公 华福证券 司 研 究 百润股份（002568.SZ） 酒类主业承压调整，期待威士忌成长放量 公 司 财 事件：公司发布 2025 年半年报，上半年公司实现营业收入 14.89 亿元，同 比-8.56%；实现归母净利润 3.89 亿元，同比-3.32%；实现扣非归母净利润 3.56 亿元，同比-9.04%；经营活动现金流净额 4.91 亿元，同比增长 67.06%。 其中 Q2 单季度实现营收 7.52 亿元，同比-8.98%；归母净利润 2.08 亿元， 同比-10.85%，扣非归母净利润 1.78 亿元，同比-22.61%。 报 点 评 酒类主业仍处调整期，线下渠道需求阶段性承压。分产品看，25H1 公 司酒类产品板块主营业务收入 12.97 亿元，同比-9.35%；香精业务收入 1.69 亿元，同比-3.91%。分渠道看，25H1 公司线下渠道收入 13.11 亿元，同比 -9.63%；数字零售渠道收入 1.55 亿元，同比-0.57%。公司期末经销商数量 合计 2268 家，较期初净增 200 家，渠道深度广度稳步提升。 Q2 毛利率小幅下行，整体盈利能力维持稳健。2025Q2 公司实现毛利 率 7 ...

百润股份今年以来股价跌0.52%，近5个交易日跌3.30%，近20日涨13.60%，近60日跌2.34%。 资料显示，上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司位于上海市康桥工业区康桥东路558号，成立日期1997 年6月19日，上市日期2011年3月25日，公司主营业务涉及香精香料产品研发、生产和销售;预调鸡尾酒 业务。主营业务收入构成为：酒类产品87.14%，食用香精11.34%，其他1.52%。 百润股份所属申万行业为：食品饮料-非白酒-其他酒类。所属概念板块包括：电子商务、社保重仓、融 资融券、养老金概念、中盘等。 9月1日，百润股份盘中下跌2.03%，截至14:05，报27.57元/股，成交2.54亿元，换手率1.26%，总市值 289.31亿元。 资金流向方面，主力资金净流出1259.03万元，特大单买入259.49万元，占比1.02%，卖出792.37万元， 占比3.12%；大单买入4405.65万元，占比17.36%，卖出5131.80万元，占比20.23%。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年6月30日，百润股份十大流通股东中，兴全合润混合A（163406）位居第七 大流通股东，持股1241.06万股，为新 ...

证券分析师 证券研究报告 食品饮料 | 非白酒 非金融|公司点评报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 09 月 01 日 张东雪 SAC：S1350525060001 zhangdongxue@huayuanstock.com 林若尧 SAC：S1350525070002 linruoyao@huayuanstock.com 市场表现： | 基本数据 | 年 | 08 | 月 29 日 | | | 2025 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | | | 28.14 | | | | | | 一 年 内 高 最 | | | 31.70/15.73 | 最 | / | | 低 | | （元） | | | | | | | | | 总市值（百万元） | | | 29,529.24 | | | | | | 流通市值（百万元） | | | 20,338.42 | | | | | | 总股本（百万股） | | | 1,049.37 | | | | | | 资产负债率（%） | | | 42.77 | | | | | | 每股净 ...

事件: 盈利预测和投资评级：公司预调酒业务和威士忌业务双轮驱动，未来发展前景广阔。公司通过扎实推进 产品、渠道和品牌建设，促进品类持续推广和渗透。考虑到宏观需求承压，我们下调公司盈利预测，预 计2025-2027 年公司营业收入分别为31.33/35.20/41.06 亿元，同比分别+3%/+12%/+17%；归母净利润分 别为7.47/8.41/9.81 亿元，同比分别+4%/+13%/+17%，EPS 分别为0.71/0.80/0.93 元，对应PE 分别为 40/35/30 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：1）宏观需求疲软；2）动销不及预期；3）原材料价格上涨过快；4）产能投放不及预期； 5）业务集中度较高风险；6）食品安全风险等。 2025 年8 月26 日，百润股份发布2025 年中报。2025H1 公司实现营收14.89 亿元，同比-8.56%；归母净 利润3.89 亿元，同比-3.32%；归母净利率26.13%，同比+1.41pct；基本EPS 0.38 元。2025Q2 公司实现营 收7.52 亿元，同比-8.98%；归母净利润2.08 亿元，同比-10.85%；归母净利率27.62%，同比 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 08 月 31 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 48% 2024-09 2025-01 2025-05 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒中报加速出清，大众品优先成 长性—行业周报》-2025.8.24 《进入业绩披露期，关注绩优股表现 —行业周报》-2025.8.17 《白酒预期回归，新消费重获青睐— 行业周报》-2025.8.10 中报承压下微光渐显，业绩分化中孕育新机 ——行业周报 | 张宇光（分析师） | 张思敏（分析师） | | --- | --- | | zhangyuguang@kysec.cn | zhangsimin@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790520030003 | 证书编号：S0790525080001 | zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790525080001 推荐组合：贵州茅台、山西汾酒、西麦食品、万辰集团、百润股份 （1）贵州茅台：短期白酒需求下移，但公司将深化改革进程，以更加务实的姿 态，强调未来可持续发展。公司分红率提升，此轮周期后茅台可看得 ...

Key Insights - The report highlights the significant growth in the nutritional products sector, with New Hope Liuhe (002001.SZ) achieving a revenue of 11.101 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12.76%, and a net profit of 3.603 billion yuan, up 63.46% [10] - The report emphasizes the robust performance of the amino acid market, particularly methionine, with prices rising to 22,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 12.98% [11] - The report notes the steady performance of the vitamin A and E segments, with revenue of 2.085 billion yuan and a net profit of 1.209 billion yuan, maintaining a net profit margin of 58% despite recent price declines [12] Company Analysis - New Hope Liuhe's nutritional products segment accounted for 64.86% of total revenue, with a gross margin of 47.79%, an increase of 11.93 percentage points year-on-year [10] - The company has expanded its methionine production capacity to 460,000 tons per year, positioning it as the third-largest producer globally [11] - The vitamin segment's revenue is expected to remain stable, with recent price adjustments indicating limited further declines [12] Industry Trends - The real estate sector is experiencing a downturn, with a 6.5% year-on-year decline in sales volume and a 4.0% decrease in sales area as of July 2025 [22] - The average price of new residential properties has decreased by 2.6% year-on-year, indicating ongoing pressure in the housing market [23] - Recent policy relaxations in major cities like Beijing and Shanghai are expected to provide some support to the real estate market, although the overall outlook remains cautious [24] Financial Performance - The report indicates that Beike-W (02423.HK) achieved a revenue of 26 billion yuan in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11%, although net profit declined by 32% [28] - Yuexiu Property (00123.HK) reported a revenue of 47.6 billion yuan, a 34.6% increase, but a net profit decline of 25.2% due to lower gross margins [31] - Zhou Dasheng (002867.SZ) experienced a 43.29% drop in revenue to 4.597 billion yuan, while net profit remained relatively stable, reflecting a 1.27% decline [32] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the non-bank financial sector is poised for growth, driven by a shift in deposit behaviors and increased demand for risk assets [25] - The overall market is in a recovery phase, with expectations of a gradual improvement in economic conditions and investment opportunities in various sectors [26] - The report maintains a positive outlook for companies with strong fundamentals and innovative product offerings, particularly in the nutritional and financial sectors [13][26]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company experienced pressure on performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue of 1.49 billion yuan, down 8.6% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 390 million yuan, down 3.3% year-on-year. The second quarter saw revenue of 750 million yuan, down 9.0% year-on-year, and a net profit of 210 million yuan, down 10.9% year-on-year. The performance aligns with expectations. The company has proactively adjusted its channel development strategy for ready-to-drink beverages, leading to a slight downward revision of profit forecasts for 2025-2027. Expected net profits for 2025-2027 are 790 million yuan (-40 million), 900 million yuan (-60 million), and 1.03 billion yuan (-60 million), representing year-on-year growth of 10.3%, 13.4%, and 14.4% respectively. The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 37.0, 32.6, and 28.5 for the respective years [4][5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In the first half of 2025, the company's liquor product revenue was 1.3 billion yuan, down 9.4% year-on-year. The fluctuation in ready-to-drink beverages was due to proactive adjustments, including channel optimization and credit contraction, which reduced channel inventory significantly, leading to healthier and more stable development. The second half is expected to see improvements with the stabilization of the 358 series and the full rollout of new products [5][6] - The online retail channel revenue remained stable at 150 million yuan, down 0.6% year-on-year, while offline channel revenue was 1.31 billion yuan, down 9.6% year-on-year, primarily due to the company's proactive adjustments. Revenue in different regions showed varied performance, with significant declines in North and West China [6][7] Profitability and Cost Analysis - The gross margin in Q2 2025 slightly decreased by 0.79 percentage points to 71.00%, mainly due to product mix adjustments and commercial discounts. The management expense ratio increased significantly, primarily due to rising salary and depreciation costs. Consequently, the net profit margin in Q2 decreased by 0.42 percentage points to 27.63% [7][8] Financial Projections - The financial summary indicates projected revenues of 3.237 billion yuan for 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 6.2%. The net profit attributable to shareholders is expected to be 793 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.3%. The gross margin is projected to be 69.9%, and the net margin is expected to be 24.5% [8][10]

每经AI快讯，百润股份（SZ 002568，收盘价：27.85元）发布公告称，2025年8月27日，百润股份接受 银河证券等投资者调研，公司董事、副总经理、财务负责人马良等人参与接待，并回答了投资者提出的 问题。 2025年1至6月份，百润股份的营业收入构成为：预调鸡尾酒占比87.14%，香精香料制造业占比 11.34%，其他业务占比1.52%。 截至发稿，百润股份市值为292亿元。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——世界首例基因编辑猪肺成功移植人体 对话主要参与者：距离临床应用还有 多远？ （记者 王晓波） ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Cautious Accumulate" [5][12] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.489 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8.56%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 356 million yuan, down 9.04% year-on-year [5] - Revenue from the pre-mixed drinks and flavoring segments both declined year-on-year, with pre-mixed drinks generating 1.297 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.35%, and flavoring generating 169 million yuan, a decrease of 3.91% [5] - The decline in revenue was primarily driven by offline channels, while online revenue for pre-mixed drinks remained relatively stable, with a slight decrease of 0.57% [5][6] - The company has experienced five consecutive quarters of negative revenue growth, with significant declines in the North and West China markets, while the South China market showed growth [5][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company achieved a gross margin of 70.33% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 0.25 percentage points year-on-year, mainly driven by the flavoring segment [5][6] - The sales expense ratio decreased significantly, primarily due to a reduction in advertising and storage costs, with the sales expense ratio down 4.18 percentage points to 20.21% [5] - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is 0.74 yuan, 0.85 yuan, and 0.92 yuan respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 37.97, 32.87, and 30.29 [5][9]

证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 投资者关系活动记录表 编号：2025-04-0827 | | ■特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 投资者关系活动 | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 类别 | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | | □现场参观 | | | □其他 （请文字说明其他活动内容） 银河证券 刘来珍；长江证券 冯萱 ；中金公司 宗旭豪 ； | | | 国金证券 陈宇君；瑞银证券 黄任悠；国海证券 刘洁铭 ； | | | 财通证券 吴文德；西部证券 田地 ；国泰海通 徐洋 ； | | 参与单位名称及 | 华西证券 寇星 ；兴业证券 汪润 ；中信证券 张晟 ； | | 人员姓名 | 财通证券 吴文德；国盛证券 陈熠 ；浙商证券 满静雅 ； | | | 中泰证券 何长天；华创证券 寸特彬；华安证券 韦香怡 ； | | | 华福证券 童杰 ；国信证券 杨苑 ；华源证券 林若尧 ； | | | 申万宏源 严泽楠；开源证券 张恒玮。 | | 时间 | 年 月 日 2025 8 27 15:00-16:30 | | 地点 | 公司会议室 | ...