房地产行业2024年中期策略：构筑底部，孕育复苏

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" outlook on the real estate industry for 2024 [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate industry is expected to build a bottom and nurture a recovery in 2024, with a projected total sales area of 957 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 14.3% [1][4] - The sales amount for 2024 is estimated at 9.58 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 17.9% [1][4] - The report highlights that the demand side shows signs of stabilization, while the supply side continues to face significant investment pressure [2][3] Summary by Sections Sales - The total sales area for commercial housing in 2024 is projected to be 957 million square meters, down 14.3% year-on-year [1][4] - The cumulative sales area for the first half of 2024 is expected to show a year-on-year decline of 19.0% [1][8] - The average sales price for commercial housing in 2024 is forecasted to be 10,004 yuan per square meter, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year [1][16] Supply - New construction area is expected to be 769 million square meters in 2024, down 19.4% year-on-year [2][21] - The total construction area at the end of 2024 is projected to be 7.303 billion square meters, a decrease of 12.9% year-on-year [2][28] - The completion area for 2024 is estimated at 785 million square meters, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 21.4% [2][35] Investment - The total real estate development investment for 2024 is projected to be 937 billion yuan, down 15.5% year-on-year [2][46] - The cumulative investment amount for the first half of 2024 is expected to show a year-on-year decline of 10.1% [2][42] Housing Prices - The report indicates that second-hand housing prices in lower-tier cities have undergone significant adjustments, while the new housing market in core cities is expected to stabilize first [2][6] - As of June 2024, the price index for newly built residential properties in 70 major cities has decreased for 13 consecutive months, while the second-hand housing price index has declined for 14 consecutive months [2][46] Investment Strategy - The report suggests that core cities are experiencing a structural imbalance in supply rather than a lack of demand, which may benefit quality real estate companies focused on these areas [3][6] - The ongoing demand from first-time buyers and the increasing supply of quality second-hand homes are expected to sustain transaction volumes in the second-hand housing market [3][6]