2024年7月PMI数据点评：产能利用率回升与投资高增支撑供给端景气

Supply and Demand - July PMI for manufacturing is at 49.4%, a decrease of 0.1 percentage points month-on-month, indicating continued contraction for three consecutive months[3] - Production index and new orders index are at 50.1% and 49.3%, down 0.5 and 0.2 percentage points respectively, reflecting a stronger supply side compared to demand[3] - New export orders index is at 48.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from June, but still in contraction territory[3] Price Trends - PMI raw material price index is at 49.9%, down 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in raw material prices due to falling commodity prices and insufficient market demand[4] - PMI finished goods price index is at 46.3%, down 1.6 percentage points, reflecting a similar downward trend in prices[4] Inventory and Business Sentiment - Raw material inventory index is at 47.8%, up 0.2 percentage points, while finished goods inventory index is at 47.8%, down 0.5 percentage points, both remaining in contraction territory[4] - Manufacturing production expectations index is at 53.1%, down 1.3 percentage points, indicating a slight decrease in business confidence but still within a high sentiment range[5] Structural Insights - Large enterprises' PMI is at 50.5%, up 0.4 percentage points, while medium and small enterprises' PMIs are at 49.4% and 46.7%, down 0.4 and 0.7 percentage points respectively, highlighting a significant disparity in business conditions across different enterprise sizes[4] - The construction industry PMI is at 51.2%, down 1.1 percentage points, affected by slower issuance of special bonds and adverse weather conditions[5] Future Outlook - Supply side is expected to remain stable, while the demand side awaits the release of policy effects, with special bond issuance anticipated to accelerate in the third quarter[6] - Risks include potential underperformance of macro policies, unexpected changes in overseas monetary policies, and geopolitical risks affecting global supply chains[6]