[Table_StockNameRptType] 新凤鸣（603225） 公司点评 拟投资利夫生物，卡位生物基聚酯产业链 | 投资评级：买入（维持） [Table_Rank] | | | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025-07-21 | | [收盘价（元） Table_BaseData] | 11.15 | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 14.78/9.59 | | 总股本（百万股） | 1,525 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 1,512 | | 流通股比例（%） | 99.16 | | 总市值（亿元） | 170 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 169 | [Table_Chart] 公司价格与沪深 300 走势比较 -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 7/18 9/18 11/18 1/18 3/18 5/18 新凤鸣 沪深300 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 [Table_Author] 分析师：王强峰 分析师：潘宁馨 执业证书号：S0010524070002 电话：13816562460 邮箱：pannx@hazq.com [Table_Compa ...

债市回调，但情绪依然乐观 ——债市情绪面周报（7 月第 3 周） [Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号：S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com | | | [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 主要观点： ⚫[Table_Summary] 当前债市，卖方看多，买方看震荡 近期反内卷及消费政策扰动、基建板块走强带动债市表现偏弱，大税期 后资金面整体平稳（周一央行公开市场操作有所回笼），对应利率小幅上行。 展望后市，7 月政治局会议超预期增量政策概率可能不大，但市场仍对央行 重启国债买卖抱有预期，8 月中美关税前景依然存在变数，预计下半年基本 面难空债市；在微观层面，随着大行进一步加大存单、短端国债的净买入， 曲线陡峭化的程度可能会继续维持，债市横盘三个月，当前投资者各类策略 使用程度已经相当饱和，市场拥挤度高，往后继续震荡的概率较大。 从市场情 ...

1 证券研究报告 中国潮玩全球化：IP生态与千亿市场新范式 分析师：金荣（S0010521080002） 分析师：赵亮（S0010525070001） 2025年7月21日 华安证券研究所 华安证券研究所 华安研究• 拓展投资价值 • 不同地区的潮玩行业处于不同的发展阶段，从空间上来看：1）中国：潮玩行业兴起+国内涌现数个优质IP运营商，可培育国内IP消费需 求+当前人均潮玩花费较低，未来具备较高增长弹性；2）东南亚+拉美：人口红利（年轻化消费群体的结构性优势）+渠道红利（电商快 速渗透），潜力巨大；3）北美+欧洲：市场成熟，存量市场存在需求切换趋势，即媒介变革+传统IP审美疲劳下推动消费需求由传统内容 IP向新兴形象IP切换。 • IP生命周期探讨：内容IP和形象IP的生命周期和特征均存在明显差异。一般来说，内容IP生命周期普遍长于形象IP，完整的世界观也决定 了IP衍生价值天花板更高，整体呈现长周期+启动慢+生命周期长的特点；形象IP爆发快、波动大，后期依赖运营续命，长尾价值受限。 • 泡泡玛特成长性几何？Labubu并不能决定泡泡玛特的成长天花板，泡泡玛特的核心优势是拥有不断培育新IP去开启下一轮周期的 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType] 轻工纺服 行业周报 半年报预告密集披露，业绩分化明显 行业[Table_IndRank] 评级：增 持 报告日期： 2025-07-20 [行业指数与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 执业证书号：S0010523120001 邮箱：xucai@hazq.com 分析师：余倩莹 执业证书号：S0010524040004 邮箱：yuqianying@hazq.com [Table_Report] 相关报告 《行业周报：外卖大战持续升级，包 装企业有望受益_20250713》 主要观点： -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 轻工制造（申万） 纺织服饰（申万） 沪深300 [分析师：徐 Table_Author] 偲 2025 年 7 月 14 日至 7 月 18 日，上证综指上涨 0.69%，深证成指上 涨 2.04%，创业板指上涨 3.17%。分行业来看，申万轻工制造上涨 0.08%，相较沪深 300 指数-1.01pct，在 31 个申万一级行业指数中排 名 21；申万纺织服饰上涨 0.24%，相较沪深 300 指数-0.85pct，在 ...

[Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 策略研究 周度报告 反内卷和科技行情还能走多远？ [Table_RptDate] 报告日期： 2025-07-20 分析师：刘超 执业证书号：S0010520090001 电话：13269985073 邮箱：liuchao@hazq.com 分析师：张运智 执业证书号：S0010523070001 电话：13699270398 邮箱：zhangyz@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号：S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱：rensy@hazq.com 分析师：陈博 执业证书号：S0010525070002 电话：18811134382 邮箱：chenbo@hazq.com 相关报告 1.策略周报《本轮地产行情还有多大 空间？—第 28 周》2025-07-13 2.策略周报《"反内卷"行情能否成为 新主线？—第 27 周》2025-07-06 3.策略月报《扰动在前，提升在后 — 2025 年 7 月 A 股市场研判 ...

[Table_IndNameRptType]2 固定收益 固收周报 债市横盘三个月后的微观变化 ——债市机构行为周报（7 月第 3 周） 报告日期： 2025-07-20 [Table_Author] 首席分析师：颜子琦 执业证书号：S0010522030002 电话：13127532070 邮箱：yanzq@hazq.com ⚫ 风险提示 流动性风险，数据统计与提取产生的误差。 [Table_Author] 分析师：洪子彦 执业证书号： S0010525060002 电话：15851599909 邮箱：hongziyan@hazq.com 本周综述： ⚫[Table_Summary] 债市横盘期，机构行为四点变化 债市当前已经横盘三个月。在 4 月初对等关税扰动后，十年国债到期收 益率下行至 1.65%，随后整体在 1.65%-1.70%区间波动，横盘至今已有 三个月，微观视角下，债市发生了哪些变化？ 第一是大行的机构行为，不止于买入短端国债，存单需求也在提升。5 月下旬大行增加 1-3Y 期限国债买入，6 月初开始明显增加 1Y 以下国 债，与此同时根据我们统计的机构存单需求（一级认购+二级成交）， 大行 ...

公司点评 25Q2 业绩超预期，市场布局持续优化 | | | | [Table_BaseData] 收盘价（元） | 89.29 | | --- | --- | | 近 12 个月最高/最低（元） | 95.00/39.70 | | 总股本（百万股） | 218 | | 流通股本（百万股） | 144 | | 流通股比例（%） | 66.40 | | 总市值（亿元） | 194 | | 流通市值（亿元） | 129 | [公司价格与沪深 Table_Chart] 300 走势比较 [Table_Author] 分析师：徐偲 匠心家居（ [Table_StockNameRptType] 301061） 2025 年第一季度，公司 89.45%的产品出口至美国市场，77.95%的产 品经由越南出口，当前布局充分体现了越南在公司全球供应链体系中的 枢纽作用，同时也验证了公司在成本控制与国际物流效率方面的综合竞 争力。自 4 月初起，公司出口美国市场的部分产品开始受到对等关税政 策的影响，尽管新一轮关税的实施在时间上有所延后、税率也有调整， 但公司基于与客户的长期战略合作关系，主动承担了部分新增税负，短 期内对公司利 ...

[Table_StockNameRptType] 策略研究 专题报告 稳抓手、牛同步、宽基化——我国 A 股 ETF 发展的三大预判 [Table_RptDate] 报告日期：2025-07-18 [Table_Author] 分析师：郑小霞 执业证书号：S0010520080007 电话：13391921291 邮箱：zhengxx@hazq.com 分析师：任思雨 执业证书号： S0010523070003 电话：18501373409 邮箱： rensy@hazq.com 主要观点 啊在此前[Table_Summary] 自 2024 年 9 月底以来，A 股市场 ETF 资金涌入量激增。2024 年全年 A 股市场 的 ETF 规模同比增速高达 81.6%，ETF 的市场规模越来越大，份额占比越来越 高，对 A 股的影响越来越大，因而我们研究相对比较成熟的 ETF 市场美国以 及先于 A 股发展 ETF 的亚洲市场中的日本和中国台湾地区的 ETF 的变化特 征，为 A 股 ETF 市场未来发展提供借鉴。 ⚫ ETF 产品多数起源于救助或稳定资本市场的需求 在美国、日本和中国台湾地区，ETF 最初基本上 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The platinum market faces a structural shortage, with supply contraction in South Africa, stable demand from automotive exhaust catalysts, and incremental demand from the hydrogen energy industry and jewelry sector. The global platinum market's core contradiction lies in the high dependence on South Africa for supply (accounting for over 70% of production in 2024), but reduced capital expenditure and low recycling have led to a continuous supply contraction (CAGR of -1% from 2015 - 2025). On the demand side, automotive exhaust catalysts (accounting for 43% in 2024) provide a rigid foundation, and the rapid growth of plug - in hybrid vehicles still requires PGM catalysts. The hydrogen energy industry and gold substitution (high gold prices driving platinum jewelry consumption) offer elastic growth [3]. - The influx of risk - averse funds and continuous supply disruptions have led to a continuous increase in platinum prices. Geopolitical conflicts have strengthened the financial attribute of platinum, attracting risk - averse funds. Supply disruptions have also played a catalytic role. In Q1 2025, platinum mine supply decreased by 13% year - on - year (-117,000 ounces) due to factors such as heavy rainfall and floods in South African mining areas, low smelting capacity utilization in South Africa and Zimbabwe, and mine restructuring in North America. The high gold - platinum ratio in history indicates an undervaluation of platinum's value, which may attract value investment. However, the recent continuous rise in platinum prices still depends on market consensus. If the consensus is strengthened, the value center has room for continuous upward movement, and platinum's value fluctuations largely depend on market sentiment [3]. - Investment advice: On the supply side, short - term production cuts in South Africa cause supply fluctuations, and inventory is currently at a low level. In the long - term, low capital expenditure leads to supply contraction, and high supply concentration poses certain risks. On the demand side, traditional industrial demand is relatively stable, and the rapid growth of plug - in hybrid vehicles still requires PGM catalysts. High gold prices promote platinum substitution in the jewelry field. It is recommended to focus on the "resources + technology" line and pay attention to relevant companies [3]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Platinum Metal Properties and Industrial Chain Structure - Platinum group metals include platinum, palladium, rhodium, etc., with high melting points, high strength, excellent thermoelectric stability, high - temperature oxidation resistance, and corrosion resistance. Platinum and palladium have strong gas adsorption capacity and excellent catalytic properties, and are widely used in automotive exhaust catalysts, jewelry, electronic components, and chemical catalysts [8]. 3.2 Supply - Demand Contradictions Are Prominent, and Structural Shortage Intensifies Supply - Platinum ore supply is relatively concentrated, with South Africa accounting for about 70% of production. In 2024, global platinum ore production was 170 tons, with South Africa producing 120 tons, accounting for 70.6% of the global total. In terms of reserves, South Africa accounted for 88.73% of the global platinum - group metal reserves in 2023. Due to reduced capital expenditure in platinum ore projects and low recycling enthusiasm in the past decade, the total platinum supply is expected to fall below 7 million ounces in 2025, with a CAGR of -1% from 2015 - 2025 [13]. Demand - Platinum has obvious industrial attributes, and automotive exhaust purification demand accounts for about 40%. In 2024, the demand for platinum in automotive exhaust purification accounted for 43%. The hydrogen energy industry may become a future trend, and the growth of hybrid vehicle demand will also bring benefits. Although the demand for platinum in the automotive field is expected to remain high in the long - term, economic prospects are still uncertain [19]. - Jewelry demand has a small base but considerable elastic space. High gold prices have affected gold jewelry demand, and platinum jewelry is expected to fill the gap. The gold - platinum ratio exceeded 3 in February 2025 and回调 to about 2.46 as of July 1. According to WPIC, the year - end inventory is expected to drop sharply, leading to a tightening of market supply, and platinum may become a hedging product [24]. 3.3 Influx of Risk - Averse Funds + Continuous Supply Disruptions, Platinum Prices Rise Continuously - Platinum prices have shown a strong upward trend recently, with an increase of about 34% in the past two months, reaching a high level in the past 10 years. Future price trends still need to pay attention to the impact of economic data on precious metal prices [28]. - Supply disruptions and the gold substitution effect have led to the recent rise in platinum prices. On the supply side, South Africa, which supplies about 70% of platinum production, has been affected by bad weather, restricting mining and refining operations, and recycling metal supply is also at a low level. On the demand side, in addition to the basic demand for platinum as an automotive exhaust catalyst, the substitution effect of platinum jewelry for gold jewelry is obvious, and investment demand and the hedging attribute of platinum have attracted investors. The hydrogen energy concept also gives platinum a certain bullish attribute [31]. - The gold - platinum ratio is at a historical high, and the future price center still depends on market consensus. Gold and platinum prices diverged about a decade ago, with gold's financial attribute becoming prominent while platinum focused on industrial attributes. Around 2013, platinum prices recovered due to supply contraction, increased industrial and investment demand, and a shift in market sentiment. Currently, the gold - platinum ratio is at a historical high, and platinum is undervalued. Whether it can attract value investment depends on market consensus, and platinum's value fluctuations largely depend on market sentiment [38]. 3.4 Core Targets: Guiyan Platinum Industry, Haotong Technology, Huayang New Materials Guiyan Platinum Industry - The company focuses on the manufacturing of precious metal new materials and has established a complete industrial chain system. It has built a precious metal resource recycling industry, carried out full - life - cycle management of precious metals, and established a precious metal supply service platform. It has formed a closed - loop industrial chain from precious metal supply, product processing to waste recycling [48]. - The company has strong R & D capabilities and independent innovation. Relying on the research and development foundation of the State Key Laboratory of New Technologies for Comprehensive Utilization of Rare and Precious Metals and the Kunming Institute of Precious Metals, it has continuously made breakthroughs in high - end materials such as precious metal precursor materials, catalytic materials, and electronic pastes. In 2024, the production of precious metal precursor products increased by more than 20% year - on - year, and the profit of precious metal electronic pastes increased by more than 30% year - on - year [48]. Haotong Technology - The company's three major business segments develop synergistically, and its full - chain service has created core competitiveness. It focuses on the precious metal recycling field, and its business includes precious metal recycling, new materials mainly composed of precious metals, and trade. It has formed a closed - loop from raw material supply to new material manufacturing and recycling, meeting customers' cyclical needs [51]. - The company has leading core technologies. Its independently developed platinum dissolution solution enrichment technology and other technologies are at the international leading level, and its sponge platinum products have a high reputation in the industry. It has advantages in environmental protection, safety, and cost, providing customers with more competitive prices [51]. Huayang New Materials - The company is supported by state - owned enterprise resources and has a full - industrial - chain layout. As a provincial - level state - owned enterprise in Shanxi, it has natural advantages in order acquisition, policy support, and resource approval. Its subsidiary, Huashengfeng Company, is the first domestic precious metal recycling and processing enterprise for producing platinum catalytic nets for nitric acid production. The company also has an industrial chain advantage in "PBAT - modified materials - products" [57]. - As of July 17, 2025, the PE - TTM of Guiyan Platinum Industry, Huayang New Materials, and Haotong Technology were 20, - 62, and 35 times respectively, and the PB were 1.66, 23.88, and 2.81 times respectively. With the rise in platinum prices, relevant companies are expected to improve their performance and digest valuations. According to institutional consensus forecasts, Guiyan Platinum Industry's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2025, 2026, and 2027 will be 696 million yuan, 826 million yuan, and 955 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE of 16.9, 14.2, and 12.3 times at the current stock price [58].

Investment Rating - Investment rating is maintained as "Buy" [2] Core Views - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of 8.2 to 9.1 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 51.37% to 67.98% [6] - In the first half of 2025, copper production is projected to be 353,600 tons, up 12.68% year-on-year, and cobalt production is expected to be 61,100 tons, up 13.05% year-on-year [7] - The company completed the acquisition of Lumina Gold in June 2025, gaining 100% ownership of the Cangrejos gold mine in Ecuador, which has a resource reserve of 1.376 billion tons and a gold content of 638 tons [8] - The projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 16.217 billion, 18.093 billion, and 18.759 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10.67, 9.57, and 9.23 [9] Financial Summary - The company anticipates a revenue of 213.029 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 14.4%, and projected revenues of 223.839 billion, 232.065 billion, and 240.274 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [11] - The gross profit margin is expected to be 16.5% in 2024, increasing to 17.0% by 2026 and remaining stable in 2027 [11] - The return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 19.1% in 2024, peaking at 20.2% in 2025, and then declining to 18.3% by 2027 [11]