食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 06 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒持续探底，新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《"禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板 块底部机会—行业周报》-2025.6.22 《5 月社零增速稳步上行，内需动力进 一步修复—行业点评报告》-2025.6.17 白酒承压待布局，魔芋赛道涌生机 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：白酒探底迎配置，关注魔芋扩容机会 6 月 30 日-7 月 4 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.6%，一级子行业排名第 19，跑输沪 深 300 约 0.9pct，子行业中肉制品（+1.2%）、白酒（+1.2%）、烘焙食品（+0.9%） 表现相对领先。前期白酒批价走弱，一方面是受到电商 618 补贴影响，另一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in sentiment due to fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai, with leading companies actively exploring new consumption scenarios and demographics [2][13] - The health products, soft drinks, and snacks sectors are viewed positively due to high growth potential, low base effects, and upcoming peak seasons [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.88% from June 23 to June 27, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [1][22] - Specific sector performances included health products (+3.65%), baked goods (+2.72%), and soft drinks (-0.58%) [1][22] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector declined by 1.66%, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai [2][13] - Current prices for 25-year Moutai (original/scattered) are 1870 RMB/1800 RMB, down by 80 RMB/100 RMB from the previous week [2][13] - The Shunwan white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18X, which is considered low compared to the historical average [2][13] Health Products and Snacks - The health products sector is experiencing a growth trend, with a 3.65% increase this week, driven by new consumption trends [20] - The snack sector is expected to benefit from low base effects and new product launches, with companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish being highlighted [17][21] Soft Drinks and Beer - The soft drink sector saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with notable performances from brands like Master Kong (+5.4%) and Nongfu Spring (+5.3%) [4][15] - The beer sector declined by 1.9%, but there is optimism for recovery with upcoming consumption policies [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on strong alpha companies in the liquor sector such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from market consolidation [4][21] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies are recommended, including Li Gao Foods and Nongfu Spring [4][21]

Group 1 - The company Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. issued 11.28 million convertible bonds with a total amount of 1.128 billion yuan, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][2] - The initial conversion price of the "Bairun Convertible Bonds" was set at 66.89 yuan per share, which has undergone several adjustments over time [2][4] - As of June 30, 2025, the remaining convertible bonds amounted to 11,275,109 units, with a total value of 1,127,510,900 yuan [2][5] Group 2 - The conversion price of the "Bairun Convertible Bonds" has been adjusted multiple times, with the latest adjustment setting it at 46.66 yuan per share effective from June 5, 2025 [2][4] - The total share capital of the company remains at 1,049,368,955 shares, with the changes attributed to the lock-up of shares by directors and supervisors [5][6] - The conversion period for the convertible bonds is from April 12, 2022, to September 28, 2027 [4][6]

| 证券代码：002568 | 证券简称：百润股份 | 公告编号：2025-028 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127046 | 债券简称：百润转债 | | 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 百润转债2025年第二季度转股情况公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 一、可转换公司债券发行上市概况 （一）可转换公司债券发行情况 "百润转债"的初始转股价格为66.89元/股。 1 ● 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 ● 债券代码：127046 证券简称：百润转债 ● 转股价格：46.66元/股 ● 转股期起止日期：2022年4月12日至2027年9月28日 2022年1月24日，公司2021年限制性股票激励计划新增股份上市，根据公司 可转换公司债券转股价格调整的相关条款，"百润转债"转股价格调整为66.83元 /股，调整后的转股价格自2022年1月24日起生效。 2022年6月16日，公司2021年度权益分派实施完成，根据公司可转换公司债 券转股价格调整的相关条款，"百润转债"转股价格调整为47. ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on bottom opportunities in the liquor sector while pursuing growth in consumer goods. The liquor industry is currently experiencing a downturn, particularly in high-end consumption scenarios, leading to a decline in demand. The report suggests that leading liquor companies with strong brands and distribution channels are likely to adapt and transform successfully [3][11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - From June 23 to June 27, the food and beverage index declined by 0.9%, ranking 28th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.8 percentage points. The health products (+3.6%), baked goods (+2.7%), and seasoning and fermentation products (+1.2%) sectors performed relatively well [11][13] Market Performance - The liquor sector remains at a low point, with the impact of the "ban on alcohol" still felt. The lack of high-end consumption scenarios has further depressed industry demand. The report anticipates increased pressure on liquor companies' performance in the second quarter due to sluggish terminal sales and high channel inventory levels [3][11][12] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, which may alleviate cost pressures for companies in the beverage sector. For instance, the price of imported barley fell by 4.3% year-on-year in May 2025, and the quantity imported dropped by 47.8% [31][33] Recommended Companies - The report recommends gradually increasing positions in liquor stocks at low valuations, particularly focusing on leading companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu. It also highlights opportunities in consumer goods companies like Ximai Food, Youyou Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Shares, which are expected to benefit from new consumption trends [4][12][46]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Recommended" rating to the company with a target price of 30 yuan, based on a projected market value of 310 billion yuan [2][7]. Core Viewpoints - The company is positioned as a leader in the ready-to-drink (RTD) beverage sector and is accelerating its entry into the whiskey market, aiming to establish itself as a benchmark in the industry and create a second growth curve [5][12]. - The whiskey segment is identified as a potential growth area, with a market size estimated to exceed 150 billion yuan, given the current low penetration of whiskey in China's liquor consumption [5][8]. - The company has a strong production capacity and a commitment to consumer education, which are seen as key advantages in capturing market share in the whiskey category [5][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, founded in 1997, initially focused on flavor production and has since become a leader in the RTD market with a revenue share of approximately 90% from RTD beverages [12][13]. - It has strategically entered the whiskey market, launching brands "Lai Zhou" and "Bailide" in 2024, with plans for further expansion [12]. RTD Beverages - The RTD beverage market is characterized by a "pulse penetration" pattern, with significant growth potential despite current competitive pressures [25][33]. - The company holds a market share of about 72.5% in the RTD sector, benefiting from strong brand recognition and effective marketing strategies [39][41]. - The RTD segment is expected to stabilize and grow, supported by new product launches and improved marketing operations [5][6]. Whiskey Market - The whiskey market in China is currently underdeveloped, with only 0.5% of the liquor consumption, indicating substantial growth potential [5][8]. - The company has established a unique large-scale blending whiskey production capacity, with an annual output of 26,000 tons of grain whiskey, and a significant inventory of barrels [5][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of flavor innovation and consumer education in driving the growth of domestic whiskey brands [5][8]. Financial Projections - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 3,048 million yuan in 2024, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 14% expected through 2026 [6]. - Net profit forecasts for the company are 719 million yuan in 2024, increasing to 1,122 million yuan by 2027, reflecting a strong growth trajectory [6][7].

上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 2025 年跟踪评级报告 1 www.lhratings.com 联合〔2025〕4407 号 联合资信评估股份有限公司通过对上海百润投资控股集团股份 有限公司主体及其相关债券的信用状况进行跟踪分析和评估，确定 维持上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司主体长期信用等级为 AA， 维持"百润转债"信用等级为 AA，评级展望为稳定。 特此公告 联合资信评估股份有限公司 评级总监： 二〇二五年六月二十七日 二、本报告系联合资信接受上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司（以下 简称"该公司"）委托所出具，除因本次评级事项联合资信与该公司构成评 级委托关系外，联合资信、评级人员与该公司不存在任何影响评级行为独立、 客观、公正的关联关系。 三、本报告引用的资料主要由该公司或第三方相关主体提供，联合资信 履行了必要的尽职调查义务，但对引用资料的真实性、准确性和完整性不作 任何保证。联合资信合理采信其他专业机构出具的专业意见，但联合资信不 对专业机构出具的专业意见承担任何责任。 四、本次跟踪评级结果自本报告出具之日起至相应债券到期兑付日有 效；根据跟踪评级的结论，在有效期内评级结果有可能发生变化。联合 ...

证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 债券代码：127046 债券简称：百润转债 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 公开发行可转换公司债券 受托管理事务报告 （2024 年度） 债券受托管理人 （住所：贵州省贵阳市云岩区中华北路 216 号） 二〇二五年六月 1 重要声明 本报告依据《公司债券发行与交易管理办法》（以下简称"《管理办法》"）、 《上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司与华创证券有限责任公司关于上海百润 投资控股集团股份有限公司公开发行可转换公司债券之债券受托管理协议》（以 下简称"《受托管理协议》"）、《上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司公开发 行可转换公司债券募集说明书》（以下简称"《募集说明书》"）、《上海百润 投资控股集团股份有限公司 2024 年年度报告》等相关公开信息披露文件、第三 方中介机构出具的专业意见等，由本期债券受托管理人华创证券有限责任公司 （以下简称"华创证券"）编制。华创证券对本报告中所包含的从上述文件中引 述内容和信息未进行独立验证，也不就该等引述内容和信息的真实性、准确性和 完整性做出任何保证或承担任何责任。 本报告不构成对投资者进行或不进行某项行为的推荐意见，投资者 ...

事件：6 月19 日，崃州蒸馏厂"以至繁致风味"新品发布会直播圆满落幕，发布5 款威士忌新品。 公司产能、风味储备和研发经验稳坐中国威士忌龙头地位，有望持续强化先发优势带来的头部效应。6 月15 日，崃州蒸馏厂正式完成第50 万只陈酿桶灌注，计划在未来4-5 年内实现100 万桶原酒储量目标， 持续强化公司产能优势壁垒。至24 年底，崃州蒸馏厂原酒储量和年产能均占到国内威士忌总量的 80%。公司储备了包括中国黄酒桶、中国蒙古栎桶、中国加烈葡萄酒桶等本土桶在内的50 余种橡木桶 型，为风味创新和多桶工艺探索提供基础，参考公司在预调酒赛道已储备了较深的本土风味改进经验， 威士忌领域有望再次复制先发优势带来的头部效应，关注预调酒企稳+威士忌打开新空间下后续增长动 力。 盈利预测与投资建议：我们预计公司25-26 年实现营业收入33.91/39.53亿元，同比+11.2%/+16.6%，预计 实现归母净利润8.10/9.97 亿元，同比+12.6%/+23.0%，维持"推荐"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济下行风险；行业竞争加剧风险；新品推广不及预期等。 崃州发布5 款新品，第二增长曲线逐步清晰。本次发布5 款单一麦芽威士 ...