大类资产每月观察

Economic Overview - The US July Markit Manufacturing PMI fell below the expansion threshold, while Q2 GDP showed unexpected resilience, leading to a rebound in US Treasury yields and a tightening of financial conditions[3] - Domestic economic weakness persists, with real estate policies underperforming and manufacturing not experiencing seasonal strength, prompting the central bank to consider preemptive rate cuts[3] Investment Strategy - US inflation trends appear optimistic, but a cooling job market and service sector may lead to three potential rate cuts by the European Central Bank this year, with the Federal Reserve likely to cut rates in September[3] - In China, macroeconomic policy effects remain insufficient, with manufacturing and real estate sectors under pressure, suggesting a continued economic bottoming out in the short term[3] Asset Performance - A-shares outperformed other markets, while commodities saw a decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.37% and the Hang Seng Index dropping by 5.63%[4] - The bond market showed mixed results, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.27%, reflecting a 11 basis point increase, while the 10-2Y yield spread narrowed to -14 basis points[35] Risk Assessment - The stock-bond risk premium increased to 4.24%, indicating a higher risk appetite among investors, while foreign capital risk premium rose to 6.39%, suggesting a neutral to high level of foreign investment attractiveness[9] - Key risks include US inflation and employment disturbances, as well as the potential for geopolitical conflicts impacting market stability[3] Commodity Insights - Industrial commodities are expected to experience a rebound in August, followed by adjustments in September, with low inventory levels providing some support against declines[39] - Agricultural products are anticipated to stabilize after weather-related price fluctuations, with a focus on buying opportunities during pullbacks[39]