海外观察：2024年7月日本央行会议：日本央行加息影响分析及未来政策路径展望

Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate from 0-0.1% to approximately 0.25% on July 31, 2024, exceeding market expectations[2] - The monthly government bond purchase amount will be gradually reduced from about 6 trillion yen to around 3 trillion yen by January to March 2026[2] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Japan's core CPI year-on-year growth was 2.6% in June 2024, above the Bank of Japan's 2% inflation target[2] - Nominal wage growth accelerated to 2% year-on-year in May 2024, while real wage growth was -1.2%[2] Group 3: Future Outlook - The Bank of Japan may continue to raise interest rates one to two more times in the second half of 2024, but may not sustain this in 2025 due to weak economic growth and potential inflation decline[3] - The future trajectory of the yen will largely depend on the Federal Reserve's policies, with expectations of a potential depreciation if the Fed's rate cut expectations decrease[3] Group 4: Risks and Considerations - Risks include exchange rate fluctuations, policy adjustment uncertainties, and external economic impacts[3]