2024年7月PMI数据点评：景气度季节性回落，期待新一轮政策加力

Manufacturing PMI - Manufacturing PMI in July 2024 fell by 0.1 percentage points to 49.4%, remaining below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months[1] - New orders index dropped by 0.2 percentage points to 49.3%, indicating weak demand for three consecutive months[1] - Production index decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 50.1%, still in expansion but showing a downward trend for three months[1] Large vs. Small Enterprises - Large enterprises' PMI rose by 0.4 percentage points to 50.5%, while medium and small enterprises' PMI fell by 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points to 49.4% and 46.7%, respectively[1] - Large enterprises' production and new orders indices remained in expansion at 52.1% and 50.6%, supporting stable manufacturing operations[8] Price Indices and Inventory - Raw material purchase price index dropped by 1.8 percentage points to 49.9%, falling below the boom-bust line for the first time in a year[12] - Finished product inventory index fell by 0.5 percentage points to 47.8%, indicating weak inventory replenishment[13] Non-Manufacturing PMI - Non-manufacturing PMI declined by 0.3 percentage points to 50.2%, with services PMI touching the boom-bust line at 50.0% for the first time in seven months[17] - Construction PMI fell by 1.1 percentage points to 51.2%, affected by seasonal factors and slower local government bond issuance[18] Export and Import - New export orders index rose by 0.2 percentage points to 48.5%, while import index increased by 0.1 percentage points to 47.0%, both remaining below the boom-bust line[4] - Short-term export resilience is expected due to potential preemptive export actions amid trade friction concerns[4]