食品饮料 ——行业点评报告 张宇光（分析师） 张恒玮（分析师） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 2025 年 07 月 16 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -19% -10% 0% 10% 19% 29% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒布局机会渐显，新消费择优长 期持有—行业周报》-2025.7.13 《白酒承压待布局，魔芋赛道涌生机 —行业周报》-2025.7.6 《白酒持续探底，新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 6 月社零增速环比放缓，内需消费仍待提振 zhanghengwei@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790122020008 投资建议：社零增长放缓，建议战略布局头部白酒企业 2025 年 6 月社零数据增速环比回落，主要与 618 活动错期、部分地区国补政策 控制以及可选消费和餐饮收入下滑有关。下半年关税和出口仍有不确定性，内需 相关政策或有可能择时推出，食品饮料板块有望受益。细分板块看，当前白酒预 期较低，连续回调后估值已在低位，同时基金持仓白酒比例连续回落，筹码结构 也相对较 ...

Group 1: Core Views - The report suggests that the food and beverage industry is expected to see a valuation recovery as market sentiment improves, with a focus on low-priced leading companies in the liquor sector and structural opportunities in the food sector [2][7][10]. Group 2: Liquor Sector - The liquor sector is experiencing a phase of demand decline due to seasonal factors and regulatory impacts, leading to pressure on high-end liquor prices, while mass consumption remains stable [7][13]. - Major companies like Moutai are expected to maintain their performance due to strong brand positioning, while others are entering an adjustment phase, with varying adjustment speeds among companies [7][14]. - Q2 performance forecasts for major liquor companies indicate a range of revenue and profit changes, with Moutai expected to see a 9% increase in both revenue and profit [14][15][16]. Group 3: Food Sector - The food sector shows signs of recovery, with segments like beverages, snacks, and pet food experiencing upward trends, while beer and restaurant supply chains face structural challenges [21][24]. - The beverage industry remains vibrant with new product launches and a clear trend towards reduced sugar options, while competition intensifies [24][30]. - Dairy products are seeing mixed performance, with some segments like low-temperature dairy and cheese growing, while others face challenges [24][33]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading liquor companies with a safety margin for investment, as well as food companies that are expected to exceed mid-year performance expectations [10][28]. - Specific companies highlighted for potential investment include Nongfu Spring, Uni-President China, and Tianwei Foods, among others [10][28].

2025 年 07 月 13 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 食品饮料 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒承压待布局，魔芋赛道涌生机 —行业周报》-2025.7.6 《白酒持续探底，新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《"禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板块 底部机会—行业周报》-2025.6.22 白酒布局机会渐显，新消费择优长期持有 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：战略布局头部酒企，坚守优质新消费标的 7 月 7 日-7 月 11 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.8%，一级子行业排名第 23，与沪深 300 基本持平，子行业中白酒（+1.4%）、保健品（+1.4%）、啤酒（+1.2%）表现 相对领先。本周食品饮料行情出现变化，新消费标的高位震荡；传统消费底部有 企稳迹象。本轮白酒行 ...

Group 1 - The core index of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index reported at 5488.14 points, showing a decline of 1.54% over the past month, an increase of 2.05% over the past three months, and a year-to-date increase of 3.77% [1] - The CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen industry index series categorizes the CSI 500, CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Composite, and CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Composite Index into 11 industries to reflect the overall performance of different industry companies [1] - The top ten holdings of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index include Meihua Biological (2.53%), Zhengbang Technology (2.43%), Yanjing Beer (2.2%), Anjii Food (1.83%), Maogeping (1.79%), Hengan International (1.76%), Dabeinong (1.66%), Dekang Animal Husbandry (1.64%), First Pacific (1.57%), and Bairun Co. (1.55%) [1] Group 2 - The market share of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings is 41.28% from Shanghai Stock Exchange, 41.17% from Shenzhen Stock Exchange, and 17.55% from Hong Kong Stock Exchange [2] - The industry composition of the CSI Hong Kong-Shanghai-Shenzhen Connect Small Cap Consumer Index holdings shows that food accounts for 32.70%, breeding for 20.94%, liquor for 17.06%, planting for 8.99%, beauty care for 6.79%, soft drinks for 6.78%, and household goods for 6.75% [2] - The index sample is adjusted every six months, with adjustments implemented on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [2]

出品：新浪财经上市公司研究院 作者：浪头饮食/ 郝显 百润股份的威士忌产品终于进入铺货阶段！ 2024年百润股份核心收入来源的预调鸡尾酒下滑超过7%，而根据券商研报信息，四季度预调鸡尾酒营 收同比减少19.5%。 2021年9月，百润股份通过发行可转债再次募资11.28亿元，主要用于麦芽威士忌陈酿熟成项目，其产成 品为威士忌原酒，用于生产中高档国产威士忌产品酒，该项目预计将增加3.38万千升的威士忌原酒产 能。 从公开信息来看，截至2024年底，百润股份烈酒（威士忌）陈酿熟成项目投资进度达到73.09%，麦芽 威士忌陈酿熟成项目投资进度则达到85.46%。 2023 年全球威士忌销售金额为1440.66 亿美元，是全球第一大烈酒品类。其中中国市场威士忌销售金额 21.69 亿美元，同比增长11.5%。和白酒相比，国内威士忌市场规模较小，但是增速较快。 威士忌上市 百润股份能否复制预调鸡尾酒的成功？ 从时间线来看，2024年11月，百润股份推出两款创世版威士忌产品。2025 年3月正式推出"百利得"单一 调和威士忌 22 和 66，6月公司旗下崃州蒸馏厂发布了5款单一麦芽威士忌新品，至此崃州与百利得两大 威士忌 ...

食品饮料 2025 年 07 月 06 日 投资评级：看好（维持） 行业走势图 数据来源：聚源 -24% -12% 0% 12% 24% 36% 2024-07 2024-11 2025-03 食品饮料 沪深300 相关研究报告 《白酒持续探底，新消费标的值得重 视—行业周报》-2025.6.29 《"禁酒令"纠偏催化反弹，重视板 块底部机会—行业周报》-2025.6.22 《5 月社零增速稳步上行，内需动力进 一步修复—行业点评报告》-2025.6.17 白酒承压待布局，魔芋赛道涌生机 ——行业周报 张宇光（分析师） 张思敏（联系人） zhangyuguang@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790520030003 zhangsimin@kysec.cn 证书编号：S0790123070080 核心观点：白酒探底迎配置，关注魔芋扩容机会 6 月 30 日-7 月 4 日，食品饮料指数涨幅为 0.6%，一级子行业排名第 19，跑输沪 深 300 约 0.9pct，子行业中肉制品（+1.2%）、白酒（+1.2%）、烘焙食品（+0.9%） 表现相对领先。前期白酒批价走弱，一方面是受到电商 618 补贴影响，另一 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious outlook on the liquor industry, suggesting a bottoming opportunity for investment in high-end liquor brands and potential cyclical recovery in beer and yellow wine sectors [2][11][12]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing pressure on sales due to external risks and a need for demand improvement, with expectations for the price of original box Feitian Moutai to stabilize around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The beer industry is showing signs of stabilization with a recovery in dining demand and potential for high-frequency sales tracking, suggesting a favorable outlook for the upcoming peak season [3][12]. - The yellow wine sector is witnessing a trend towards premiumization and market promotion efforts by leading brands, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [3][13]. - The snack food industry remains robust, driven by channel expansion and new product penetration, with expectations for continued high growth in Q2 [3][12]. - The soft drink sector is seeing demand improvement driven by health-oriented and functional beverages, with a positive outlook for brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring [4][14]. - The seasoning industry is stabilizing at a low point, with growth relying on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant sector [5][15]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry - Feitian Moutai's original box price is stable between 1900-1950 RMB, with expectations for a price stabilization around 2000 RMB [2][11]. - The industry is under pressure, but the market's expectations for short-term performance have been adequately priced in, suggesting a potential for recovery [12]. Beer Industry - The beer sector is expected to stabilize with a recovery in dining demand and increased focus on non-drinking channels [3][12]. - The industry is positioned for a favorable performance in the upcoming peak season, with anticipated steady mid-year earnings [3][12]. Yellow Wine Industry - The trend towards premiumization is becoming a consensus among leading brands, with increased marketing efforts and a focus on younger consumers [3][13]. Snack Food Industry - The snack food sector is maintaining high growth due to channel expansion and new product introductions, with Q2 performance expected to continue the positive trend [3][12]. Soft Drink Industry - The soft drink market is improving, driven by health and functional beverages, with brands like Dongpeng Beverage and Nongfu Spring expected to perform well [4][14]. Seasoning Industry - The seasoning sector is stabilizing, with growth dependent on structural upgrades and increased demand from the restaurant industry [5][15].

Investment Rating - Industry rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [6] Core Views - The liquor sector is experiencing a decline in sentiment due to fluctuations in the price of Feitian Moutai, with leading companies actively exploring new consumption scenarios and demographics [2][13] - The health products, soft drinks, and snacks sectors are viewed positively due to high growth potential, low base effects, and upcoming peak seasons [4][15] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - The food and beverage sector saw a decline of 0.88% from June 23 to June 27, while the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.95% [1][22] - Specific sector performances included health products (+3.65%), baked goods (+2.72%), and soft drinks (-0.58%) [1][22] Liquor Sector Insights - The white liquor sector declined by 1.66%, attributed to seasonal demand weakness and price fluctuations of high-end products like Feitian Moutai [2][13] - Current prices for 25-year Moutai (original/scattered) are 1870 RMB/1800 RMB, down by 80 RMB/100 RMB from the previous week [2][13] - The Shunwan white liquor index PE-TTM is at 18X, which is considered low compared to the historical average [2][13] Health Products and Snacks - The health products sector is experiencing a growth trend, with a 3.65% increase this week, driven by new consumption trends [20] - The snack sector is expected to benefit from low base effects and new product launches, with companies like Three Squirrels and Salted Fish being highlighted [17][21] Soft Drinks and Beer - The soft drink sector saw a slight decline of 0.6%, with notable performances from brands like Master Kong (+5.4%) and Nongfu Spring (+5.3%) [4][15] - The beer sector declined by 1.9%, but there is optimism for recovery with upcoming consumption policies [4][15] Investment Recommendations - Focus on strong alpha companies in the liquor sector such as Shanxi Fenjiu and Guizhou Moutai, which are expected to benefit from market consolidation [4][21] - In the consumer goods sector, companies that align with cost reduction and market share growth strategies are recommended, including Li Gao Foods and Nongfu Spring [4][21]

Group 1 - The company Shanghai Bairun Investment Holding Group Co., Ltd. issued 11.28 million convertible bonds with a total amount of 1.128 billion yuan, approved by the China Securities Regulatory Commission [1][2] - The initial conversion price of the "Bairun Convertible Bonds" was set at 66.89 yuan per share, which has undergone several adjustments over time [2][4] - As of June 30, 2025, the remaining convertible bonds amounted to 11,275,109 units, with a total value of 1,127,510,900 yuan [2][5] Group 2 - The conversion price of the "Bairun Convertible Bonds" has been adjusted multiple times, with the latest adjustment setting it at 46.66 yuan per share effective from June 5, 2025 [2][4] - The total share capital of the company remains at 1,049,368,955 shares, with the changes attributed to the lock-up of shares by directors and supervisors [5][6] - The conversion period for the convertible bonds is from April 12, 2022, to September 28, 2027 [4][6]

| 证券代码：002568 | 证券简称：百润股份 | 公告编号：2025-028 | | --- | --- | --- | | 债券代码：127046 | 债券简称：百润转债 | | 上海百润投资控股集团股份有限公司 百润转债2025年第二季度转股情况公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚 假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 特别提示： 一、可转换公司债券发行上市概况 （一）可转换公司债券发行情况 "百润转债"的初始转股价格为66.89元/股。 1 ● 证券代码：002568 证券简称：百润股份 ● 债券代码：127046 证券简称：百润转债 ● 转股价格：46.66元/股 ● 转股期起止日期：2022年4月12日至2027年9月28日 2022年1月24日，公司2021年限制性股票激励计划新增股份上市，根据公司 可转换公司债券转股价格调整的相关条款，"百润转债"转股价格调整为66.83元 /股，调整后的转股价格自2022年1月24日起生效。 2022年6月16日，公司2021年度权益分派实施完成，根据公司可转换公司债 券转股价格调整的相关条款，"百润转债"转股价格调整为47. ...