Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Weekly Report on Live Pigs (2025-8-18) [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Investment Rating - Supply: Bullish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bullish [3] Core Viewpoints - The new regulation on road transport of animals will reduce the risk of cross - regional disease transmission, but may increase the price difference between production and sales areas in the short term, regulate speculative secondary fattening, and promote the stable operation of the pig market [3] - As the impact of high - temperature weather weakens and school banquets and the start of the school semester approach, the demand for catering will pick up, which may boost pig prices [3] - With the synergy of policy and enterprise actions, the market path in the second half of the year may be similar to that in 2023, with pig prices rising moderately and weights decreasing significantly [3] - Operationally, pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of live pigs from November to January [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - The spot price of live pigs in Henan and its seasonal chart are analyzed, with data from Wind [4][5][6] - The basis of live pig futures contracts has narrow - range fluctuations, and the near - month contracts are at par. The data is from Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [7][8][9] - The price difference between live pig futures contracts has narrow - range fluctuations and is at a normal level in the same period of history, with data from Zhengxin Futures Research Institute [10][11][12] - The institutional net positions of the November and January contracts of live pig futures are analyzed, showing that the net short positions of the November contract increase and those of the January contract decrease. The data is from Wind [13][14][15] Supply Analysis - The inventory of breeding sows is analyzed, with data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs [16][17][18] - The supply of piglets in Henan, including the price ratio and the number of newborn piglets, is analyzed, with data from WIND [19][20][21] - The average weight and structure of commercial pig slaughter of sample breeding enterprises are analyzed [22][23] - The daily and seasonal charts of the price difference between standard and fat pigs are analyzed [24][25] Demand Analysis - The daily operating rate and seasonal profit chart of key pig slaughtering enterprises are analyzed [26][28] - The frozen product inventory, including the capacity utilization rate and its seasonal chart, as well as the fresh - sales rate, are analyzed, with data from Mysteel [29][31][32] - The price ratio between pork and eggs, and between pork and vegetables are analyzed [33] Profit Analysis - The breeding profit, including self - breeding and self - fattening and purchasing piglets for fattening, and its seasonal chart are analyzed, with data from Mysteel [35][36][37] - The pig - grain price ratio in large and medium - sized cities in China and its seasonal chart are analyzed [38][40]

Report Overview - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Egg Weekly Report 2025 - 8 - 18 [2] - Research Group: Zhengxin Futures Research Institute - Agricultural Products Research Group [2] Industry Investment Rating - Supply: Bearish [3] - Demand: Neutral [3] - Profit: Neutral [3] - Price and Volume: Neutral [3] - Strategy: Bearish [3] Core Viewpoints - This week, the price of culled chickens from sample breeding enterprises continued to decline, the culling age fluctuated slightly, the price difference between large and small eggs oscillated at a high level, and the price of chicks continued to drop [3] - The high price difference between large and small eggs and the relatively strong price of culled chickens indicate more new additions and fewer culls, which may suppress the price elasticity in the traditional consumption peak season [3] - This year, the capacity reduction is insufficient, the Mid - Autumn Festival stocking is premature, and the egg - laying rate decline due to high temperature is getting smaller, so the rebound momentum in the peak season is limited [3] - This week, the sales volume in the main sales areas and the shipping volume in the main production areas decreased slightly, and the inventory in the circulation and production links also decreased slightly [3] - Traders are afraid of price drops, purchase cautiously, and the overall sales in the production areas are a bit slow [3] - The breeding profit has rebounded slightly and is near the break - even point, and the egg - feed ratio is at the lowest level in the same period of the past 4 years [3] - The egg futures contracts in the delivery month are slightly at a discount, while the other contracts are slightly at a premium [3] - The price difference between the near and far - term egg futures has dropped significantly and is at a moderately high level [3] - Due to the change of the main contract of egg futures, the net short position of institutions in September decreased, while that in October increased [3] - Under the background of high inventory, the near - term supply pressure is large, and the far - term situation will gradually improve with the strengthening of capacity reduction expectations [3] - Before the capacity is cleared due to breeding losses, the pattern of near - term weakness and far - term strength of egg futures is expected to continue, and it is recommended to pay attention to the reverse spread opportunity of egg 9 - 1 [3] Summary by Directory Price and Volume Analysis - Sub - sections include spot price (comparison between main production area price and main sales area price), egg basis (basis of each egg futures contract), egg price difference (price difference of each egg futures contract), and futures institutional net position (long - to - short ratio of institutional positions in September and October egg futures contracts) [4][7][10][13] Supply Analysis - Covers aspects such as egg - laying hen inventory and its structure, culling situation (culled chicken price and average culling age), replenishment situation (price of commercial egg - laying chicks and hatching egg utilization rate), and size - code situation (prices of large and small eggs and seasonal chart of price difference) [16][18][20][23] Demand Analysis - Includes发货量&销量 (sales volume in main sales areas and shipping volume in main production areas), inventory (production - link inventory and circulation - link inventory), and substitutes (seasonal charts of egg - to - pork price ratio and egg - to - vegetable price ratio) [26][28][31] Profit Analysis - Comprises breeding profit (current profit vs. expected profit and comprehensive egg - laying hen breeding profit) and egg - feed ratio (egg - feed ratio and its break - even point, and seasonal chart of egg - feed ratio) [34][37]

政策及产地报告均利多， 油脂延续强势，菜油波动较大 正信期货棕榈油周报 20250818 分析师：张翠萍 投资咨询证号：Z0016574 23 主要观点 行情回顾 基本面分析 1目 录 CONTENTS 4 价差跟踪 PPT模板：www.1ppt.com/moban/ PPT素材：www.1ppt.com/sucai/ PPT背景：www.1ppt.com/beijing/ PPT图表：www.1ppt.com/tubiao/ PPT下载：www.1ppt.com/xiazai/ PPT教程： www.1ppt.com/powerpoint/ 资料下载：www.1ppt.com/ziliao/ 范文下载：www.1ppt.com/fanwen/ 试卷下载：www.1ppt.com/shiti/ 教案下载：www.1ppt.com/jiaoan/ PPT论坛：www.1ppt.cn PPT课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/ 语文课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/yuw en/ 数学课件：www.1ppt.com/kejian/shuxu e/ 英语课件：www.1ppt.com/keji ...

原油：等待美俄会谈落地，油价低位震荡 正信期货原油周报 20250818 研究员：付馨苇 投资咨询编号：Z0022192 Email: fuxw@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 研究员：赵婷 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 5 原油供需平衡总结 内容要点 Ø 宏观方面：美国CPI符合预期，降息预期升温。CME"美联储观察" ：美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为15.4%，降息25个基点 的概率为84.6%。美联储10月维持利率不变的概率为6%，累计降息25个基点的概率为42.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为51.5%。 Ø 供应端：地缘方面，8月15俄罗斯总统普京与美国总统特朗普的会谈落地。特朗普表示，与普京的会晤"极其富有成效"，但 同时强调，结束冲突的协议尚未最终达成。总体谈判气氛积极，但没有实质内容。美国方面，美国至8月15日当周石油钻井总数 412口，前值411口。欧佩克方面，OPEC+八国于达成9月增产54.8万桶/日的决议，全面退出自2023年起八个成员国实施的220万 桶/日减产协议。7月份欧佩克+原油 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken last week, market sentiment cooled significantly, and it is expected that the black market still has room for correction, but differentiation among varieties may intensify. Hold short positions in rebar and pay attention to the correction space [7]. - For iron ore, the supply decreased slightly week - on - week last week, demand increased marginally, and the supply - demand structure improved week - on - week. In the short term, the bullish sentiment in the market may cool down, but the resilience of iron ore demand may be repeatedly traded, and the ore price may maintain the current oscillating and slightly strong trend. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading [7]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Steel Products Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Rebar prices corrected from high levels last week, hot - rolled coils oscillated, and the trends of coils and rebars diverged. The rebar 10 contract fell 25 to 3188, and the spot price in East China dropped 20 week - on - week to 3320 yuan/ton [13]. 1.2 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.59%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 4.75 percentage points year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.22%, an increase of 0.13 percentage points week - on - week and 4.30 percentage points year - on - year. The daily average hot - metal output was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week and 11.89 tons year - on - year [15]. - The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills nationwide was 57.39%, an increase of 0.49 percentage points week - on - week and 21.74 percentage points year - on - year. The average operating rate was 76.39%, an increase of 1.49 percentage points week - on - week and 23.97 percentage points year - on - year [24]. - The supply of five major steel products last week was 871.63 tons, an increase of 2.42 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 0.3%. Among them, rebar production decreased by 0.7 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 0.7 tons [28]. 1.3 Demand - From August 6th to 12th, the national cement delivery volume was 2.608 million tons, a decrease of 1.27% week - on - week and 19.88% year - on - year. The direct supply volume of infrastructure cement was 1.59 million tons, a decrease of 1.24% week - on - week and 3.64% year - on - year. The speculative demand for building materials also declined [31]. - For hot - rolled coils, from August 1st to 10th, the national passenger car retail sales were 452,000 units, a decrease of 4% year - on - year and an increase of 6% compared with the same period last month. Manufacturing orders increased month - on - month, but overseas demand may continue to decline due to anti - dumping duties imposed by Japan and South Korea [34]. 1.4 Profit - The blast furnace steel mill profitability rate was 65.8%, a decrease of 2.60 percentage points week - on - week and an increase of 61.04 percentage points year - on - year. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was - 47 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 53 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - The total inventory of five major steel products last week was 14.1597 million tons, an increase of 406,100 tons week - on - week, a growth rate of 2.95%. Rebar social inventory increased significantly, and the factory inventory also increased by 40,000 tons [42]. - For hot - rolled coils, the in - plant inventory increased by 21,000 tons, and the social inventory increased by 8,400 tons [45]. 1.6 Basis - The rebar 10 basis was 112, a narrowing of 5 compared with last week. The hot - rolled coil basis was - 9, a narrowing of 21 compared with last week [48]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 81, a deeper inversion of 8 compared with last week. As the 10 - contract approaches its end, the pressure on the near - month contract increases [51]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar in the futures market was 251, an expansion of 36 compared with last week. The spot spread was 130, an expansion of 20 compared with last week [54]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Iron ore prices oscillated after a correction last week, showing a narrow - range fluctuation. The 09 contract rose 7 to 790, with both trading volume and open interest declining. The spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port rose 2 to 771 yuan/ton [60]. 2.2 Supply - The global iron ore shipment volume was 30.467 million tons, a decrease of 150,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average shipment volume in August was 30.543 million tons, a decrease of 190,000 tons compared with last month and 1.2 million tons compared with last year [63]. - The weekly average shipment volume from Australia was 17.214 million tons, a decrease of 360,000 tons compared with last month and 610,000 tons compared with last year. The weekly average shipment volume from Brazil was 8.099 million tons, a decrease of 160,000 tons compared with last month and 210,000 tons compared with last year [66]. - The 47 - port iron ore arrival volume was 25.716 million tons, a decrease of 510,000 tons week - on - week. The weekly average arrival volume in August was 25.97 million tons, an increase of 340,000 tons compared with last month and 320,000 tons compared with last year [69]. 2.3 Demand - The daily average hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.66 tons, an increase of 0.34 tons week - on - week. Iron ore demand rebounded week - on - week, and it is expected to increase further next week [72]. - The average daily port trading volume last week was 954,000 tons, an increase of 66,000 tons week - on - week. Steel mills replenished their stocks as needed [76]. 2.4 Inventory - As of August 15th, the total inventory of 47 - port iron ore was 143.8157 million tons, an increase of 1.14 million tons week - on - week, a decrease of 12.29 million tons compared with the beginning of the year, and 12.71 million tons lower than the same period last year [79]. - On August 14th, the total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills was 27.7594 million tons, an increase of 196,600 tons compared with the previous period [82]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping cost from Western Australia to China was 9.93 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.05 US dollars week - on - week. The shipping cost from Brazil to China was 24.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 0.68 US dollars week - on - week [85]. 2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread was 20.5, unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low - neutral level. The 01 - contract discount was 19.5, basically unchanged compared with last week, at a relatively low level [89].

正信期货研究院 黑色产业组 研究员：杨辉 煤矿供应端扰动持续，盘面回调后仍难跌 煤焦周度报告 20250818 投资咨询证号：Z0019319 Email：yangh@zxqh.net | 报告主要观点 | | --- | | 版块 | 关键词 | 主要观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 焦炭 | 价格 | 上周盘面先涨后跌，短期仍难跌、但向上力度弱化；现货第六轮提涨落地 | | | 供给 | 焦企盈利小幅改善，独立焦企供应微增 | | | 需求 | 铁水维持高位，刚需支撑较强；投机情绪一般，出口利润下滑，建材现货日成交量改善持续性不佳 | | | 库存 | 全环节降库，总库存下降 | | | 利润 | 焦企盈利小幅改善，焦炭盘面利润继续回落 | | | 基差价差 | 焦炭01升水收敛，1-5价差继续走弱 | | | | 上周盘面先涨后跌，周初受唐山钢材限产、山东焦化限产及新版《煤矿安全规程》新闻发布会影响，双焦大幅拉涨；周三大商所调整焦煤交易限额及手 续费，市场情绪转弱，加之上周钢材表需下滑、库存加速积累，焦煤触及前高后大幅回落。截至周五收盘，焦炭01合约跌0.25%至1729.5，焦煤0 ...

宏观数据偏弱，黑色高位回调 钢矿周度报告 2025-08-18 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 价格 | 主要观点 现货小幅下跌，盘面震荡运行 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供给 | 高炉产量小幅增加，电炉产量同步走高 建材社库继续累积，板材库存同步增加 | | | 库存 | | | | 需求 | 建材需求走弱，板材表需回升 | | 钢 材 | 利润 | 高炉利润高位收窄，电炉利润收窄明显 | | | 基差 | 板材建材基差双双收窄 | | | | 美国核心通胀超预期，降息压力增加，国内方面，7月宏观数据全面走弱，市场期待政策进一步加码；产业变化：上周高炉开工环比回升，铁水产量小幅走 高，电炉开工继续回升，整体供应增加，其中螺纹产量微降，主要受部分钢厂轧线检修及品种调配影响，板类产量略有增加；需求方面，水泥发运环比回 | | | 总结 | 落，建材需求继续走低；板类需求 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of the glass industry are currently weak in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the demand during the peak season. For the soda ash industry, the fundamentals have not improved, and it will experience short - term fluctuations [1]. - For soda ash, the industry pattern has not significantly improved. Supply - side production has rebounded and remained at a high level, while demand is mostly for rigid needs. Short - term upstream inventory has increased again, and the absolute inventory level is high, which is difficult to provide sufficient support based on fundamentals. Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes and coal price fluctuations. For glass, the fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange recently. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [4][36]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Price - This week, the spot price slightly decreased, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remained stable. The mainstream trade areas in North China and East China saw price drops in heavy soda ash. The national market prices of heavy and light soda ash both slightly decreased. The futures price was stable with a slight upward trend. The closing price of the main SA2501 contract increased, the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [5][9]. 3.1.2 Supply - Last week, the production of soda ash increased, with both light and heavy soda ash production rising. The overall operating rate increased, with the operating rate of the ammonia - soda process slightly decreasing and that of the co - production process increasing significantly [4][13]. 3.1.3 Demand - Last week, the shipment volume of soda ash enterprises increased, and the overall production - sales rate increased. However, the demand slightly weakened, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased based on rigid needs. Next week, the demand for float glass is expected to increase slightly, while that for photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease. The net export volume decreased in June [4][21]. 3.1.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of soda ash enterprises increased slightly. The inventory of light soda ash increased, while that of heavy soda ash decreased [4][29]. 3.1.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of the co - production method (double - ton) and the ammonia - soda method both decreased slightly [4][33]. 3.1.6 Strategy - The soda ash industry pattern has not improved significantly. Supply remains high, demand is mostly rigid, and inventory is accumulating. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and coal price fluctuations [4]. 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Price - The spot price was stable with a slight decrease. The futures price of the main 2601 contract increased, while the 9 - 1 spread decreased, and the basis of the main 01 contract decreased [37][42]. 3.2.2 Supply - Last week, the daily output and weekly output of float glass remained unchanged. The operating rate increased slightly, and the capacity utilization rate remained unchanged. There were 223 production lines in operation and 73 cold - repaired and shut - down lines [36][47]. 3.2.3 Demand - As of mid - August, the order days of deep - processing enterprises increased slightly, but the downstream demand recovery was slow. The real - estate end - stage recovery was weak, and the new - construction willingness at the front - end was low. In July, the production and sales of automobiles decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year and were at a relatively high level in recent years [36][56]. 3.2.4 Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises increased by 2.55% month - on - month, and inventories in all regions increased to varying degrees [36][63]. 3.2.5 Cost and Profit - Last week, the profits of float glass produced by coal - gas, natural gas, and petroleum coke all decreased slightly [36][77]. 3.2.6 Strategy - The fundamentals have deteriorated in the short - term, and there have been frequent regulatory actions by the exchange. Short - term risks should be vigilant, and attention should be paid to the replenishment intensity in late August [36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply - demand situation of pulp shows initial marginal improvement. International pulp mills are actively reducing production and switching production, leading to a tightening of domestic circulating supply. The downstream procurement sentiment has slightly improved, with leading paper mills entering the market to purchase. It is expected that the price of the pulp 2511 contract will oscillate and rebound in the range of 5200 - 5450 this week [4]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Pulp Price Analysis - **Spot Pulp Price Review**: Last week, the spot market price of pulp showed that softwood pulp remained relatively stable, while hardwood pulp increased slightly. Among them, the price of softwood pulp Silver Star in Shandong was 5850 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; the price of hardwood pulp Goldfish was 4200 yuan/ton, up 120 yuan/ton (or +2.94%) from the previous week. The prices of chemical mechanical pulp, natural color pulp, and non - wood pulp were flat compared to the previous week [10][13]. - **Pulp Futures Review**: Last week, the main pulp futures contract SP2511 oscillated and rebounded in a range of more than 140 points, closing at 5306 yuan/ton for the week, up 114 yuan/ton (or +2.2%) [14]. - **Pulp Futures - Spot Basis Comparison**: Due to the smaller increase in the spot price of softwood pulp than that of pulp futures, the basis discount has decreased. The basis discount between softwood pulp and the closing price of the main futures contract is 544 yuan/ton, a reduction of 144 yuan/ton compared to last week [18]. - **Log Futures Review**: Last week, the main log futures contract 2509 showed a slight oscillatory decline, closing at 815.0 yuan/cubic meter for the week, down 15.5 yuan/cubic meter (or -1.87%) from the previous week [19]. 3.2 Pulp Supply - Side Analysis - **Weekly Pulp Production**: Last week, the pulp production was 48.1 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.2 tons (or +0.42%). It is expected that the domestic production of hardwood pulp will be about 21.0 tons and chemical mechanical pulp will be about 20.9 tons this week [4][21]. - **Capacity Utilization of Hardwood Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of domestic hardwood pulp was 76.6%, up 0.3% week - on - week; the capacity utilization rate of domestic chemical mechanical pulp was 87.1%, up 0.4% week - on - week [26]. - **Monthly Pulp Production**: In July 2025, the domestic pulp production was 212.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.2 tons (or +2.51%) [27]. - **Monthly Capacity Utilization of Chemical Mechanical Pulp and Hardwood Pulp**: In July 2025, the domestic chemical mechanical pulp production was 89.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.1 tons (or +4.8%), with a capacity utilization rate of 84.2%, down 0.8% month - on - month; the hardwood pulp production was 91.7 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.6 tons (or +2.92%), with a capacity utilization rate of 83.0%, up 2.4% month - on - month [31]. - **Monthly Production Profit of Hardwood Pulp and Chemical Mechanical Pulp**: In July 2025, the production profit of hardwood pulp was 512.7 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 19.1 yuan/ton (or +3.87%); the production profit of chemical mechanical pulp was - 307.9 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month loss reduction of 69 yuan/ton [35]. - **Pulp Imports**: In July 2025, the pulp import volume was 287.68 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.38 tons (or -5.08%), and a year - on - year increase of 55.22 tons (or +23.75%) [36]. 3.3 Pulp Demand - Side Analysis - **Downstream Tissue Paper Market**: Last week, the domestic tissue paper production was 28.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.19 tons (or +0.68%); the capacity utilization rate was 63.5%, up 0.4% week - on - week [40]. - **Downstream Cultural Paper Market**: Last week, the copperplate paper production was 7.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 tons (or +1.3%); the offset paper production was 20.7 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.3 tons (or -1.43%) [42]. - **Downstream Packaging Paper Market**: Last week, the white cardboard production was 31.5 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.8 tons (or +2.61%); the white board paper production was 18.0 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.6 tons (or -3.23%); the corrugated paper production was 46.17 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.91 tons (or -1.93%); the boxboard paper production was 61.91 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.92 tons (or +1.51%) [45][48]. - **Downstream Base Paper Spot Price Analysis**: Last week, the prices of tissue paper and cultural paper remained stable compared to the previous week; the price of white board paper increased slightly, while the price of white cardboard remained stable; the price of corrugated paper increased slightly, while the price of boxboard paper remained stable [49][52][55]. - **Downstream Base Paper Capacity Utilization**: In July 2025, the capacity utilization rate of domestic tissue paper was 65.33%, up 2.33% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of white cardboard was 74.59%, up 1.29% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of offset paper was 55.96%, down 0.41% month - on - month; the capacity utilization rate of copperplate paper was 57.6%, up 1.25% month - on - month [57][59]. - **Domestic Actual Pulp Consumption**: In July 2025, the actual pulp consumption was 332.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.6 tons (or +3.94%), and a year - on - year increase of 10.6 tons (or +3.3%) [63]. 3.4 Pulp Inventory - Side Analysis - **Pulp Port Inventory**: Currently, the overall pulp port inventory shows an accumulation trend, with the inventory of mainstream port samples at 209.9 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons (or +2.49%); among them, the inventory at Qingdao Port was 137.5 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0 tons (or -0.72%); the inventory at Changshu Port was 53.6 tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.1 tons (or +10.52%); the inventory at Tianjin Port was 6.3 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.3 tons (or +5.0%) [64][68]. - **Pulp Futures Warehouse Receipts**: Currently, the pulp futures warehouse receipts are 24.18 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2455 tons (or -1.01%); the total warehouse receipts in Shandong are 22.32 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1856 tons (or -0.82%) [69].

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 2,288 tons to 19,600 tons week-on-week, with a slight increase in the production of spodumene and mica. In July, Chile exported 13,600 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 33% increase month-on-month and a 13% decrease year-on-year. This week, China's social inventory of lithium carbonate increased by 692 tons to 142,400 tons. The Ningde Jianxiawo Mine has stopped production, creating a short - term supply - demand gap [6]. - Demand side: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side. In July, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the terminal market were 987,000 units, a 12.0% increase year-on-year and an 11.2% decrease month-on-month [6]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [6]. - Strategy: In the short term, the shutdown of the Jianxiawo Mine will create a supply - demand gap of thousands of tons, and it is expected that the lithium price will be strong. If the mine resumes production quickly, the lithium price may fall. If the scope of mine shutdowns expands, the lithium price center will further increase [6]. Group 3: Summary by Catalog Supply Side - **Lithium spodumene imports**: From January to May, China imported 2.92 million tons of lithium spodumene. In June, the import volume was 576,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease month-on-month. In May, imports from Australia decreased by 31% month-on-month, from South Africa increased by 87% month-on-month, and from Zimbabwe increased by 3% month-on-month [10]. - **Lithium concentrate price**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 5.4% week-on-week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.3% week-on-week. Overseas mines continue to hold firm on prices, and it is expected that the price of lithium ore will fluctuate with the price of lithium salt [13]. - **Domestic lithium carbonate production**: In July, China's monthly total production of lithium carbonate exceeded 80,000 tons for the first time, a 4% increase month-on-month and a 26% increase year-on-year. The production of lithium carbonate from spodumene and recycling increased by 14% and 10% respectively month-on-month, while that from lepidolite and salt lakes decreased by 8% and 2% respectively [16]. - **Chile's lithium carbonate exports to China**: From January to June, China's cumulative import of lithium carbonate was 118,000 tons, a 11.3% increase year-on-year. In June, Chile exported 10,200 tons of lithium carbonate to China, a 41% decrease year-on-year and a 6% increase month-on-month [20]. - **Spot price**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 71,900 yuan/ton, with a slight week-on-week increase. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 69,800 yuan/ton, also with a slight week-on-week increase [23]. Demand Side - **Positive electrode factory capacity utilization**: From January to June, China's cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate positive electrodes was 1.48 million tons, a 47.8% increase year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative production of ternary positive electrodes was 278,000 tons, a 9.9% increase year-on-year. In May, the capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 58.8%, and that of ternary materials was 49.5% [30]. - **Global new energy vehicle market**: From January to May this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 5.564 million units, a 25.5% increase year-on-year. In the same period, European new energy vehicle sales were 1.311 million units, a 23.3% increase year-on-year, and US sales were 517,000 units, a 9.9% increase year-on-year [34]. - **China's new energy vehicle market**: From January to June, China's new energy vehicle market had cumulative sales of 6.934 million units, a 40.3% increase year-on-year. From July 1st to July 20th, the retail sales of the national new energy passenger vehicle market were 537,000 units, a 23% increase year-on-year and a 12% decrease month-on-month [37]. - **Power battery production**: In June, China's total production of power and other batteries was 129.2 GWh, a 4.6% increase month-on-month and a 51.4% increase year-on-year. From January to June, the cumulative production was 697.3 GWh, a 60.4% increase year-on-year [42]. - **Domestic mobile phone shipments**: In the first quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 71.6 million units, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [47]. - **New energy storage installation**: From January to May this year, the total installed capacity of newly commissioned new - type energy storage projects was 18.62 GW/47.57 GWh, with a 110% increase in power and a 112.94% increase in capacity year-on-year. In June, the installed capacity was 2.33 GW/5.63 GWh, a significant decrease year-on-year and month-on-month [50]. - **August downstream production scheduling**: In August, downstream production scheduling increased by 4% - 5% month-on-month, with good performance on the energy storage side [56]. Other Indicators - **Non - integrated lithium salt factory cost**: The theoretical production cost of manufacturers processing with purchased spodumene is 79,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4,201 yuan/ton week-on-week. The theoretical production profit is - 11,770 yuan/ton, an increase of 201 yuan/ton week-on-week [53]. - **Basis**: This week, the lithium carbonate basis was - 5,060, with the spot price higher than the futures price. The basis of the contract turned negative [59]. - **Contract spread**: This week, the term structure of lithium carbonate contracts was a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - nearby contract and the nearby contract turned positive, with the spread increasing by 920 compared to last week [64].