Zijin Mining(601899) 华安证券·2024-08-01 05:33Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with a first coverage recommendation [2][3]. Core Views - Zijin Mining has established itself as a leading global player in the copper and gold mining sector, with continuous project releases expected to enhance performance [1][2]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2024, projected to be between 14.55 billion to 15.45 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of approximately 41% to 50% [1][11]. - The rising gold prices driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and geopolitical uncertainties are expected to benefit the company's gold production, which reached 67.7 tons in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 20.17% [1][28]. - The copper market is experiencing supply tightness, with Zijin Mining's copper production in 2023 reaching 1.0073 million tons, placing it among the top five copper producers globally [1][19]. Summary by Sections 1. Company Overview - Zijin Mining has over 30 years of experience in the mining industry, focusing on the development of copper, gold, zinc, and lithium resources, with significant reserves reported as of the end of 2023 [1][19]. - The company has a clear shareholding structure, with the largest shareholder being the Finance Bureau of Shanghang County, holding 23.11% of the shares [15][16]. 2. Market Outlook - The outlook for gold and copper prices remains positive, with gold prices expected to rise due to central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [1][28]. - The company is well-positioned to benefit from the anticipated increase in demand for copper, driven by investments in domestic power grids and air conditioning production [1][34]. 3. Operational Efficiency - Zijin Mining employs a unique management model called "Five Rings Unified Management," which integrates various mining operations to reduce costs and improve efficiency [1][36]. - The company has a strong exploration capability, with over 50% of its copper and gold resources obtained through self-exploration, significantly lowering exploration costs compared to global peers [1][37]. 4. Financial Projections - The company forecasts net profits of 31.77 billion, 35.95 billion, and 39.34 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.87, 12.26, and 11.20 [2][40]. - Revenue is expected to grow steadily, with projected revenues of 326.03 billion, 352.80 billion, and 371.53 billion yuan for the years 2024 to 2026 [5][40].