first, second, and third industries will grow by 10.0%, 3.6%, and 8.4% respectively, indicating a resilient overall electricity demand [19]