BAIRUN CORPORATION(002568) 中国银河·2024-08-01 02:00Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Recommended" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The existing business shows resilience, and future development has potential highlights. The company's pre-mixed cocktail products demonstrate consumer resilience, with Q2 2024 performance meeting expectations. The pre-mixed cocktail business achieved revenue of 720 million yuan in Q2 2024, down 7.6% year-on-year, but has stabilized at 710-720 million yuan over the past four quarters, indicating strong consumer resilience [1] - The company has maintained a good profit level, with a net profit margin of 28.2% in Q2 2024, which is flat year-on-year, benefiting from a good gross margin performance and controllable sales expenses. The company is expected to maintain decent profitability in the second half of the year [1] - The whiskey product is nearing its market launch, with the first batch of whiskey barrels filled in October 2021, and the company’s self-made semi-finished product value reaching 740 million yuan by the end of Q2 2024, indicating steady growth [1] Financial Summary - For the first half of 2024, the company achieved revenue of 1.63 billion yuan, down 1.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 402 million yuan, down 8.4% year-on-year. The revenue for Q2 2024 was 830 million yuan, down 7.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 230 million yuan, also down 7.3% year-on-year [1] - The company’s revenue forecast for 2024-2026 is as follows: 2024E revenue is projected at 3.44 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 5.28%, and 2025E revenue at 3.97 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 15.50% [2][3] - The diluted EPS for 2024E is projected at 0.82 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 21.69, and for 2025E, the EPS is projected at 0.98 yuan, with a P/E ratio of 18.26 [2][3]