作者：赵婷 审核：王艳红 投资咨询编号：Z0016344 投资咨询编号：Z0010675 Email: zhaot@zxqh.net Tel：027-68851659 内容要点 PTA：供需转弱预期下，PTA偏弱震荡 MEG：供应明显回升预期下，MEG难有起色 正信期货聚酯月报 20251009 数据来源：WIND,隆众 | 开工率 | 76.0343 | (%) | 开工率 | 66.64 | (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 价格 | 4545 | 元/吨 | 价格 | 4275 | 元/吨 | | 涨跌 | -4.11% | PTA | 涨跌 | -5.71% | MEG | | PTA加工费 | 211.7133 | | 油制利润 | -128.764 | | | 加工费涨跌 | 22.60% | | 煤制利润 | -287.7 | | 开工率 87.6229 聚酯(%) 元/吨 POY FDY DTY 开工率 元/吨 元/吨 | 价格 | 5750 | 瓶片 | 价格 | 6625 | 6700 | 7800 | 91.54 | 长丝 | 价 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Non-ferrous Metals Arbitrage Weekly Report 20250922 [2] - Researchers: Zhang Jiefu, Wang Yanhong [2] - Investment Advisory Numbers: Z0016959, Z0010675 [2] - Email: zhangjf@zxqh.net, wangyh@zxqh.net [2] - Tel: 027 - 68851554 [2] Investment Ratings - No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - For zinc's inter - period arbitrage, due to recent domestic smelting expansion, rapid accumulation of social inventory, and the zinc ore supply shifting from tight to loose cyclically, if there is no significant demand increase throughout the year, the supply - demand balance will tend towards surplus, putting pressure on the long - term price center. It is recommended to participate in zinc's inter - period positive arbitrage on dips [4]. - For the cross - variety arbitrage of aluminum and zinc, the zinc ore market is marginally loosening, with domestic smelting expanding and social inventory accumulating rapidly. The supply - demand balance is moving towards surplus. Meanwhile, the inflection point of aluminum's social inventory is approaching, and its fundamentals are stronger than zinc. It is recommended to participate in the strategy of going long on aluminum and short on zinc on dips [4]. Section Summaries 1. Weekly Price Performance Review and Capital Flow - **Price Review**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most non - ferrous metals on LME and SHFE showed price declines. LME copper dropped from 10067.5 to 9996.5, a decrease of 0.71%; LME zinc fell from 2956 to 2898.5, a decline of 1.95%. SHFE copper decreased from 81060 to 79910, a drop of 1.42%; SHFE zinc went down from 22305 to 22045, a decline of 1.17%. Only SHFE lead had a price increase, rising from 17040 to 17150, an increase of 0.65% [8]. - **Capital Flow**: The unilateral open interest of most non - ferrous metals is at a relatively low level in recent years. The unilateral open interest of aluminum has increased significantly recently. This week, the unilateral open interest of copper, aluminum, nickel, and tin decreased by 8.3%, 14.3%, 7.2%, and 6.3% respectively, while that of zinc and lead increased by 6.1% and 2.1% respectively. Except for zinc and lead, the main non - ferrous metals had net capital outflows this week [10]. 2. Non - ferrous Metal Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: From September 12 to September 19, 2025, LME copper inventory decreased by 4.09% to 147650; LME aluminum inventory increased by 5.90% to 513900; LME zinc inventory decreased by 5.34% to 47825; LME lead inventory decreased by 4.04% to 220300; LME nickel inventory increased by 1.49% to 228444; LME tin inventory decreased by 4.39% to 2505 [26]. - **Profit**: This week, the processing fee of copper decreased slightly, and the smelter suffered a loss of 2426 yuan/ton, with the loss widening slightly compared to last week. The theoretical smelting cost of aluminum was 18320 yuan/ton, and the smelting profit rose slightly to 2520 yuan/ton. The import processing fee of zinc increased slightly, and the theoretical smelting profit of domestic zinc ore was 1040 yuan/ton [44]. 3. Non - ferrous Metal Basis and Term Structure - **Basis**: On September 19, 2025, the copper basis was 140, with a basis premium rate of 0.18%; the aluminum basis was 45, with a basis premium rate of 0.22%; the zinc basis was - 35, with a basis premium rate of - 0.16%; the lead basis was 110, with a basis premium rate of 0.64%; the nickel basis was 1520, with a basis premium rate of 1.25%; the tin basis was 240, with a basis premium rate of 0.09% [47]. - **Term Structure**: This week, zinc and nickel were in a Contango structure. The spread between the first - line contract and the near - month contract of copper was - 60, an increase of 240 compared to last week; that of aluminum was 15, an increase of 180; that of zinc was - 5, a decrease of 60; that of lead was 30, a decrease of 10; that of nickel was 230, an increase of 50; that of tin was 340, a decrease of 430 [62]. 4. Comparison of Domestic and Overseas Metal Prices - **Shanghai - London Ratio**: The Shanghai - London ratios of zinc and lead are at relatively high historical levels. This week, the Shanghai - London ratios of major metals showed mixed trends. The Shanghai - London ratios of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin were 1.12, 1.09, 1.07, 1.20, 1.12, and 1.10 respectively [79]. - **Import Profit and Loss**: This week, the import profit and loss of lead and nickel were 851 and 302 respectively, while those of other major metals were negative. Factors such as the Fed's interest - rate cut policy, the comparison of domestic and overseas inventories, and domestic macro - policy expectations should be considered for domestic - overseas arbitrage [79]. 5. Cross - variety Ratio Changes - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the copper - aluminum ratio was 3.84, with a ratio percentile of 83.9% and a spread of 59115; the copper - zinc ratio was 3.62, with a ratio percentile of 99.7% and a spread of 57865; the copper - lead ratio was 4.66, with a ratio percentile of 84.0% and a spread of 62760. The ratios and spreads of other metal combinations also showed different values and percentile positions compared to three months ago and one year ago [96].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, lowering the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25%, the first rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. However, due to the coexistence of inflationary upside and employment downside risks, there are significant differences within the Fed regarding interest rate forecasts. Powell indicated that this is a risk management-type rate cut, and his hawkish remarks have brought uncertainty to the rate cut path in the second half of the year. Nevertheless, the market still places high bets on rate cuts in the second half of the year. After the rate cut expectation was realized, the precious metals sector experienced a short-term correction due to profit-taking and is oscillating strongly. [3] - In the short term, affected by the realization of the Fed's rate cut expectation and the strengthening of the US dollar index, precious metals will experience a brief correction. From a medium- to long-term fundamental perspective, it is expected that the transmission of tariffs to inflation will gradually become apparent. If inflation significantly heats up and the employment market shows signs of recovery in the second half of the year, it may affect the Fed's rate cut rhythm, which will be negative for precious metals. Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the investment demand for precious metals from central banks and investors remains strong, providing bottom support for precious metals prices. The long-term bullish logic remains unchanged. The price of Shanghai Gold is long-term bullish, short-term oscillating, and investors should pay attention to correction opportunities. In the medium term, it is recommended to hold long positions or buy low and sell high. Shanghai Silver is short-term oscillating, and in the medium term, it is recommended to buy on dips. [3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: The spot price of gold in the London market increased by 0.33% to $3663.15 per ounce, and the COMEX gold futures price rose by 1.05% to $3719.40 per ounce. The price of the Shanghai Gold main contract decreased by 0.47% to 830.56 yuan per gram, and the price of Gold A (T+D) decreased by 0.52% to 826.00 yuan per gram. The COMEX gold inventory increased by 1.41% to 3946.35 million ounces, and the total COMEX gold position increased by 1.29% to 520,000 lots. The speculative net long position of COMEX gold increased by 1.78% to 266,400 lots. The spot price of silver in the London market decreased by 0.06% to $42.24 per ounce, and the COMEX silver futures price rose by 1.60% to $43.37 per ounce. The price of the Shanghai Silver main contract decreased by 0.64% to 9971.00 yuan per kilogram, and the price of Silver A (T+D) decreased by 0.94% to 9940.00 yuan per kilogram. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.64% to 52404.33 million ounces, and the total COMEX silver position increased by 3.99% to 163,000 lots. The speculative net long position of COMEX silver decreased by 4.45% to 51,500 lots [5]. - **Gold-Silver Ratio**: The domestic gold-silver ratio fell to around 83 last week, and the overseas gold-silver ratio fell to around 85, still higher than its long-term historical average. After the Fed cut interest rates in September, in line with market expectations, precious metals prices rose and then corrected due to profit-taking by investors [7]. - **Domestic-Overseas Price Spread**: The domestic-overseas price spreads of gold and silver both decreased compared to the previous week. After the rate cut expectation was realized, the precious metals sector experienced a short-term correction due to profit-taking and is oscillating strongly [10]. 2. Macroeconomic Aspects - **US Dollar Index**: The Fed cut the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% at its September FOMC meeting, the first rate cut this year, in line with market expectations. After the interest rate decision was announced, the US dollar index plunged and remained at a low level, boosting precious metals prices. Due to Powell's hawkish remarks, the US dollar index rebounded, and precious metals prices oscillated strongly [13]. - **US Treasury Real Yields**: After the Fed announced its September interest rate decision, the real yields of 5-year and 10-year US Treasury bonds declined. However, subsequent hawkish remarks by Powell and a decrease in the number of unemployment benefit claims announced on Thursday indicated a slowdown in the weakening trend of the labor market, causing the real yields of US Treasury bonds to rebound [16]. - **Key US Economic Data**: In August, the US CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 3.1% year-on-year. The PPI was 2.6% year-on-year, lower than expected, and -0.1% month-on-month, turning negative for the first time in four months. The core PCE price index in July increased by 2.88% year-on-year, and the PCE price index increased by 2.6% year-on-year. The ISM manufacturing PMI in August was 48.7, and the ISM services PMI was 52. Retail sales in August increased by 0.63% month-on-month. The ADP employment number in August increased by only 54,000, and non-farm payrolls increased by only 22,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. The number of initial unemployment benefit claims last week decreased by 33,000 to 231,000 [20][24][27]. - **Fed's Interest Rate Cut and Geopolitical Factors**: The Fed's September interest rate cut was in line with market expectations, but Powell's remarks were hawkish. The market still has high expectations for rate cuts in the second half of the year. Sino-US negotiations have made progress, while the Russia-Ukraine situation continues to disrupt the market [34]. 3. Position Analysis - **Hedge Fund Positions**: As of the week ending September 16, 2025, the speculative net long position of CMX gold increased by 47,000 lots to 266,400 lots, while the speculative net long position of CMX silver decreased by 24,000 lots to 51,500 lots [37]. - **ETF Positions**: As of September 19, 2025, the holdings of the SPDR Gold ETF increased by 19.76 tons to 994.56 tons, and the holdings of the SLV Silver ETF increased by 135.53 tons to 15,205.14 tons. Overall, the inflow of funds into gold and silver ETFs increased last week [38]. 4. Other Factors - **Gold and Silver Inventories**: Last week, the COMEX gold inventory was 3946.35 million ounces, a 1.41% month-on-month increase, and the COMEX silver inventory was 52404.33 million ounces, a 0.64% month-on-month decrease [42]. - **Gold and Silver Demand**: In September 2025, the global gold reserve increased by 15.24 tons to 36,359.73 tons. China's gold reserve increased by 1.87 tons to 2300.40 tons, the 10th consecutive month of increase. In the second quarter of 2025, the global total gold demand increased by 3% year-on-year to 1249 tons. The global silver market is expected to be in a structural shortage for the fifth consecutive year in 2025, with strong industrial demand for silver [45]. This Week's Key Focus - **Fed Officials' Speeches**: Fed officials will deliver speeches on the US economic outlook this week. Pay attention to the future direction of the Fed's monetary policy [46]. - **Key US Economic Data**: The US core PCE price index for August and the University of Michigan consumer confidence index for September will be released this week. Pay attention to the US inflation situation [46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, copper prices fluctuated within a range, and prices were boosted by macro - factors at the end of the month. The implementation of US copper tariffs led to a narrowing of price spreads. COMEX copper ended a more than half - year tariff - expected trading with a 24% weekly decline, and the $3000 premium spread between COMEX and LME copper disappeared overnight. Macro expectations are leaning towards an increased probability of interest rate cuts in September, and domestic policy expectations are strengthening with a bright performance in the equity market. In the industrial fundamentals, although it was the off - season in China in August, the spot premium was strong, smelting profits did not improve significantly, and production declined month - on - month. After the tariff implementation, global visible inventories increased further. The flow of the 260,000 tons of COMEX copper inventory (with a cumulative increase of 170,000 tons this year) is crucial, and it may flow back to the LME copper market. During the re - balancing process, the emergence of invisible inventories due to demand shocks may affect the international copper price pricing center. In August, the copper price game was dull, with no obvious signs of long or short position increases and a low overall position level. However, the main price variable is still overseas. With the increasing certainty of interest rate cuts and the expectation of the peak season, copper prices may oscillate strongly, but attention should be paid to the weekly line pressure at the 80,000 level [4][5][83][84]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory Macro - level - In August, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded (the preliminary value in August was 50.05%, a 0.7 - percentage - point month - on - month increase), while the US manufacturing level declined (the preliminary value of the US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in July was 49.5%, a 3.4 - percentage - point month - on - month decrease, hitting a nine - month low and remaining below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months). China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, a 0.1 - percentage - point month - on - month increase, remaining below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months. The manufacturing industry was in a passive de - stocking stage under weak recovery, with a slight expansion in supply, a further decline in inventory, and a price increase, indicating an increase in apparent demand due to macro - policy stimulus. The implementation of US tariff policies and whether there will be incremental fiscal policies in China in the fourth quarter to promote the manufacturing industry into an active inventory - replenishment stage need to be continuously monitored. Macro expectations are leaning towards an increased probability of interest rate cuts. Under the continuous pressure from the Trump administration, Powell may change his monetary policy stance and not prioritize inflation control. After the marginal weakening of the US economic "hard data", the probability of an interest rate cut in September has increased significantly. Domestic policy expectations are strengthening, and the equity market is performing well [11][12]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - Global copper mine production: In 2024, the annual production was 2283.5 million tons, a 2.54% year - on - year increase, with a market surplus of 30.1 million tons. In 2025, from January to June, the cumulative production was 1144 million tons, a 3.32% year - on - year increase, with a supply surplus of 25.1 million tons in the first half of the year. In June, the production was 191.6 million tons, a 3.57% year - on - year increase, with a supply surplus of 4.2 million tons [21]. - China's copper concentrate imports: In 2024, the cumulative import was 2811.4 million tons, a 2.1% year - on - year increase. In 2025, in July, the import was about 256 million tons, an 18.4% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative import from January to July was 1731.4 million tons, an 8% year - on - year increase [25]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - On August 29, the SMM import copper concentrate index (weekly) was - 41.48 dollars/dry ton, a 0.33 - dollar decrease from the previous period. The 2025 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 21.25 dollars/ton and 2.125 cents/pound [29]. Refined Copper Production - In August, SMM China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons month - on - month (a 0.24% decrease) and increased by 15.59% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by 97.88 million tons (a 12.30% increase). It is expected that in September, domestic electrolytic copper production will decrease by 5.25 million tons month - on - month (a 4.48% decrease) and increase by 11.47 million tons year - on - year (an 11.42% increase). From January to September, the cumulative production is expected to increase by 109.35 million tons (a 12.20% increase) [36]. Refined Copper Imports and Exports - In 2024, China imported 373.88 million tons of refined copper (a 6.49% year - on - year increase) and exported 45.75 million tons (a 63.86% year - on - year increase). In 2025, in July, the import of electrolytic copper was 29.69 million tons (a 1.20% month - on - month decrease but a 7.56% year - on - year increase), and the export soared to 11.84 million tons (a 49.86% month - on - month increase and a 69.13% year - on - year increase) [42]. Scrap Copper Supply - In 2024, China imported 225 million tons of copper scrap (a 13.26% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, the cumulative import was 133.55 million tons (a 0.77% year - on - year decrease), and in July, the import was 19.01 million tons (a 3.73% month - on - month increase but a 2.36% year - on - year decrease) [46]. Scrap - refined Copper Price Spread - The average price spread between refined and scrap copper rods was 862 yuan/ton, a 138 - yuan month - on - month increase. The weekly operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises was 11.80%, a 5.03 - percentage - point week - on - week decrease and a 1.46 - percentage - point year - on - year decrease [49]. Consumption - end - Power and grid investment: In 2024, power investment was 1168.722 billion yuan (a 12.14% year - on - year increase), and grid investment was 608.258 billion yuan (a 15.26% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, power investment was 428.8 billion yuan (a 3.4% year - on - year increase), and grid investment was 331.5 billion yuan (a 12.5% year - on - year increase) [50]. - Air - conditioner production: In 2024, the annual production was 265.9844 million units (a 9.7% year - on - year increase). In 2025, from January to July, the production was 183.4554 million units (a 5.1% year - on - year increase), and the monthly production decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, entering the production off - season [53]. - Automobile production: In 2025, from January to July, the cumulative production of automobiles was 18.235 million units (a 12.7% year - on - year increase), and the production of new - energy vehicles was 1.243 million units in July (a 26.3% year - on - year increase), accounting for 48.7% of the total new - vehicle sales [58]. - Real - estate: In 2024, the real - estate completion area was 737 million square meters (a 27.7% year - on - year decrease), and the new - construction area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In 2025, in July, the completion area was 250 million square meters (a 16.5% year - on - year decrease), and the new - construction area decreased by 19.4% year - on - year [60]. Other Elements Inventory - As of August 29, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 516,400 tons, a 51,100 - ton monthly increase. The LME copper inventory increased by 22,000 tons to 158,900 tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 7205 tons to 77,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 21,800 tons to 277,800 tons. As of August 28, the domestic bonded - area inventory was 75,000 tons, a 6000 - ton decrease from the previous week [66]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Position - As of August 26, the CFTC non - commercial long net position was 26,230 lots, a monthly decrease of 11,117 lots. The non - commercial long position was 56,762 lots (a 17,888 - lot monthly decrease), and the non - commercial short position was 30,532 lots (a 6771 - lot monthly decrease) [68]. Premium and Discount - As of August 29, the LME copper spot discount was - 80.26 dollars/ton, and the discount pattern expanded. The domestic spot premium first decreased and then increased. It is expected that the SHFE copper spot premium will remain firm [77]. Basis - As of August 29, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous average price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 60 yuan/ton [79]. Market Outlook - In the macro - level, copper prices may be boosted by the increasing certainty of interest rate cuts and the peak - season expectation, but attention should be paid to the weekly line pressure at the 80,000 level. In the industrial fundamentals, the flow of COMEX copper inventory and the impact of invisible inventory emergence on the international copper price pricing center need to be closely monitored [83][84].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views - The Fed cut interest rates in September, which was in line with expectations and neutral. In the short term, the positive news has been exhausted, and in the long term, a new interest - rate cut cycle has begun. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - data guidance [6]. - Before the holiday, with the Fed's September FOMC meeting outcome in line with expectations and neutral, the short - term macro positive news has landed. The long - position funds in the market have left, and the market has returned to range - bound trading. It is expected that the price will fluctuate between 20,600 and 21,000. It is recommended to go long on dips and bet on the peak - season expectations [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Alumina - Industry Fundamentals 3.1.1 Supply - In August 2025, the total alumina production capacity in China was 11,462 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.19% and a month - on - month increase of 160 million tons. The in - production capacity was 9,505 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.32% and a month - on - month increase of 40 million tons [11]. - In August 2025, China's alumina output was 792.47 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% and a month - on - month increase of 36 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 6,052.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% [14]. - In August 2025, China's alumina开工率 was 82.93, slightly lower than the same period last year and a month - on - month decline of 0.82%. The smelting profit declined slightly compared with the end of July. The in - production capacity continued to recover, but the开工 rate declined slightly month - on - month [17]. - In August 2025, China's alumina net exports were 8.56 million tons, showing a net - export pattern for 17 consecutive months, with a slight month - on - month decline. From January to August 2025, China's cumulative alumina net exports were 126.16 million tons, a significant year - on - year increase [21]. 3.1.2 Demand - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 3,014 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [24]. 3.1.3 Cost - The prices of domestic and foreign bauxite remained unchanged week - on - week. The CIF average price of Guinea bauxite was reported at $74.5 per ton, and that of Australian bauxite was reported at $70 per ton, both unchanged from last week [27]. - The latest price of caustic soda was 3,750 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan per ton, or 1.35% [30]. 3.1.4 Profit - The current full production cost of alumina was 2,854.3 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 2.9 yuan per ton. The smelting profit was 196.7 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 72.6 yuan per ton [33]. - The alumina import profit was 184 yuan per ton, a week - on - week increase of 126 yuan per ton [36]. 3.1.5 Inventory - As of September 18, the port inventory of alumina was 3 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.2 million tons [39]. 3.1.6 Supply - Demand Balance - Since January 2025, the domestic alumina supply has returned to an oversupply pattern. Considering new production capacity, it is expected to remain oversupplied in the long run. In August, the oversupply volume increased slightly month - on - month [42]. 3.2 Electrolytic Aluminum - Industry Fundamentals 3.2.1 Supply - In August 2025, China's total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.2 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.52% and unchanged month - on - month. The in - production capacity was 4,437.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.99% and a month - on - month increase of 15 million tons. The capacity utilization rate was 98.61, a slight month - on - month increase [45]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum output was 380 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5% and a month - on - month increase of 2.1 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 3,014 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.2% [48]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum开工率 was 98.11, a year - on - year increase of 1.46% and a month - on - month increase of 0.33%, at a historically high level with limited upside space [51]. - In August 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum net imports were 19.17 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.33 million tons and a month - on - month decrease of 1.49 million tons. The import channel has gradually opened in recent years [56]. - On September 18, 2025, the average price of scrap aluminum was 20,930 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 60 yuan per ton. The refined - scrap spread was 950 yuan per ton, a week - on - week convergence of 50 yuan per ton [58]. - In August 2025, China's scrap aluminum imports were 17.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 25.3% and a month - on - month increase of 1.21 million tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative scrap aluminum imports were 134.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.26%. The current import volume is at a relatively high level compared to historical data, but may decline after August due to tariff policies [61]. 3.2.2 Demand - In August 2025, China's aluminum product output was 554.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.2% and a month - on - month increase of 6.45 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 4,378.98 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. A seasonal rebound is expected later [64]. - In August 2025, China's aluminum alloy output was 163.5 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.2% and a month - on - month increase of 9.9 million tons. The cumulative output this year was 1,232.4 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.3% [67]. 3.2.3 Cost - The spot prices of domestic and foreign alumina continued to decline week - on - week [70]. - The price of pre - baked anodes remained unchanged week - on - week at 5,627.5 yuan per ton [73]. - The prices of dry - process aluminum fluoride and cryolite remained unchanged week - on - week, at 9,580 yuan per ton and 8,390 yuan per ton respectively [76]. 3.2.4 Profit - The current electrolytic aluminum smelting cost was 16,575 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 90 yuan per ton. The overall profit was 4,385 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120 yuan per ton [79]. - The current electrolytic aluminum import loss was 1,644 yuan per ton, a week - on - week significant widening of 265 yuan per ton [82]. 3.2.5 Inventory - As of September 18, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in mainstream consumption areas was 64 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.6 million tons and an increase of 0.2 million tons during the week. The overall social inventory level was still at a relatively low level compared to historical data [85]. - In August 2025, the monthly electrolytic aluminum spot inventory was 62.2 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 7.7 million tons, at a relatively low historical level [88]. - As of September 18, the inventory of 6063 aluminum rods was 13.02 million tons, a week - on - week decline of 0.01 million tons and a decline of 0.54 million tons during the week. The current inventory is at a relatively high level compared to historical data [91]. 3.2.6 Basis - The spot price of aluminum in East China was between 20,720 and 20,920 yuan per ton, a week - on - week decline of 210 yuan per ton. The spot discount converged, and downstream buyers were still somewhat resistant to high prices [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in October is 8.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 91.9%. For December, the probability of keeping rates unchanged is 1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 18.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 80.5% [7]. - The zinc market is currently flat with small price fluctuations. The Fed's rate cut is in line with market expectations. The decline in the Shanghai - London ratio has widened losses in refined zinc and imported ore imports, partially offset by an increase in imported ore processing fees [7]. - On the supply side, domestic smelters' operating rates have increased due to profit incentives, leading to increased refined zinc output and accelerated inventory accumulation. Overseas high - cost smelters are facing losses and have cut production, causing a continuous decline in LME inventories. The trend of increasing losses in refined zinc imports reflects the different situations of domestic and overseas smelting [7]. - From a global perspective, the supply of zinc ore is gradually becoming more abundant. Although the transmission from increased ore production to increased smelting output is delayed due to overseas smelter production cuts, the sufficient domestic smelting capacity can digest the increased ore output, ultimately leading to an increase in refined zinc production [7]. - On the demand side, it remains relatively stable, mainly maintaining the existing level. With supply increasing and demand stable, there is a tendency for an oversupply in the zinc market [7]. - In the short and medium term, the probability of a significant decline in zinc prices is low. In the long term, the expectation of a shift from balance to oversupply in the zinc market remains unchanged. It is advisable to lay out long - term short positions on rallies, and enterprises can purchase as needed for now [7]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Core Viewpoints - Summarized above [7] Part 2: Industry Fundamental - Supply Side - **Zinc Concentrate Output**: In June 2025, global zinc concentrate output was 1.0814 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.11%. The 2025 international long - term zinc ore TC price was set at $80/ton, the lowest in history, but the supply of zinc ore is still showing a marginal loosening trend [8]. - **Zinc Concentrate Imports and Processing Fees**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative imports of zinc concentrate were 3.5033 million physical tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.02%. As of September 19, the imported ore processing fee was reported at $111.25/ton, and the domestic ore processing fee was reported at 3850 yuan/ton, showing a divergence between the two [11]. - **Smelter Profit Estimation**: The profit of domestic ore smelting remains good, while imported ore has turned into a loss due to the internal - external price ratio issue [14]. - **Refined Zinc Output**: In June 2025, global refined zinc output was 1.1565 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.22%. In August 2025, domestic refined zinc output was 624,600 tons, a year - on - year increase of 28% [17]. - **Refined Zinc Import Profit and Import Volume**: From January to August 2025, China's cumulative net imports of refined zinc were 222,400 tons. The refined zinc import window is currently closed [20]. Part 3: Industry Fundamental - Consumption Side - **Refined Zinc Initial - stage Consumption**: In July 2025, domestic galvanized sheet output was 2.35 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.44%. The apparent consumption of galvanized products is relatively low, indicating weak actual demand and active destocking of hidden inventory in the industrial chain [25]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure investment completion (excluding electricity) has declined. The back - end of the real estate market has stabilized at a low level, but front - end indicators such as new construction and construction are still weak [27]. - **Refined Zinc Terminal Consumption**: In August 2025, domestic automobile production was 2.815 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 12.95%. With consumer loan interest subsidies and the release of a new round of national subsidy funds, household appliance consumption is expected to maintain its resilience [29]. Part 4: Other Indicators - **Inventory**: Inventory shows an increase domestically and a decrease overseas. As domestic smelters continue to increase output, the trend of inventory accumulation in social warehouses will continue [32]. - **Spot Premium and Discount**: As of September 19, the LME 0 - 3 premium and discount for zinc was reported at a premium of $50.91/ton. With a significant increase in social inventory, the domestic spot premium is low [35]. - **Exchange Positions**: As of September 12, the net long position of LME zinc investment funds was 28,762 lots. The weighted position of SHFE zinc has recently stabilized [38].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - OPEC+ has confirmed the start of a second - round production increase, and the off - peak demand season has arrived as expected. The pressure of crude oil surplus in the fourth quarter will further increase. Although OPEC+ has not clearly defined the production increase route, once the oil price rises, it will boost the enthusiasm for production increase, which will always suppress the upside of the oil price. The medium - to - long - term strategy of shorting on rallies remains unchanged. In the short term, the interest rate cut, one of the bullish drivers, has been implemented. It is expected that WTI will mainly fluctuate between $60 - $65 after a correction, waiting for further drivers to break the range. Seize the rebound trading opportunities brought by the volatile geopolitical situation [5]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 International Crude Oil Analysis - **Crude Oil Price Trends**: From September 15 - 19, international oil prices rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, oil prices rose due to sanctions on Russia by Europe and the United States and interest rate cut expectations. After the interest rate cut was implemented, the macro - premium began to be continuously adjusted. As of September 19, WTI and Brent settled at $63.62/barrel (+1.43%) and $67.6/barrel (+1.42%) respectively; INE SC settled at 493.22 yuan/barrel (+2.18%) [9]. - **Financial Aspects**: The Federal Reserve cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25%, in line with market expectations. As of September 19, the S&P 500 index continued to rebound since mid - April and reached a new high; the VIX volatility was 15.45, significantly lower than when the tariff policy was first introduced and still at a relatively low level [13]. - **Crude Oil Volatility and Dollar Index**: The crude oil ETF volatility declined this week, and the dollar index fluctuated. As of September 19, the crude oil volatility ETF was 30.53, and the dollar index was 97.6519. Although the Fed cut interest rates this week, Powell's speech was slightly hawkish. The market priced in only one interest rate cut in each of next year and the year after, causing the dollar index to fluctuate [17]. - **Crude Oil Fund Net Long Positions**: As of September 16, the net long positions of WTI managed funds increased by 26,800 contracts to 36,800 contracts week - on - week, a weekly increase of 267.9%; the speculative net long positions decreased by 9,900 contracts to 61,900 contracts, a weekly decline of 13.8%. The market bet on the intensification of geopolitical sanctions risks, and the interest rate cut expectations boosted market sentiment, leading to an increase in net long positions before the interest rate cut was implemented [20]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - Side Analysis - **OPEC Overall Production**: In August, OPEC's crude oil production increased by 478,000 barrels per day to 27.948 million barrels per day compared with the previous month. Most countries have started to increase production, with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq leading the way. However, the production of the eight core OPEC+ countries that agreed to increase production was still 154,000 barrels per day lower than the plan in August, mainly because some countries were fulfilling their submitted compensation production - cut plans [26]. - **OPEC+ Production - Cut Situation**: According to the IEA statistics, the production of nine OPEC member countries in August was 23.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 190,000 barrels per day. The UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, and Kazakhstan still over - produced significantly, but the overall over - production of the nine countries decreased compared with the previous month. Seven countries updated their compensation production - cut plans, and the concentrated production cuts were extended to the first half of next year [30]. - **Saudi and Iranian Crude Oil Production**: Saudi Arabia's production continued to rise. In August, its crude oil production increased by 259,000 barrels per day to 9.709 million barrels per day. Iran's production continued to decline. In August, its crude oil production decreased by 27,000 barrels per day to 3.218 million barrels per day, affected by sanctions and the Israel - Iran war [32]. - **Russian Crude Oil Supply**: According to the OPEC statistics, Russia's crude oil production in August was 9.173 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 53,000 barrels per day; according to the IEA statistics, it was 9.28 million barrels per day, a month - on - month increase of 80,000 barrels per day. Production is gradually recovering under the production - increase plan but remains at a relatively low level [42]. - **US Crude Oil Rig Count**: As of the week of September 19, the number of active drilling oil wells in the US was 418, an increase of 2 from the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 70. The improvement in drilling and well efficiency allows producers to maintain record - high production while controlling capital expenditure. The rig count in the Permian region has significantly decreased, and the potential for crude oil production increase may be limited [46]. - **US Crude Oil Production**: As of the week of September 12, US crude oil production marginally rebounded to 13.482 million barrels per day, a decrease of 13,000 barrels per day from the previous week and a year - on - year increase of 2.14%. Low oil prices in the first half of the year dampened producers' enthusiasm, compressing the potential for US oil production increase in the second half of the year. However, relatively healthy oil prices during the peak season in the third quarter and high well production efficiency will prevent production from a sharp decline [49]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - Side Analysis - **US Total Petroleum Product Demand**: US petroleum product demand has peaked and declined. The single - week demand for refined oil products has rebounded, but the four - week average demand has decreased. In absolute terms, the current demand level is at the upper end of historical levels, and the peak - season demand has peaked. As of the week of September 12, the four - week average total demand for petroleum products was 20.671 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 217,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 1.69% [53]. - **US Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Distillate Data**: From August 12 to September 12, US crude oil production decreased by 13,000 barrels per day (-0.10%), consumption decreased by 217,000 barrels per day (-1.04%), refinery processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day (-2.34%), and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 1.6% (-1.69%). Gasoline production decreased by 18,000 barrels per day (-1.88%), and the implied demand decreased by 8,000 barrels per day (-0.09%). Distillate production decreased by 274,000 barrels per day (-5.24%), and the implied demand decreased by 86,000 barrels per day (-2.26%) [57]. - **US Gasoline, Diesel, and Kerosene Four - Week Average Consumption**: As of September 12, the four - week average demand for gasoline decreased by 8,000 barrels per day to 8.919 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; the average demand for distillates decreased by 86,000 barrels per day to 3.727 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 1.77%; the average consumption of kerosene decreased by 69,000 barrels per day to 1.703 million barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 1.13% [60]. - **US Gasoline and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: This week, the US gasoline crack spread and heating oil crack spread fluctuated. As of September 19, the gasoline crack spread was $20.09 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $33.87 per barrel. The crude oil side was relatively strong due to geopolitical uncertainties, while gasoline demand showed signs of peaking, causing the crack spread to decline seasonally. The heating oil took over the demand baton, but the crack spread also declined due to unexpected inventory builds [61]. - **European Diesel and Heating Oil Crack Spreads**: As of September 19, the ICE diesel crack spread was $27.93 per barrel, and the heating oil crack spread was $29.87 per barrel. Supported by the seasonal recovery of distillate demand, the crack spreads had rebounded, but the unexpected inventory build of distillates this week raised market concerns, causing the crack spreads to decline slightly [65]. - **China's Oil Products and Refinery Situation**: In August, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 4.391 million tons year - on - year to 63.46 million tons (+7.43%); the import volume increased by 392,000 tons year - on - year to 49.492 million tons (+0.8%). Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation this year, China's oil imports from the Gulf region have surged, and Russia's oil supply has also rebounded significantly compared with previous years. The import volume rebounded seasonally in August [68]. - **Institutional Forecasts of Demand Growth**: Three major international institutions have become more optimistic about this year's demand growth rate. OPEC maintained last month's forecast, while the IEA and EIA raised their forecasts for global oil demand growth. In September, the EIA, IEA, and OPEC expected the global crude oil demand growth rate this year to be 900,000 barrels per day (↑), 740,000 barrels per day (↑), and 1.3 million barrels per day (-) respectively, and 1.28 million barrels per day, 700,000 barrels per day, and 1.4 million barrels per day next year [72]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - Side Analysis - **US Crude Oil Inventory**: US commercial crude oil inventories declined again to a very low level in the five - year range due to the rebound in exports. As of September 12, EIA commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 9.285 million barrels to 415.36 million barrels, a year - on - year decrease of 0.52%; SPR inventories increased by 504,000 barrels to 405.73 million barrels; and Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 296,000 barrels to 23.561 million barrels [73]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of the week of September 12, the net import volume of US crude oil decreased by 3.111 million barrels per day to 415,000 barrels per day. The refinery processing volume decreased by 394,000 barrels per day to 16.424 million barrels per day, and the refinery utilization rate decreased by 1.6% to 93.3% [77]. - **WTI and Brent Month - Spreads**: As of September 19, the WTI M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.28 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $1.16 per barrel. The WTI month - spread maintained a backwardation structure but continued to weaken. The Brent M1 - M2 month - spread was $0.64 per barrel, and the M1 - M5 month - spread was $1.49 per barrel. The Brent month - spread was stronger than the WTI this week due to European sanctions on Russian crude oil, which tightened the supply outlook in Europe [80][82]. 3.5 Crude Oil Supply - Demand Balance Difference - **Global Oil Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: In September, the EIA predicted that this year's global oil supply would be 105.54 million barrels per day, and demand would be 103.81 million barrels per day, with a daily surplus of 1.73 million barrels, an increase from last month. Although the EIA raised its demand forecast, due to OPEC+ opening a flexible production - increase window of 1.65 million barrels per day, the pressure of supply surplus this year is expected to be greater [85]. - **Term Structure**: This week, the US fundamental data indicated that the peak - season demand had peaked, and the term structure continued to flatten. Due to geopolitical factors, the supply of Brent was expected to be tighter, supporting a stronger contango structure. Currently, international oil products can maintain a contango term structure, but as the peak - season demand weakens, if OPEC+ continues to accelerate production increase in the near - term, the term structure may change [88].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Supply side: This week, China's lithium carbonate production increased by 400 tons week - on - week to 20,400 tons, with a slight increase in output from each raw material end. In August, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,000 tons, a 4.8% decrease month - on - month and a 6.9% increase year - on - year, expected to arrive in China from late September to October. China's social inventory of lithium carbonate decreased by 981 tons week - on - week to 137,500 tons, continuing the de - stocking trend. Refineries and other sectors reduced inventory, while downstream sectors increased inventory [6]. - Demand side: According to research, the downstream production schedule in September increased by about 5% month - on - month, and overseas energy storage demand was remarkable. Ningde's production schedule guidance for suppliers in 2026 was revised up to 1100GWh, a 46% increase year - on - year, exceeding market expectations [6]. - Cost side: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3.8% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.9% week - on - week. It is expected that lithium ore prices will follow the movement of lithium salt prices. In July, China's spodumene imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.35% increase month - on - month [6]. - Strategy: Boosted by strong peak - season demand, lithium prices are trending upwards. The news of the possible复产 of the Jianxiakeng Mine has been fully priced in, and the expectation of supply contraction has cooled, but there are still news disturbances. The current lithium price is in a relatively balanced range, suppressed by high inventory and hedging demand on the upside and supported by peak - season demand on the downside. It is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate within the range of [70,000, 76,000]. Pay attention to the progress of issues at the mine end, and enterprises can consider purchasing on demand when prices are low [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Supply Side - **Lithium concentrate imports**: From January to June, China imported 3.496 million tons of spodumene. In July, imports were 751,000 tons, a 30.4% increase month - on - month, with a significant increase in imports from Australia [10]. - **Lithium concentrate prices**: This week, the price of spodumene concentrate increased by 3.8% week - on - week, and the price of lepidolite concentrate increased by 5.9% week - on - week. It is expected that lithium ore prices will fluctuate with lithium salt prices [13]. - **Lithium carbonate production**: From January to August this year, China's cumulative lithium carbonate production was 550,000 tons, a 38.9% increase year - on - year. In August, domestic lithium carbonate production was 80,000 tons, a 7.3% increase month - on - month [17]. - **Lithium carbonate imports**: From January to July, China's cumulative lithium carbonate imports were 131,600 tons, basically flat year - on - year. In August, the amount of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China was 13,000 tons, a 6.9% increase year - on - year and a 4.8% decrease month - on - month, expected to arrive in China from late September to October [21]. - **Spot prices**: This week, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, a 1.4% increase week - on - week. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,300 yuan/ton, a slight increase week - on - week [24]. - **Profitability of non - integrated plants**: After the lithium price correction, the profitability of non - integrated lithium salt plants deteriorated. Non - integrated spodumene manufacturers had a loss of about 664 yuan/ton, and non - integrated lepidolite manufacturers had a loss of 5,011 yuan/ton [28]. Demand Side - **Cathode material plants**: From January to July, China's cumulative production of lithium iron phosphate cathode was 1.746 million tons, a 46.4% increase year - on - year, and the cumulative production of ternary cathode was 399,000 tons, an 11.9% increase year - on - year. The industry capacity utilization rate was low. In July, the capacity utilization rate of lithium iron phosphate was 59.7%, and that of ternary materials was 49.4% [34]. - **Downstream production schedule**: It is expected that the downstream production schedule in September will increase by about 5% month - on - month, and energy storage demand is remarkable [37]. - **Global new energy vehicle market**: From January to July this year, global new energy vehicle sales were 10.657 million, a 25.0% increase year - on - year. China and the European market had strong growth, while the US growth slowed down [40]. - **Domestic new energy vehicle market**: From January to August, China's new energy vehicle market had cumulative sales of 9.592 million, a 36.4% increase year - on - year. From September 1 - 14, the retail sales of the national passenger new energy vehicle market were 438,000, a 6% increase year - on - year and a 10% increase month - on - month [43]. - **Power battery production**: In July, China's total production of power and other batteries was 133.8GWh, a 3.6% increase month - on - month and a 44.3% increase year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative production was 831.1GWh, a 57.5% increase year - on - year [47]. - **Consumer electronics**: In the second quarter of 2025, China's smartphone market shipments were 69 million, a 4.0% decrease year - on - year. The production of electronic computer complete machines in the second quarter was 93.7 million, an 8.2% increase year - on - year [51]. - **Overseas energy storage demand**: From January to July 2025, the new installed capacity of new - type energy storage was 25.85GW/67.75GWh, a 48.8% increase in capacity year - on - year. Overseas, the energy storage growth rate was remarkable [56]. Other Indicators - **Basis**: This week, the lithium carbonate basis was - 460, with the spot price at a discount to the futures price. The spread between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate was flat week - on - week at 2,250 yuan/ton [59]. - **Term structure**: This week, the lithium carbonate contract term structure was in a horizontal structure, and the spread between the first - continuous and near - month contracts turned positive, with a spread of 200, an increase of 360 from last week [62].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, copper prices dropped significantly with reduced positions. After the Fed's interest - rate cut met expectations, the positive news was exhausted, and the lack of spot support led copper prices back to a volatile trend. There is still a probability of triggering a recession expectation due to the slowdown of the US economy and the rapid decline of employment indicators. On the industrial fundamental side, the return of the peak season is not significant, and attention should be paid to whether there will be pre - holiday inventory reduction through stocking. The spot premium has fallen from a high level, and social inventory has increased. Although the smelting processing fee is low, the production remains stable. Globally, copper inventory is still not low. The total position of copper has dropped below 500,000 lots again. The Shanghai copper price should temporarily focus on the support at 79,600 yuan, and spot purchases should be made as needed, reducing the amount of advance stocking [5][86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Macro - level - **PMI**: In August 2025, the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI rebounded to 50.05% (up 0.7 percentage points month - on - month), while the US manufacturing level declined. The US July S&P Global manufacturing PMI was 49.5% (down 3.4 percentage points month - on - month), hitting a 9 - month low and staying below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. China's August manufacturing PMI was 49.4% (up 0.1 percentage points month - on - month), remaining below the boom - bust line for five consecutive months [12]. - **Interest - rate cut**: The Fed cut interest rates by 25BP after highlighting economic slowdown risks and pressured employment data. The market had fully priced in the cut in advance, and the interest - rate cut path remained cautious, with a weakened impact on inflation expectations. The US economic data continued to slow down, and employment indicators dropped rapidly, increasing the risk of a recession [5][13][86]. Industrial Fundamentals - **Copper concentrate supply**: In 2024, the global copper mine production was 2283.5 million tons (up 2.54% year - on - year), with a market surplus of 30.1 million tons. In 2025 from January to June, the cumulative production was 1144 million tons (up 3.32% year - on - year), with a surplus of 25.1 million tons. China's copper concentrate imports also showed an increasing trend. In 2025 August, imports were 275.9 million tons (up 7.2% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month), with cumulative imports from January to August at 2005.4 million tons (up 7.9% year - on - year) [22][29]. - **TC**: On September 19, 2025, the SMM import copper concentrate index was - 40.8 dollars/dry ton (up 0.5 dollars/dry ton from the previous period). The 2025 long - term processing fee benchmark was set at 21.25 dollars/ton and 2.125 cents/pound [33]. - **Refined copper production**: In August 2025, China's electrolytic copper production decreased by 0.28 million tons month - on - month (a decline of 0.24%) but increased by 15.59% year - on - year. From January to August, the cumulative production increased by 97.88 million tons (a growth of 12.30%). It is expected that in September, production will decrease by 5.25 million tons month - on - month (a decline of 4.48%) but increase by 11.47 million tons year - on - year (an increase of 11.42%) [40]. - **Refined copper import and export**: In 2024, China imported 373.88 million tons of refined copper (up 6.49% year - on - year) and exported 45.75 million tons (up 63.86% year - on - year). In July 2025, imports were 29.69 million tons (down 1.20% month - on - month but up 7.56% year - on - year), and exports soared to 11.84 million tons (up 49.86% month - on - month and 69.13% year - on - year) [46]. - **Scrap copper supply**: In 2024, China imported 225 million tons of copper scrap (up 13.26% year - on - year). In July 2025, imports were 19.01 million tons (up 3.73% month - on - month but down 2.36% year - on - year), and from January to July, cumulative imports were 133.55 million tons (down 0.77% year - on - year) [50]. - **Consumption end**: - **Power and grid investment**: In 2024 from January to December, power investment was 11687.22 billion yuan (up 12.14% year - on - year), and grid investment was 6082.58 billion yuan (up 15.26% year - on - year). In 2025 from January to July, power investment was 4288 billion yuan (up 3.4% year - on - year), and grid investment was 3315 billion yuan (up 12.5% year - on - year) [54]. - **Air - conditioner production**: In 2024 from January to December, the cumulative air - conditioner production was 26598.44 million units (up 9.7% year - on - year). In 2025 from January to August, it was 19964.62 million units (up 5.8% year - on - year), with a decline in monthly production and a slowdown in the year - on - year growth rate [57]. - **Automobile production**: In 2025 from January to August, China's automobile production and sales were 2105.1 million and 2112.8 million vehicles respectively (up 12.7% and 12.6% year - on - year). New energy vehicle production and sales were 962.5 million and 962 million vehicles respectively (up 37.3% and 36.7% year - on - year), with a new - car penetration rate of 45.5% [62]. - **Real estate**: In 2024 from January to December, the real - estate completion area was 7.37 billion square meters (down 27.7% year - on - year), and the new - start area decreased by 23% year - on - year. In August 2025, the completion area was 2.77 billion square meters (down 17% year - on - year), and the new - start area decreased by 19.5% year - on - year [64]. Other Elements - **Inventory**: As of September 19, 2025, the total inventory of the three major exchanges was 57 million tons (up 1.17 million tons week - on - week). The LME copper inventory decreased by 6000 tons to 14.77 million tons, the SHFE inventory increased by 1.17 million tons to 10.58 million tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 6290 tons to 31.68 million tons. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 7.68 million tons (up 0.41 million tons from the previous week) [69]. - **CFTC non - commercial net position**: As of September 16, 2025, the CFTC non - commercial long - net position was 30348 lots (up 3107 lots week - on - week), with non - commercial long positions at 69370 lots (up 5077 lots week - on - week) and non - commercial short positions at 39022 lots (up 1970 lots week - on - week) [71]. - **Premium and discount**: As of September 19, 2025, the LME copper spot discount was - 64.9 dollars/ton. The Shanghai area's premium stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected that next week, if the copper price remains around 80000 yuan/ton, the downstream's pre - holiday stocking sentiment may be better than expected; otherwise, it may decline [80]. - **Basis**: As of September 19, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals average price of copper 1 and the continuous third - contract was 200 yuan/ton [82]. Market Outlook - The copper price dropped significantly with reduced positions, and the total position fell below 500,000 lots again. The Shanghai copper price should temporarily focus on the support at 79,600 yuan. Spot purchases should be made as needed, reducing the amount of advance stocking [5][86].

Report Title - Glass: Low-level Volatility Continues, Focus on Peak-season Demand; Soda Ash: Supply Pressure Remains, Adopt Rebound Shorting Strategy [1] Report Core Views - For soda ash, the production remains at a high level, downstream low-price replenishment occurs but overall consumption fluctuates little, and the absolute inventory is high with limited fundamental drivers. In the short term, affected by market sentiment changes, the soda ash futures price rebounds and then falls. Overall, with a supply-demand imbalance, the strategy is to sell on rebounds. For glass, there is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but demand has not significantly improved. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the next round of restocking [4][38]. Summary by Industry Soda Ash Price - This week, the spot price remained stable, and the price difference between heavy and light soda ash remained stable. The mainstream trade areas had North China heavy soda ash at 1325 (unchanged) and East China heavy soda ash at 1250 (unchanged). Last week, the prices of heavy and light soda ash slightly decreased, with the national heavy soda ash market price at 1285 and the light soda ash market price at 1245, and the heavy-light soda ash price difference at +40 (unchanged). The futures price rebounded slightly. The closing price of the main SA2501 contract was 1318 (+28), the 1-5 spread was -89 (-11), and the basis of the main 01 contract was -32 (-23) (using the national heavy soda ash average price) [5][10]. Supply - Last week, the soda ash production was 74.57 tons (-1.54, -2.02%), including 32.80 tons of light soda ash (-1.14) and 41.77 tons of heavy soda ash (-0.40). The operating rate was 85.53% (-1.76%), with the ammonia-soda method at 88.87% (-1.97%) and the combined soda method at 75.53% (-1.87%) [4][14]. Demand - Last week, the soda ash enterprise shipment volume was 78.76 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.24%; the overall production-sales ratio was 105.62%, a week-on-week increase of +2.39%. Last week, the soda ash demand remained stable, and downstream enterprises mainly purchased based on rigid demand. Next week, the float glass is expected to increase slightly, while the photovoltaic glass is expected to decrease. In August, the soda ash imports were 0.03 tons, a month-on-month decrease of -0.29 tons; exports were 21.54 tons, a month-on-month increase of +5.41 tons, resulting in an increase in net exports [4][23]. Inventory - Last week, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 175.56 tons (-4.19, -2.33%), including 74.95 tons of light soda ash (-1.35) and 100.61 tons of heavy soda ash (-2.48). Both light and heavy soda ash inventories decreased [4][30]. Cost and Profit - Last week, the profit of the combined soda method (double tons) was -70.5 yuan/ton (-16); the profit of the ammonia-soda method was -36.75 yuan/ton (-0.45), showing overall stability [4][35]. Strategy - Given the high soda ash production, low-price downstream replenishment with little overall consumption fluctuation, and high absolute inventory, the fundamental drivers are limited. Considering the supply-demand imbalance, the strategy is to sell on rebounds [4]. Glass Price - Last week, the glass spot price remained stable with a slight increase. The ex-factory price of Wuhan Changli 5mm glass was 1160 (+40), and the ex-factory price of Shahe Anquan 5mm glass was 1088 (+12). The price difference between Changli and Shahe was +72 (+28). The futures price also rose. The closing price of the main 2601 contract was 1216 (+36), the 1-5 spread was -127 (-23), and using the Wuhan Changli ex-factory price as the spot benchmark, the basis of the main 01 contract was -56 (+4) [39][44]. Supply - Last week, the daily output of float glass in production was 16.02 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. The float glass production was 112.12 tons, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. The operating rate of float glass was 76.01%, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.08%, a week-on-week increase of +0.0%. Last week, there were 296 domestic glass production lines after excluding zombie lines, with 225 in production and 71 cold-repaired and shut down [38][50]. Demand - As of early September, the order days of deep-processing enterprises were 10.4 days, an increase of +0.75 compared to the previous period. The downstream demand recovery was slow. The real estate end-recovery situation was still weak, with the cumulative year-on-year decline of the completion end from January to August at -17%, and the front-end new construction willingness still low, with the cumulative year-on-year decline from January to July at -19.5%. According to CAAM data, in August, the automobile production and sales were 281.5 million and 285.7 million respectively, with month-on-month increases of +8.65% and +10.18% and year-on-year increases of +12.96% and +16.14%, respectively, which were at relatively high levels in recent years [38][59]. Inventory - Last week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 60.908 million weight cases, a week-on-week decrease of -1.10%. Different regions had different inventory changes, with North China increasing by 3.34%, East China decreasing by -1.35%, Central China decreasing by -5.41%, South China decreasing by -1.44%, Southwest increasing by 0.45%, Northeast decreasing by -2.27%, and Northwest decreasing by -6.25% [38][65]. Cost and Profit - Last week, the profit of coal-gas-fired float glass was +94.03 yuan/ton (-6.37); the profit of natural-gas-fired float glass was -164.84 yuan/ton (+9.29); the profit of petroleum-coke-fired float glass was 41.37 yuan/ton (+11.43). The industry profit remained stable in the short term [38][79]. Strategy - There is a slight inventory reduction in the short term, but demand has not significantly improved. Attention should be paid to the intensity of the next round of restocking [38].