2025 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：增持(维持) | 研究所： | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券分析师： | | 马川琪 | S0350523050001 | | | | | macq@ghzq.com.cn | | 联系人 | ： | 丁婧欣 | S0350124040002 | | | | dingjx@ghzq.com.cn | | [Table_Title] 线下门店快速扩张，大单品策略稳步推进 ——新氧（SY）2025Q3 业绩点评报告 最近一年走势 相对标普 500 表现 | 1M | | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 新氧 | 0.32% | -18.77% | 266.95% | | 标普 500 | -1.38% | 4.27% | 12.26% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/11/19 | | 当前价格（美元） | | | 3.16 | | 52 周价格区间（美元） | | | 0.67-6.28 | | 总市值（百万美元） | | | 423.66 | | 流通市值（百万美 ...

2025 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 广告增长放缓，Temu 回暖，坚持构建长期价值 ——拼多多（PDD.O）2025Q3 财报点评 最近一年走势 相对市场表现 | 1M | | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 拼多多 | -2% | 21% | 10% | | 纳斯达克 | 0.2% | 11% | 21% | | 市场数据 | | | 2025/11/18 | | 当前价格（美元） | | | 119.58 | | 周价格区间（美元） 52 | | | 87.11-139.41 | | 总市值（百万美元） | | | 149,868.27 | | 流通市值（百万美元） | | | 149,868.27 | | 总股本（万股） | | | 125,328.88 | | 流通股本（万股） | | | 125,328.8 ...

——2026&2025 年电煤中长协政策对比点评 2025 年 11 月 20 日 行业研究 评级：推荐(维持) [Table_Title] 向市场化方向微调 研究所： 证券分析师： 陈晨 S0350522110007 chenc09@ghzq.com.cn 联系人 ： 徐萌 S0350125070001 xum02@ghzq.com.cn 最近一年走势 事件： 2025 年 11 月 18 日，国家发改委印发《关于做好 2026 年电煤保供中长 期合同签订和履约监管工作的通知》。 投资要点: 对比 2025 年电煤中长期合同，签约履约工作方案略有变动，量价两端略 向市场化靠拢： 1、签约量方面，维持 2025 年表述。对煤企：原则上每家煤炭企业任务 量不应低于自有资源量的 75%；对发电企业：合同签订量最低应不低于 签约需求量的 80%； 2、履约率方面，相较 2025 年表述放松。1）月度履约率-不低于 80%（表 述未变化）；2）季度履约率-原则上不低于 90%（上年表述是季度不低于 90%）；3）年度履约率-原则上不低于 90%（上年表述是年度原则上足额 履约，最低不得低于 90%）。 3、签约价格方 ...

2025 年 11 月 20 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 相关报告 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q2 财报点评：利 润强劲增长，关注国际业务长期增量（买入）*旅 游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟》——2025-08-31 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q1 财报点评：旅 游需求持续强劲，关注国际业务长期增量（买入） *旅游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟，罗婉琦》—— 2025-05-24 《携程集团-S（9961.HK）2024Q4 财报点评：延 续高质量增长，看好国际业务长期增量空间（买入） *旅游及景区*陈梦竹，张娟娟，罗婉琦》—— 事件: 证券分析师： 陈梦竹 S0350521090003 chenmz@ghzq.com.cn 证券分析师： 张娟娟 S0350523110004 zhangjj02@ghzq.com.cn ——携程集团-S（9961.HK）2025Q3 财报点评 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | 2025/11/19 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | 携程集团-S | 8.0% | ...

Group 1: Company Performance - The company reported a revenue of 4.047 billion RMB for FY2026H1, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.7% and a half-year increase of 10.8% [3] - The gross profit margin was 35.7%, showing a year-over-year decrease of 7.5 percentage points but a half-year increase of 3.8 percentage points [3] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 520 million RMB, up 54.3% year-over-year, while operating profit was 526 million RMB, reflecting a slight decrease of 0.3% year-over-year [3] Group 2: Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from live performances and technology business reached 1.339 billion RMB, a year-over-year increase of 14.5% and a half-year increase of 50.7% [4] - The IP derivatives business generated 1.16 billion RMB, with a year-over-year growth of 105.2%, marking the highest revenue share since FY2025H1 at 28.7% [5] - Revenue from film and television content was 1.06 billion RMB, down 15.2% year-over-year, while the series production business saw a significant increase of 693% year-over-year, generating 480 million RMB [6] Group 3: Cost and Efficiency - Sales expenses were 332 million RMB, up 1.1% year-over-year but down 27.9% half-year [7] - Management expenses totaled 669 million RMB, reflecting an 11.8% year-over-year increase, with a management expense ratio of 16.5% [7] - The company maintained a workforce of 1,780 employees, which is a 14.4% increase year-over-year, while both sales and management expense ratios narrowed, indicating improved operational efficiency [7] Group 4: Industry Insights - The offline performance industry is experiencing steady growth, driven by a stable supply of top-tier artists, with significant events scheduled for 2026 [4] - The automotive industry saw a 7.5% year-over-year increase in passenger car wholesale in October, with a notable rise in new energy vehicle sales, which accounted for over 50% of total sales [8] - The launch of the new model, the Zhiji LS9, is expected to enhance market competitiveness with advanced features and pricing starting at 322,800 RMB [11]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage [2][12]. Core Insights - The company has shown strong revenue growth in FY26H1, with a total revenue of 4.047 billion RMB, representing a year-over-year increase of 32.7% and a half-year increase of 10.8% [5]. - The company is positioned as a leader in the domestic offline ticketing market, with significant IP licensing capabilities, including partnerships with major brands like Sanrio and Chiikawa [12]. - The report highlights the robust growth potential in the live performance and IP sectors, driven by a stable supply of top-tier artists and successful events [6][12]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profitability**: In FY26H1, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 35.7%, with a net profit of 520 million RMB, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 54.3% [5]. - **Segment Performance**: The live performance and technology segment generated 1.339 billion RMB in revenue, up 14.5% year-over-year, while the IP derivatives segment saw a remarkable 105.2% increase in revenue, reaching 1.16 billion RMB [6][7]. - **Cost Management**: The company has effectively reduced both sales and management expenses, leading to improved operational efficiency [10]. Future Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 8.107 billion RMB in FY2026, with a net profit forecast of 996 million RMB, indicating a significant growth trajectory [11][12]. - The expected growth rates for revenue and net profit are 21% and 174% respectively for FY2026, showcasing strong financial health and operational performance [12][13].

Group 1: Bond Market Insights - The bond market has shown overall stability with slight tightening of funds, characterized by major banks continuing to buy short-term bonds, indicating a stable outlook for short-term rates [4][5]. - Securities firms have begun to close positions on government bonds, with borrowing volumes at a low point, suggesting a cautious approach as the year-end approaches [4][5]. - Public funds are primarily investing in credit bonds, although the volume has decreased, indicating a preference for short-term investments [4][5]. Group 2: Semiconductor Material Substitution Opportunities - The tension in Sino-Japanese relations is expected to accelerate the domestic substitution of Japanese semiconductor materials, as Japan holds a significant market share while domestic production rates are low [6][8]. - Key sectors for potential investment include photoresists, wet electronic chemicals, electronic gases, masks, CMP polishing liquids, and sputtering targets, with specific companies identified for each category [8][9]. Group 3: Chemical Industry Outlook - The Chinese chemical industry is poised for a revaluation due to the anticipated slowdown in global capacity expansion, which could enhance cash flow and dividend yields for leading companies [9][10]. - The chromium salt industry is experiencing a value reassessment driven by increased demand from AI data centers and commercial aircraft engines, with significant price increases noted [9][10]. - Key opportunities in the chemical sector include low-cost expansion, improved industry conditions, new materials, and high dividend yields from state-owned enterprises [10][11][12]. Group 4: AI Computing and Infrastructure - Major cloud service providers (CSPs) are increasing capital expenditures significantly for AI infrastructure, with Google raising its 2025 capital expenditure guidance to $91-93 billion [36][37]. - OpenAI has secured substantial computing power agreements with major chip manufacturers, indicating a strong demand for AI capabilities [37][38]. - The trend towards "super nodes" in AI infrastructure is gaining consensus, with various companies announcing advancements in their super node products [39][40]. Group 5: Tencent Music Performance - Tencent Music reported a 20.6% year-over-year increase in revenue for Q3 2025, driven by an increase in ARPPU, which boosted online music subscription income [52][53]. - The company achieved a significant increase in non-subscription revenue, particularly from live performances and artist-related products, indicating diversification in income sources [54][55]. - Future revenue projections suggest continued growth, with expectations for revenue to reach approximately 329.79 billion yuan by 2025 [55].

Report Overview - The report is the Bond Research Weekly released on November 17, 2025, analyzing the sentiment changes of bond market sellers and buyers in the latest week [1][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - From November 11th to 17th, the bond market seller sentiment continued to decline, and the buyer sentiment remained negative. The divergence of seller views slightly increased. The bond market was in a policy vacuum period, and the driving force of positive factors was insufficient. After the release of the third - quarter monetary policy report, the market's expectation of the interest - rate cut time was postponed, and the sentiment entered a wait - and - see period [4] Summary by Directory 1. Seller Market Sentiment 1.1 Seller Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 11th to 17th, the unweighted tracking index was 0.38, a decrease of 0.11 compared with November 4th - 10th. The proportion of bullish views decreased. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - bullish views: 2 are bullish, 5 are moderately bullish, and 17 are neutral. 8% of institutions are bullish, citing weak financial data, continuous decline in social financing growth, declining bank liability costs, and the continuation of the asset shortage pattern. 21% are moderately bullish, based on expectations of monetary policy easing, the central bank's restart of treasury bond trading, potential decline in risk appetite, and downward space for yields. 71% are neutral, as the market is temporarily in a "policy vacuum period", lacking a clear single main line to drive interest - rate breakthroughs, and institutions may take profit, while the year - end rush - to - buy demand of banks and insurance may support the market [11] 1.2 Buyer Market Interest - Rate Bond Sentiment Index - From November 11th to 17th, the unweighted tracking sentiment index was - 0.03, up from November 4th - 10th. Currently, institutions generally hold neutral - bearish views: 4 are moderately bullish, 20 are neutral, and 5 are bearish. 14% of institutions are moderately bullish, due to warming market sentiment, sensitivity to positive factors, insensitivity to negative factors, and the brewing of a bullish consensus. 69% are neutral, because of policy uncertainty, institutional behavior disturbances, and the market entering a wait - and - see period. 17% are bearish, citing the narrowing of monetary policy space, rising risk appetite, exhaustion of positive factors, increasing negative disturbances, and cautious institutional behavior [12][13]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the computer industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing consensus on supernodes as a foundational infrastructure for AI, driven by significant capital expenditures from major cloud service providers (CSPs) and advancements in GPU/ASIC technologies [5][8] - OpenAI has secured substantial power agreements totaling over $1 trillion, indicating a robust demand for AI computing power [5][14] - The report emphasizes the growth potential in various segments including servers, liquid cooling, power supply, and storage, with clear growth momentum identified [7][8] Summary by Sections Demand Side - CSPs are raising their capital expenditure forecasts, with Google increasing its 2025 capex to $91-93 billion, Meta to $70-72 billion, and Amazon to $125 billion, primarily for AI infrastructure [5][29] - OpenAI has signed significant power agreements with NVIDIA, AMD, and Broadcom, totaling 26GW and over $1.1 trillion in value [5][15] - Sovereign AI investments are projected to reach $1 trillion over the next five years, with major projects in the US, EU, and Saudi Arabia [5][25] Supply Side - The report notes the continuous iteration of chips, with supernodes becoming a consensus in AI infrastructure, as evidenced by new product launches from various manufacturers [34][5] - NVIDIA's upcoming GPU architectures are expected to enhance computational capabilities significantly, with the Blackwell Ultra and Rubin architectures set to launch in the coming years [36][39] - Major companies like AMD and Huawei are also advancing their AI chip offerings, with AMD's Helios solution and Huawei's Atlas series expected to drive further innovation [41][44] Growth Segments - The server market is experiencing substantial growth, with companies like Hon Hai and Wistron achieving significant increases in AI server shipments [7] - Liquid cooling technology is becoming essential in AI data centers, with companies reporting high double-digit revenue growth [7] - The storage chip industry is entering a period of severe shortage, driving up DRAM prices and increasing demand from CSPs [7] Multi-modal and Application Ecosystem - The report outlines the rapid evolution of AI models, with major updates from OpenAI and Alibaba, and a significant increase in token usage across platforms [7][8] - OpenAI's new applications and models are enhancing its ecosystem, with a notable increase in daily token usage [7][8]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Tencent Music-SW (01698) [1] Core Insights - The increase in ARPPU has driven subscription revenue growth, while non-subscription business has achieved breakthroughs [2][6] - For Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 20.6%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.15 billion yuan, up 36% year-over-year [6][11] Financial Performance - Q3 2025 revenue of 8.46 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 20.6% and a quarter-over-quarter growth of 0.2% [6] - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 2.15 billion yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 36% [6] - Non-GAAP net profit was 2.48 billion yuan, up 28% year-over-year [6] - Operating costs increased by 18.8% year-over-year, primarily due to rising costs in offline performances, IP-related expenses, and advertising agency fees [6] - Gross margin stood at 43.5%, with a year-over-year increase of 0.9 percentage points [6] Business Segmentation - Online music service revenue for Q3 2025 was 6.97 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 27.2% [7] - Subscription revenue within online music reached 4.5 billion yuan, up 17.2% year-over-year [7] - Non-subscription revenue surged to 2.47 billion yuan, a year-over-year increase of 50.6% [7] User Metrics - The number of paid users reached 126 million, a year-over-year increase of 6% [7] - The ARPPU for Q3 2025 was 11.9 yuan, reflecting a year-over-year increase of 10% [7] Future Projections - Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 32.98 billion yuan, 36.86 billion yuan, and 40.73 billion yuan respectively [11] - Projected net profit for the same period is 11.13 billion yuan, 9.84 billion yuan, and 11.16 billion yuan respectively [11] - The report anticipates continued growth driven by an increase in paid users and ARPPU, alongside strong performance in non-subscription business [11]